Wen 丨 entrepreneurship is at the forefront, author 丨 Fu Yancui, editor 丨 Feng Yu
In 2021, intermediaries around Beijing witnessed an era in which the real estate market is fading.
Looking back at the beginning of 2021, affected by the epidemic, some developers launched 1,000 yuan online booking, 7 days worry-free refund, smashing golden eggs to win home appliance gift packages, trying to stir up a little splash in the real estate industry.
By the end of 2021, developers began to use various price reductions and marketing methods in order to sell a few more apartments. For example, the price of a new house in Gu'an, which was once as low as 13,000 yuan per square meter, has now dropped to more than 10,000 yuan. Most real estate also provides down payment can be installment service, buy a house can send parking spaces, individual real estate can also see the sending of "terrace + parking space" "basement + parking space" and other activities. Developers are eager to get more money back.
Real estate agent Liu Wei revealed to the "forefront of entrepreneurship" that in recent times, many projects can carry out down payment installment activities, such as the first down payment of 50,000-80,000, the remaining down payment can be paid off in one year or two years, "Developers want consumers to quickly buy a house and return the funds, so now 80% of the projects will send parking spaces as standard." ”
However, with the continuous decline in the real estate market price in Beijing, buyers have been afraid to enter the market easily under the mentality of "buying up and not buying down".
The agents' source of salary is the sale of houses. As home buyers become more rational, workers in real estate around Beijing also begin to become insecure: some people begin to flee the market, some people are in a state of wandering, but they do not know how to escape, and where to go after fleeing.
When the pain of the real estate industry comes, the real estate agents in the front line are deeply feeling the new round of changes in the market.
1. Quiet sales office
At noon on an ordinary weekday, Liu Qian put down the mobile phone that was playing the game in her hand and picked up the sales office phone that had not rang for a long time. Listening to the voice call was a middle-aged man, who answered the question of the price of the property and the basic information of the house as usual, and within a minute, the call was declared over.
"There are not many such consultation calls, and there is generally no follow-up." Liu Qian is the front desk of the sales center of a real estate in Yanjiao, her job is to occasionally answer the customer's consultation call, sometimes there are customers to consult the sales center, she will also introduce the surrounding facilities and prices of the building to the customers.
Liu Qian dropped out of high school because of her low education, and at first she was the most common worker on the assembly line of an electronics factory in Langfang. Later, she felt that the work of various factories was too depressing, so she worked as a waiter in a hotel in Beijing, but when the epidemic came, her hotel failed to withstand the impact and closed.
At that time, she met her current husband, who was also a local in Yanjiao and worked as a real estate agent in Yanjiao for several years, with a house and a car. Coinciding with that time, his real estate developer was recruiting a front desk, Liu Qian also felt that under the epidemic, it was more troublesome to run at both ends of Beijing and Yanjiao, so she entered the real estate industry, "Although the salary is not much, but think about how we can usually work together." ”
And the recent state of being able to play games during work is from the second half of 2021, and she can clearly feel that "the pace of work has slowed down." ”
At the beginning of 2020, in fact, the real estate market in Yanjiao was still lively. At that time, news of the relaxation of settlement in Sanhe City, Hebei Province, began to circulate among real estate sales and intermediary groups, and in mid-March, the relaxation of settlement restrictions in Yanjiao was already a public "secret", and hundreds of people lined up every day to settle in Yanjiao. To this end, the price of second-hand houses in yanjiao housing market has risen a little.
"We were very busy during that time, there were a lot of consultation calls, and some people went to the sales office to consult the situation of the real estate, after all, my husband has been in the industry for several years, real estate resources are more, every day is very busy." Liu Qian recalled that that time was also one of the few busy stages she had experienced in the real estate industry, "every day the phone rang non-stop. ”
But by 2021, with the impact of the epidemic, the price of real estate in Yanjiao is getting lower and lower, and her and her husband's work have begun to be idle, "especially at the end of last year, my husband is also obviously idle, and occasionally we will play a game 'double row'." She continued, "Over the past year, as property prices have continued to fall, it feels like our sales office is getting quieter and quieter, and no one usually comes." ”
Today, the cold silence of Yanjiao housing market is something that the intermediaries who experienced the crazy era in the early years did not expect.
In 2014, the introduction of the "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration" strategy made the property market around Beijing soar, and the drama of "grabbing houses" in Gu'an, Yanjiao and Dachang and other places seems to be still yesterday.
Gao Weiwei, another real estate agent who worked in Gu'an for 8 years, recalled that at that time, the figure of real estate agents could be seen at intersections, sidewalks and shopping mall entrances. They held real estate flyers with their contact information in their hands, and sent them to passing pedestrians, passing bicycle or electric car owners, and even car owners who occasionally stopped in the middle of the road because of red lights, and they were also their target customers. ”
In the sales office, the salesmen hold a pen and paper in their hands from time to time, calculating to the customer how much the down payment of the property needs, the loan needs to be geometric; some people then call the customer to analyze the price of the house on the day, and share with the customer the news that the house in the building has just been sold.
Recalling the scene at that time, in stark contrast to the "depression" scene of today's real estate, Gao Weiwei is also a sigh.
"It's no secret, I've looked for a house in my address book a few years ago, but because I don't have enough money on hand, I've looked for them again." But they either bought a house last year or are ready to wait and see for a while, and there are very few customers who can close the deal. Gao Weiwei complained that Gu'an's house was becoming more and more difficult to sell.
In fact, the monitoring data of the Middle Finger Research Institute shows that from January to November 2021, the transaction area of Gu'an commercial housing was 486,000 square meters, down 32.6% year-on-year, at the second lowest level in the same period since 2010, only higher than the same period in 2018.
As real estate agents in the front line, they deeply feel the new round of changes in the market - in 2021, the real estate market around Beijing seems to have dropped to the "freezing point".
2, more and more "difficult to serve" customers
Zhao Liang remembers very clearly that on October 22 last year, at more than 3 p.m., there was an epidemic in Hebei, and vehicles in Beijing could not leave Beijing. He drove to Daxing to pick up customers to see the house in Gu'an, and this was the third time he had provided a shuttle service for this customer.
Because their willingness to buy a house is very high, Zhao Liang hopes to win in the quality of service. After the transfer service was in place, he also had to enthusiastically take the customer to the surrounding area of the building under construction, and also introduced various infrastructures one by one, and then looked at the environment of the community, and took a look at the scene of the house in the floor that the customer was looking for.
"The two of them are from Chengde, Hebei Province, usually work in Daxing, Beijing, and their children have already attended kindergartens around their company, and they are ready to transfer their children's hukou to Gu'an and go to school in Gu'an." Zhao Liang revealed that because they did not buy a house, they had to go back to Chengde to go to primary school, and it was inconvenient to be far away in the future. Their children go to school in September 2024, and before that, they have to free up time for renovation and scattering, so they are willing to buy a house.
This is also his favorite object of "raiders" as a real estate agent.
Zhao Liang told "the forefront of entrepreneurship" that he has been working in the real estate industry for more than 3 years, has been doing new home sales, and the customers he can deal with are mostly these young people who work around Beijing Daxing and can't afford to buy a house in Beijing, but their children are facing school problems.
He said that most of the workers in Beijing do not have the ability to buy a house, so foreigners want to stay in Beijing for a long time to work, and the real estate in Beijing is one or two times lower than the Price of the Beijing market, which has touched the hearts of these people.
"Compared with the price of the new house, although the price of the second-hand house is relatively lower, the foreigner needs to pay a 50% down payment to buy a second-hand house, while the purchase of a new house only needs to pay a 30% down payment, and after the house is delivered, the foreigner can quickly settle in Gu'an." Therefore, this part of the buyer's users not only has a high success rate of transactions, but also a fast decision-making speed. ”
Sure enough, it was the fastest of the customers he served last year, "The third time we met we signed the contract, and that afternoon we went to the bank to get a loan." ”
But since last year, the number of users with similar needs has also begun to decrease. Zhao Liang revealed, "Being able to sell a house a month is a good performance." And with most of the customers around the property several times, but the other party will still have no follow-up. ”
In fact, in 2020, the house price of new houses in Gu'an is 13,000-16,000 yuan / flat, but by 2021, some new house prices have fallen to 10,500-16,000 yuan / flat. With the continuous decline in house prices, buyers in the "buy up not buy down" mentality, many people dare not easily enter the market.
Customers in the second-hand housing market are more difficult to "get it done".
Liu Wei has been an intermediary in the real estate industry in Gu'an for 7 years and has experienced the golden age of profit-seeking in the real estate industry, so he can clearly feel the gap between the industry entering the "twilight era".
Liu Wei recalled that around 2016, he took customers to buy a house, basically did not consider the type of apartment, when taking customers to see the house, he was ready to take customers to see more houses, the other party will say that the legs hurt, do not want to see too much, and soon will be optimistic about the house.
Even when the Gu'an real estate market was at its hottest, many customers could not stare at the real estate in Gu'an because they lived in other places, so they spent a day or two looking forward to the real estate, and directly handed over the deposit of 20,000 yuan to Liu Wei, "The customers are very eager, they all say that no matter what floor, what kind of apartment, as long as there is a house, they must hurry to book for me." ”
Gao Weiwei also said that the real estate industry at that time was really crazy, "I remember that the house price in Gu'an had reached 28,000 / flat at that time, to be honest, I was a little panicked when I sold the house, but many beijing investment customers did not care, and the eyes were fixed without blinking." ”
But today's buyers, not only have room to negotiate prices, but also always think that the house has to reduce the price, and the apartment type is also particularly picky, such as the living room facing north, the entrance door is not looking at the toilet, and the community is older than not looking.
What makes Liu Wei feel more critical of customers is that consumers have changed from the "leak picking" mentality in 2020 to the mentality of "can still drop again" in 2021. "Now the house is actually very cheap, but the buyer will cut another 30,000-50,000 yuan." He added.
Not only that, but the time for customers to make decisions has also become longer. Before the customer's decision-making cycle may be about a month, but now it is three months to lay the bottom, everyone feels that Gu'an this house price still has to fall, so obviously just need consumers, but also afraid of buying expensive, "now customers are this momentum." ”
From customers everywhere to more and more picky consumers, it can be seen that the real estate market around Beijing is also returning to rationality.
3. The intermediary flees the real estate
Most people come to real estate for a high salary, and the ultimate source of salary is to sell a house. However, as the real estate business in the Ring Beijing market becomes more and more difficult to do, some people have begun to choose to "flee" from the industry.
Liu Wei told "the forefront of entrepreneurship" that before a two-bedroom apartment can sell for 1 million yuan, now a two-bedroom apartment can only be 700,000 yuan, the house price has shrunk by 30%, the intermediary fee has to shrink by 30%, and now in Gu'an to sell a second-hand house, the sales commission is 2000-3000 yuan, and they can sell one or two suites a month.
"Now my average monthly salary is about 8,000 yuan, and around 2016, I can earn more than 300,000 yuan a year and sell up to 12 houses a month." He helplessly said that at that time, he had only entered the real estate industry for a few years, and he did not have much experience and customer resources. Now that he has been working in the industry for many years, he has not made money before.
"There is no money left in life today." In mid-2019, Liu Wei felt that the price of Gu'an real estate had stabilized, so he changed a house of more than 100 square meters, with a loan of 30 years and a monthly mortgage of 5,000 yuan. That is to say, he only has a salary of 3,000 yuan per month, but he has to use it to raise cars, raise babies and socialize, etc., "completely 'moonlight'." ”
Feeling that the dividends of the real estate industry are disappearing, Liu Wei has gradually developed a sense of crisis.
"With a monthly payment, when you can't keep up with your income, you will definitely have a sense of crisis." This feeling is especially pronounced in 2021. "But although he is insecure in the real estate industry, he does not know how to escape and where to go after escaping."
Last year, Liu Wei considered changing industries to work hard, but he didn't know what he could do after leaving. Now he still has an income of 8,000 yuan per month, but many industries in Gu'an cannot reach this salary level. There are also people who want to live in Beijing, but that day he chatted with a customer, and the price of a second bedroom in Beijing is 3,000 yuan.
"If you add more than 3,000 rents, it is better to stay in Gu'an." Even if you earn less, the cost of living inside and out is not much stressful. Think of me dragging my family with my mouth, and I don't want to move. ”
The sales of houses that can also be sold choose to stay in this industry, and some intermediaries choose to leave the market because they cannot sell performance.
Lulu, who has not eaten dividends like Liu Wei, has only done real estate sales for 2 months, and chose to withdraw from this market because she did not make a profit.
Lulu only graduated in June this year, because she has no work experience and her parents work in Yanjiao, so she chose to find a real estate sales job in Yanjiao, "as long as you work hard, you can get what you want. On the contrary, two months of light took a guarantee of 2500 yuan, which was not enough to live on their own. ”
Recently, Lulu has begun a new round of interviews, and as for her previous work experience in the real estate industry, she has deliberately hidden, "I did not sell the house, it is a bit humiliating, and I am afraid that the employer will think that my work ability is not good." After that, Lulu began to deliberately avoid real estate-related companies when looking for a job.
As a senior intermediary, Liu Wei felt more deeply. For developers, when the market is cold, it is more necessary for sales personnel to promote sales and accelerate payment collection. Therefore, the industry has been constantly entered, "the threshold for real estate sales is very low, as long as you are over 18 years old and want to enter the industry, you can enter the industry." Therefore, many of the new graduates and high school dropouts every year will choose to enter the industry. ”
However, as the real estate industry becomes more and more difficult to do, more and more people are leaving the industry.
"Compared to 2016, real estate sales in Gu'an today are at least one-third less." Liu Wei revealed that he usually pays attention to the dynamics of various companies and also counts the data every year. As far as he knows, a real estate company in Gu'an had more than 400 people at its peak, and now it has become about 300 people. Including the real estate company he works for now, nearly a third of the people who have left the company.
"And the real estate industry doesn't even count as layoffs." There are also subsidies for people who lay off employees, but as a salesman, you are fired without performance for three months. Liu Wei said that this industry does not have five insurances and one gold, no holidays, and can only be adjusted for 4 days a month on weekdays. Many people don't earn money, and when they work for two or three months, they will choose to leave their jobs.
When there is no continuous positive policy and no signs of real estate price increases, leaving seems to be an inevitable choice for real estate workers.
4. The golden age is over
Liu Wei prefers to use the word "bland" to summarize the overall property market in Gu'an in 2021, "the market is not very good." ”
In 2020, many investors in the Beijing market have found it bad. At that time, Liu Wei felt that the determination of investors to withdraw from the market was quite large.
He said he met many homeowners who wanted to sell their houses in Gu'an and buy them in Beijing. Or see that Shenyang rose by 3,000-5,000 yuan per square meter in the previous year, and xi'an, Hangzhou and other cities also have room for price increases, and they will choose to invest in real estate in these places.
However, in 2021, investors who choose to stay in the market without a keen nerve choose to sell their properties because they urgently need to withdraw funds, resulting in more unsatisfactory house prices.
Liu Wei revealed that there was a group of investors doing business, who had money in their hands before, and bought several properties when the house price was only four or five thousand. Now that their business needs to turn around, they will choose to sell the property at a low price.
Because the main body of second-hand house sales is an individual, unlike the developer is an overall salesman, when individuals are in a hurry to use money, they are thinking about how to get the money as soon as possible, so price reduction is their main method. But in this way, although he is the only one who chooses to reduce prices, but now the sales information is transparent, and the price information can be searched on the Internet, so after he reduces the price, the price of the entire community will also be pulled down.
It seems that the general trend is so, with the withdrawal of this group of investors from the Ring Beijing market, even developers can't help but start to reduce prices - house prices are becoming more and more "falling".
Liu Wei revealed that developers build a residential area, from land acquisition, construction, acceptance, and then to sales and delivery, which is a costly thing. "Now the average cost of light construction is 3,000 yuan / flat, plus the cost of obtaining land and paying taxes and labor, the cost per flat is as high as seven or eight thousand yuan." However, in order to withdraw funds, it also had to be sold at a reduced price. ”
Time back to the end of 2016, with the introduction of the "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration" strategy in 2014 for two years, the real estate in the Beijing-ring area such as Gu'an, Yanjiao and Dachang officially ushered in a wave of "jumping". The price of real estate that rises every day continues to stimulate the nerves of consumers and real estate developers.
At that time, because of the continuous soaring market prices, the real estate in their hands became "fragrant". Consumers transfer the cash in their hands directly to the familiar real estate agent, just so that the agent can grab the real estate house they are looking at at the first time. In order to maximize the benefits, real estate developers hold houses in their hands, but they are only willing to sell 5 sets a day.
"Because the price of selling the next day may increase exponentially, during that time, the real estate market often saw dozens of salespeople grabbing single-digit properties."
However, the Huanjing property market, which has only been brilliant for a few years, has obviously gradually returned to rationality. Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, especially under the influence of the strict epidemic prevention and control in Beijing and the intermittent outbreak of the epidemic in Hebei, the real estate market around Beijing is once again facing adjustment pressure.
Nowadays, looking at Gao Weiwei's circle of friends, it is a variety of news about the recovery of the real estate industry that is frequently shared, but when asked how long she thinks spring will wait, she has not answered.
It seems that the golden age of profit-seeking real estate in Beijing is completely over.
Note: The names in this article are pseudonyms.