In the first week of the year of the tiger in 2022, in the new year of China's auto market, what are the new technologies and new directions that everyone is looking forward to?
1. The skateboard platform has become a new "outlet" in the industry.
"The world's martial arts, only fast is not broken" put into the automotive industry, the same applies. Is there a technology that can launch a new car soon? Of course there is – skateboard platform technology. It's like a blank canvas on which you can draw anything you want.
The skateboard platform is actually to complete the development of all the car bodies at one time, and then according to the needs of the market, install a shell on the body, such as the recent MPV fire sold, I immediately out of the MPV shell; recently the "mecha wind" is very hot, I immediately out of the "mecha wind" shell. Because the research and development has long been completed, even the experiment does not have to run, the car company only needs to solve the problem of "vest (body)", that is, the problem of one shape + four stools. It will greatly reduce the development cycle and cost of new models. Building a car has become so easy.
In 2022, under the change of new technologies, late-starter car companies, or new forces that have just gone to the sea to build cars, if they can step on the outlet of the skateboard platform, they can produce a car in 1-3 months, if this car, the market response is general, I will immediately produce a new car. I can use the resources of one car to make ten different cars listed, shoot arrows at the same time, and fight with competitors.
The independent head car companies Geely, Changan, Great Wall, BYD, etc., still follow the traditional car-making concept, follow the Toyota model, and make a car for a period of 36 months. However, for the late-starter companies, there is no baggage, using the short cycle and low-cost characteristics of the skateboard platform to continuously harass the opponent, there is a chance to quickly catch up with the big team, and even stage the counterattack plot of the snake swallowing the elephant. If some car companies do not catch up with this outlet, they may face accelerated elimination.
2, L3 intelligent driving technology has become the short board of most car companies
It is expected that in 2023, the state will liberalize the L3, and cars equipped with L3 can be legally on the road. But at present, except for Tesla, no car company is mastering the so-called L3 intelligent driving technology. The core technology of smart driving is monopolized by Internet companies such as Huawei and Baidu. And Huawei, Baidu, by looking for an agent or personally building a car, if you want to increase the bargaining power of your own products, you will definitely build a technical barrier to L3 intelligent driving, hello I hello everyone good situation no longer exists.
However, intelligent driving technology has always been regarded as the most powerful selling point of automotive products, and if there is no L3 technology in the future, in the increasingly fierce competition, it will be quickly thrown away and lose the premium ability of the product.
This actually brings invisible pressure to many car companies, do car companies have more L3 technology? Tech companies with L3 technology don't play with themselves, so what to do? What are the criteria for defining and opening up L3 in national policies? Is it the same as the current definition of the industry? These are all questions that car companies need to seriously consider in 2022.
In 2022, more car companies will focus on intelligent driving technology, make up for their shortcomings, and recast their "soul". After all, electrification is only a process, and intelligence is the ultimate goal of automobile development.
3, lack of core and less electricity, new energy subsidies declined
The shortage of chips in 2022 will be alleviated to a certain extent, but it is still too early to say that it will be fully solved. The automotive chip industry is almost monopolized by Renesas, NXP, Infineon, etc., and the first-tier suppliers represented by Bosch have almost all built factories for automotive chips in Southeast Asia, and due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, chip production has been reduced by 40%. Although the upstream has begun to build additional factories and expand production capacity, it will take time for new factories to release production capacity, and the "lack of core" in the automotive industry in 2022 is still the main theme.
At the beginning of 2022, lithium carbonate, the raw material of power batteries, rose wildly. On January 1, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in East China was 282,000 yuan / ton, and industrial grade lithium carbonate was 266,000 yuan / ton. On January 27, the comprehensive price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 350,000-383,000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 360,000-410,000 yuan / ton, an increase of 31.6% and 27.7% respectively. Battery giants Ningde era, AVIC lithium batteries have also raised prices. In 2022, the "less electricity" in the automotive industry will be normalized.
At the beginning of the year, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022, which will be implemented from January 1, 2022. The subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% compared with 2021. All will be withdrawn at the end of the year. That is to say, millet, Jidu, etc., which will only be listed in 2023, cannot enjoy state subsidies.
As soon as 2022 opens, the global chip shortage continues, power batteries have increased prices, and the national new energy vehicle subsidies have fallen by 30%, indicating that car companies will also follow the price increase. While the start wasn't beautiful, 2022 is a fleeting opportunity for the automotive industry. It is impossible to be like the protagonist's aura in the TV series "Beginning", an infinite cycle of trial and error. Although the road is tortuous, we still forge ahead.
4. Sales of new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 5 million
2022, is destined to be a year of opportunities and challenges coexisting, a new round of technological innovation has been opened, whether it is a skateboard platform or L3 automatic driving technology, as long as it occupies one, it can attack the city and plunder the land, leaving traditional car companies behind and turning the tables against the wind. On the other hand, chip shortages, battery price increases, and subsidies are also objective facts, but the inflection point of new energy vehicles has arrived, and these interference factors cannot stop the overall upward trend of the market.
In 2022, the mainland's macro economy will continue to recover steadily, macro policies will promote automobile consumption, epidemic prevention and control will continue to improve, overseas demand will be strong, chip supply will gradually recover, and exports of new energy vehicles will continue to increase. At the end of this year, we will look at the Chinese auto market, and even the global auto market, which will be completely different from today.
There is no doubt that the era of new energy is coming. In 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 5 million, exceed 7.5 million in 2023, and will exceed 10 million in 2025, truly competing with fuel vehicles, and independent brands have the ability to overtake in curves.
New Year's Message: Yesterday has become history, tomorrow is still a mystery, today is a gift from God, cherish the present! Thank you to all the friends who pay attention to the circle meal for a year of support and love. In 2022, I will continue to share with you what I have seen and heard in the automotive industry! Welcome to exchange more! I wish you all a great deal of power and treasure! Tiger Fu Linmen, the source of wealth is widespread!
[I wish the attention, forwarding, liking, commenting, and collecting the guest officials and masters in 2022, good things will be continuous!] 】