The topic of "charging well or changing the power is strong" has been debated since the promotion of new energy vehicles. In March last year, Tesla executives and WEIlai executives launched a high-profile "air dialogue" on social platforms around charging mode and power exchange mode.
In recent years, under the influence of many favorable policies, the relatively slow development of the power exchange market has begun to receive attention. At the end of October last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice on Launching the Pilot Application of The New Energy Vehicle Power Exchange Mode", released the list of 11 pilot cities, and launched the pilot work of the application of the new energy vehicle power exchange mode for the first time nationwide.
On January 18, CATL officially announced that it entered the power exchange market, officially released the power exchange brand EVOGO, and emphasized that it can adapt to 80% of the world's listed models and the next 3 years. Before the power exchange pilot started, after the battery giant went down, can the power transfer passenger car break through the previous barriers and usher in a new stage of development?
01
Ningde era into the game To change the power circuit to add new strength
Before the release of the EVOGO brand, NINGDE era has begun to make moves in the field of power exchange. As early as 2020, CATL signed a contract with BAIC BJEV for the separation of vehicle and electricity projects. After that, CATL and Futian Zhilan New Energy jointly created a replacement point heavy truck. In December last year, CATL and the People's Government of Guizhou Province signed an agreement on cooperation in the construction of a power exchange network, and the two sides will carry out in-depth cooperation in the construction of new energy vehicle power exchange network facilities and the promotion of new energy vehicle power exchange capacity. As the first power battery company in the global market, the layout of the cataline era in the field of power exchange naturally brings a strong new force to the power exchange track.
Ningde times insiders said in an interview with The China Automobile News reporter that the mainland new energy vehicle market is developing rapidly, and while the penetration rate is rising, products and services are becoming more and more abundant and diversified, but mileage anxiety, energy replenishment anxiety and purchase costs have always been several major problems that plague the development of the new energy vehicle market. Using its own advantages to solve the pain points of user energy replenishment is a major driving force for the Ningde era to enter the field of power exchange. As the battery supplier of most car companies, CATL will occupy 52.1% of the market share of domestic power batteries in 2021, and its technology and market advantages in the field of power batteries will naturally become a powerful weapon to enter the field of power exchange.
"The power battery is the key to the separation of battery asset management companies and vehicle electricity value, and this is where the product and technical advantages of the Ningde era lie, and it is also the source of confidence for the Ningde era to devote itself to the power exchange market." The relevant person in charge of the Ningde era said so.
The overall solution of combined power exchange released by CATL is mainly composed of three major products: "chocolate power exchange block, quick change station and App". It is understood that the energy density of the chocolate exchange block is more than 160Wh/kg, the volume energy density is more than 325Wh/L, and a single battery can provide a cruising range of about 200 kilometers. It is worth mentioning that this combined power exchange can be applied to passenger cars and logistics vehicles from A00 class to B class and C class, and is suitable for 80% of the pure electric platform development models that have been listed in the world and will be launched in the next three years. This power exchange mode that breaks the boundaries of brands and models is bound to enhance the convenience of user energy replenishment.
The rapid replacement power station has four characteristics: small footprint, fast circulation, large capacity and all-weather. According to reports, a standard station only needs 3 parking spaces, a single block replacement time is about 1 minute, and 48 power replacement blocks can be stored in the station to ensure the rapid replacement of the power block of the quick change station. In addition, the CATL substation will also provide versions that adapt to the climatic and environmental conditions of different regions. The App supporting the power exchange service provides interconnection and service of people, vehicles, stations and blocks.
The power exchange mode means that the vehicle and electricity are separated, that is, the power battery will be independent of the new energy vehicle and be independent as a shared asset, and the ownership of battery assets and management and maintenance issues will be derived. CATL said it would be handed over to the battery bank for operation and maintenance. In this regard, Shao Yuanjun, research director of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Venture Capital Management Co., Ltd., said: "Battery bank is actually packaging batteries into a commodity, whether this model can work, still needs to be practiced." ”
According to Chen Weifeng, general manager of Times Electric Service Technology Co., Ltd., the first batch of CATL will take the lead in landing EVOGO power exchange services in 10 cities across the country. In addition, FAW Besturn will become the first automobile brand to incorporate its power exchange system, and FAW Besturn NAT combination power exchange version will become the first member of EVOGO's "Little Green Ring Family". Ningde times insiders told reporters that at present, the main engine factory is already negotiating cooperation with Ningde times, and there will be more power replacement models released in the future. For the Ningde era, different from the power battery business, the power replacement business belongs to the To C business, and how to deal with the C-end is the ability that the Ningde era urgently needs to improve.
02
Whether the "mainstream dream" of changing electricity can come true
According to the data of the China Electric Vehicle Charging and Swapping Infrastructure Promotion Alliance, by the end of 2021, the number of charging infrastructure in the country will reach 2.617 million, of which the total number of power exchange facilities is only 1298. It can be seen that the current power exchange mode is still a niche route. Driven by today's policy and market, is the power exchange model expected to become the mainstream energy replenishment method?
As early as 2020, substations and charging infrastructure were classified as new infrastructure and included in the government work report. In July of the same year, Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that enterprises are encouraged to develop power exchange mode models according to the use scenarios, and support Beijing, Hainan and other places to carry out pilot projects to promote the power exchange mode.
In April 2021, the "Safety Requirements for Electric Vehicle Replacement" (hereinafter referred to as the "Requirements"), proposed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and centralized by the National Automobile Standardization Technical Committee, was released and officially implemented on November 1. The "Requirements" contain the safety requirements, test methods and inspection rules for electric vehicle power exchange, and are the first basic general national standards designated by the automotive industry in the field of power exchange. In addition to taking steps in standardization, the policy is also constantly promoting the landing of the power exchange model.
In October of the same year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with the National Energy Administration, officially launched the pilot work of the new energy vehicle power exchange model. The cities included in the scope of the pilot include Beijing, Nanjing, Wuhan, Sanya, Chongqing, Changchun, Hefei and Jinan, as well as Yibin, Tangshan and Baotou, three cities with heavy truck characteristics, and it is expected to promote more than 100,000 power vehicles and more than 1,000 power stations.
A few days ago, the National Development and Reform Commission and other ten departments jointly issued the "Implementation Opinions on Further Improving the Service Guarantee Capacity of Charging and Replacing Infrastructure" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"), which pointed out that it is necessary to strengthen the promotion and application of the power exchange mode, focus on the mining farm, port, urban transfer and other scenarios, support the construction of special substations, accelerate the exploration and promotion of the vehicle-electricity separation model, and promote the electrification transformation of heavy trucks and internal collection cards in the port. Explore shared power exchange models in the fields of leasing, logistics and transportation, and optimize and improve shared power exchange services.
In addition, the "Opinions" emphasize that it is necessary to promote the formation of a unified power exchange standard in the main application areas and improve the safety, reliability and economy of the power exchange mode.
Along with various favorable policies, the power exchange market continues to grow. At present, the domestic electric vehicle market is a larger replacement operation enterprises such as Weilai, Aodong New Energy, Botan Technology and other enterprises, as of December 2021, Aodong New Energy has built 338 substations, and the number of Botan Technology substations is 107. Not long ago, the total number of new power stations in Weilai exceeded 800.
BAIC, Dongfeng, SAIC, Geely and other car companies have also successively launched the layout of power station replacement and power exchange models. Taking Geely as an example, not long ago, Geely joined hands with Lifan Technology to set up a power exchange brand Ruilan Automobile to build a full-dimensional vehicle-electricity separation and replacement ecology that realizes B-end and C-end users, operating users and private markets, covering cars, SUVs, MPVs, and even logistics vehicles, light trucks and many other categories of models, and it is expected to lay out more than 5,000 extremely fast power stations by 2025, covering more than 100 core cities.
In addition, traditional energy companies such as PetroChina and Sinopec have also set their sights on the power exchange model. In 2021, the substations cooperated by the two companies and NIO have been put into operation, and Sinopec also plans to lay out 5,000 charging and replacing power stations during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.
The policy has blown a spring breeze, enterprises have accelerated their development, and the electricity exchange market seems to be all the way to good. According to relevant data from enterprise investigation, as of November last year, there were 67,500 existing power exchange-related enterprises in the mainland, and in the first 10 months of last year alone, the number of new power exchange-related enterprises in the mainland reached 33,600, an increase of 184.83% year-on-year. According to Founder Securities, in 2025, the sales volume of passenger cars in mainland China will exceed 2.8 million, and the demand for supporting substations will be about 28,000 seats, corresponding to a market size of 76.5 billion yuan, which shows the rapid development of the power exchange market.
However, Shao Yuanjun believes that it is almost impossible for the power exchange mode to become the mainstream energy replenishment method. "The mainland has always adhered to the 'slow charge as the mainstay, fast charging as a supplement, and power replacement as a supplement', and the mainstream energy replenishment method in the future should still be slow charging." Shao Yuanjun introduced that the popularization of slow charging piles in the community has a smaller load on the power grid and a lower cost of transformation. In the power exchange mode, in order to ensure the full power state of the battery in the replacement power station, the battery that is replaced needs to be charged during the day, and the large-scale popularization will inevitably have a greater impact on the existing power grid.
In addition, if the power exchange mode is popularized, the amount of power battery consumption will also increase, or it will cause a waste of resources. The power exchange mode can become an important supplement to improve the experience of new energy vehicles, rather than the mainstream.
03
"Soul Theory" staged again?
Limited by the versatility of the power exchange platform, battery pack technology, etc., the current service object of the substation is relatively single, and a substation generally only serves a single vehicle brand. For example, NIO Power Station only supports NIO, and Aodong New Energy also mainly provides power exchange services for BAIC operating vehicles. However, CATL EVOGO intends to build a multi-model, multi-brand suitable universal substation. In the Ningde era, which transformed from a power battery supplier to a power business operator, the entire zero relationship with car companies is bound to change.
The Ningde era enters the power exchange market, which inevitably reminds people of another "net red" who is immersed in the field of power exchange - Weilai Automobile. In fact, Weilai and CATL have previously cooperated in the field of power exchange, and both are shareholders of Wuhan Weineng, a battery asset company. Now that the Ningde era has established a power exchange brand, it is inevitable that people will wonder whether it will pose a threat to Weilai.
Weilai said in an interview with the "China Automobile News" reporter that the most important competition at present is the competition between electric vehicles as a whole and fuel vehicles, and all innovations and business models that are conducive to improving the experience of electric vehicles are good for the entire new energy automobile industry. However, when asked by the reporter how to view the general replacement power station of different car companies, Weilai said: "Weilai's power exchange technology is open to the whole industry, and there have been car companies and Wei to discuss, and we will disclose it to you at the right time." "In this way, even if the two do not seem to intersect in the short term, it is also possible for Weilai to deploy a universal replacement power station, and a war is inevitable in the future."
Chen Hong, chairman of SAIC Motor, previously said that if car companies entrust all the automatic driving technology to Huawei, then the soul of car companies is gone. Now, the all-you-can-eat charging and power exchange mode of the Ningde era is tantamount to mastering the core of the development of electric vehicles. After the car company produces the vehicle shell, the battery is directly standardized, and it is stuffed into it. This is actually reducing the profit margin of car companies step by step and reducing the profit points of car companies. Shao Yuanjun said, "Just as there is a company that worries about Huawei's automatic driving solutions, joining the power exchange system of the Ningde era, car companies will also worry about being deprived of the right to speak in the design of battery packs." ”
If the car company wants to use the replacement power station of the Ningde era, it is bound to follow its specified battery standard, which will bring many restrictions to the research and development of the car company. In addition, for some car companies, battery packs are the core components of higher profits, and once the research and development of battery packs is restricted, it means that the profits will be surrendered.
However, Shao Yuanjun also pointed out that whether car companies will lose the "soul" of batteries, the most important thing is to look at the use trend of consumers, not the interests of car companies. If the power exchange model can be recognized by consumers, then companies that do not participate in the competition for power exchange tracks are doomed to be eliminated. In this case, there will naturally be some car companies that want to go their own way and build their own power stations, but the standard problem will become a major obstacle to them. "Some traditional car companies may prefer to build their own power stations, but the standard will definitely be based on companies that do better and have a larger scale." Once it does not meet the power exchange standards, the car company will face the embarrassing situation that the power exchange model cannot be listed. Shao Yuanjun said.
04
Large-scale promotion is obstructive and long
At NIO Day held in December last year, Li Bin, chairman of NIO, said that the advantages of the power exchange model in energy storage, automatic power replenishment and flexible power replenishment are currently underestimated. Wang Zhenpo, director of the National Engineering Laboratory for Electric Vehicles at Beijing Institute of Technology, also said that compared with charging, the power exchange mode time is short, which can greatly shorten the energy replenishment time of electric vehicles. Secondly, the owner of the car also gives the vehicle a time window for daily maintenance while changing the power, which can check the safety hazards in time. In addition, the substation realizes distributed energy storage through storage batteries, which can effectively reduce carbon emissions. So, how far is the replacement station with many advantages from large-scale promotion?
Cao Guangping, an independent researcher of new energy and intelligent networked vehicles, told reporters that objectively speaking, the power exchange mode mainly has the advantages of reducing the first cost of car purchase, battery maintenance, convenient battery recycling, and saving time, but it is still difficult to establish. In his view, the replacement power station is a kind of "heavy asset", and the cost of building a replacement power station is far higher than the construction of slow or fast charging piles. The cost of land, construction, batteries, employees and power consumption of the replacement power station may be evenly shared only if the replacement model reaches a certain scale. The current number of replacement models is obviously not enough to support the profitability of the power replacement business. At present, Weilai, Aodong New Energy and Botan Technology, which have a better power exchange business, are in the loss stage in the power exchange business.
Secondly, the current standards in the field of power exchange are also extremely difficult to unify. "The purpose of the user's use of the vehicle is different, the type, form, shape, electrical interface, mechanical interface, thermal management interface, etc. of the vehicle and the battery are very different, and it is not feasible to completely unify the battery standard to take care of the power exchange needs." Cao Guangping said.
In December last year, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers issued a series of group standards of the "Specifications for the Construction of Electric Passenger Vehicle Sharing and Replacement Power Stations", which attempted to formulate relevant standards for the construction of electric passenger car sharing and replacement power stations, and standardized the key core components, technical requirements and general processes in detail, and also classified, standardized and required the quick change devices, communication protocols, locking mechanisms, data management, test rules and safety protection. However, due to the previous barbaric growth, the formulation of standards in the field of power exchange is still a long way.
In addition, Cao Guangping pointed out that due to the high cost, the layout of the substation must be cautious, if you want to popularize the substation on a large scale, the cost is obviously huge. On the contrary, the cost of the charging network is low, the distribution is naturally scattered, and it is easier to penetrate into all aspects of consumer life and work.
It is worth mentioning that the power exchange mode means that the vehicle electricity is separated, which makes it difficult to define the ownership of the battery. "At present, the ownership of the battery in the power exchange model does not belong to the user, whether it belongs to the power exchange operator or the car company, which is difficult to say." It also involves costs, benefits and responsibility, and it is difficult to define ownership. Cao Guangping said. In his view, it is not optimistic that the power exchange mode has become the main technical route, whether it is built by the car company itself, or the battery company builds a station, the power exchange mode is more suitable for exploration under a few specific and specific scene needs.
Shao Yuanjun said: "At present, there are not enough practical cases to verify the service life, cycle life, battery safety and recycling of batteries after recycling. There is little support for inferring only theoretically whether the business model of power exchange works. "Although there are too many uncertainties, he pointed out that if the power exchange model can be developed, it will be of great benefit to the popularity of new energy vehicles." If there is a replacement power station as a supplement, with the full cooperation of the State Grid and enterprises such as PetroChina and Sinopec, the promotion of changing the gas station to a replacement power station is actually very rapid. He said.
Text: Zhang Yiwen Editor: Huang Bei Layout: Li Peiyang