Conference call of experts on new energy vehicles

Sales In 2021 and Q1 2022:

Overall deliveries reached 16,000 units in December 2021, a highest value in the world. The total delivery of 98,000 units throughout the year. The national design delivery target for 2021 is 90,000, significantly exceeding expectations. In 2022, the overall delivery target is 250,000, towards 300,000 shocks. In the first month of 2022, after the new energy decline of 30%, the price increase adjustment was made: after January 10, the price generally rose by 4000-5000, and the terminal price rose. In January, as the eve of the Spring Festival, there are problems in logistics delivery and transportation, and in the traditional case, it is the off-season for sales. This month's delivery volume is as of the 25th, the national delivery volume is 12195 units, and the estimated delivery volume this month is 13,000 units. As of yesterday, the national order volume was 16481, and the delivery and orders were down compared with the previous month, but they were normal. There will be another decline in February, but it is all expected. The decline in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of last year is a normal phenomenon, and the overall sales and deliveries this year will be faster than that of 21 years (not only P, but also other new energy vehicles). In terms of the general environment, the national passenger car sales in 21 years are about 21 million, and the overall sales of new energy are 2.4 million, and it is expected to grow to more than 4 million this year. At present, the overall national passenger car market belongs to the stock market. Under the guidance of the state and local governments, new energy vehicles will increase significantly. It is estimated that in the next five years, the overall passenger car market in the country will maintain annual sales of 20-25 million. New energy vehicles will grow from 2.4 million in 21 years to 8 million, accounting for about 40%.

Q&A Session:

Q: The first 25 days of this month's order is 16,000, is it expected to reach 17,000?

A: The overall order is 16481 units, and the order volume growth in the next few days will not be particularly large, at 17000-18000.

Q: What is the order volume in December?

A: The external announcement is mainly based on the delivery volume, and the overall national order volume in December is more than 24,000 vehicles (about equal to). In the P business policy, the customer's 5000 deposit can be refunded within 72 hours, so the order volume will be reduced at the beginning of the month.

Q: How can orders be divided into proportions by model?

A: Taking this month as an example, there are three models on sale: P3, P5, and P7. Delivery and sales proportionally, the current P7 orders and deliveries are the highest, this month the overall order volume of more than 16,000 units, P7 real order volume is 7278; followed by P5 models, the overall sales volume is 5392 units, accounting for 32%, the lowest is P3, the future will be the model will be marginalized - the price is lower, store rebates, product strength, profit points are the lowest, not the main model.

Q: What will be the decline in February? And the outlook for Q1?

A: The overall delivery target in January is 13,000 units, and in February, 9,000 units, which has a certain decline. The March target is in line with the December estimate. In the first two months, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, production and customer entry into the store have declined. March will remain flat with December, with deliveries expected in March at 16,000 and order targets at 22,000.

Q: Judging from the relationship with battery and major component manufacturers, will there be price increases?

A: The price will increase. The price of three electric vehicles (battery cell motor) will affect the price of the car, the current battery price rise is the most obvious: the price rise in the Ningde era is more severe, and the ternary lithium battery in the Ningde era will be gradually replaced by aviation lithium battery in the later period. Ewell lithium energy iron lithium battery will continue to be used, but used in low-end models.

Q: Can EWELL Lithium supply ternary batteries?

A: At present, there is no news received, because Ewell Lithium energy has been supplying iron lithium. From the perspective of the current amount, it is Ningde with the most, and it will cut to The most in the back.

Q: The car is thousands of dollars more expensive than 21 years, how do you evaluate the consumer mentality problem and sales?

A: In 2022, the new energy vehicle industry will be adjusted, subject to the rise of national supplements and raw materials, customers and manufacturers are aware of and understand this situation. Customers may have some resistance, so after December 13, a large-scale price adjustment was made, but the adjustment was not a guide price, but a package of rights and interests for customers. I want to make customers gradually understand the price increase of new energy vehicles through two price adjustments in December and January. After January 10, the price will be raised by about 4800. For customers, it is not P alone in the price increase - Tesla rises first, and Azure and Ideal will rise later. Customers will have some resistance and concerns in the early stage, but seeing that all brand models in the same industry have risen, they will accept the price increase in the later stage.

Q: For the price increase of new energy vehicles, will customers turn to traditional fuel vehicles?

A: In fact, traditional fuel vehicles are also rising, and the form of the rise is different. For example, Audi's normal A6 preferential margin is about 2-8 points, and it will gradually return to no discount in the case of missing chips and logistics impact, which is a disguised price increase. Now the market share of new energy vehicles is the share of fuel vehicles. In addition to national policies, the issue of daily usage costs will also affect consumers' shift from buying fuel vehicles to buying new energy vehicles.

Q: P7, for example, according to consumer logic, what would the price change difference look like (december and end of december)?

A: For example, the 586N model sold by the P7 at that time gave customers an 8,000-stake car purchase package before December 13, plus a discount. (The 8000 benefit package is the customer's choice of color, keel or cockpit). After December 13, 8000 became 5000, but the price of FMRP terminals did not rise. After January 10, the terminal FMRP price rose by 3800 yuan. In the end, it rose by nearly 9,000 yuan. From the perspective of customer perception, it rose by about 10,000 yuan. In fact, this year's rise is the national subsidy of 30% of the money, last year's no decline is also this price. (The guide price is actually the price that the customer gets, which already includes subsidies, and the car price itself has not been raised, and the adjustment is the price that the customer gets)

Q: Confirm two numbers: 2.4 million in 2021, 4 million in 22 years, what is this caliber?

A: Refers to a pure electric EV model.

Q: P7 for example, today to go to the store to place an order, when will it take to pick up the car?

A: Look at what configuration. The normal main model is the 586 series, which is expected to be delivered in about 15 weeks (3 months). In the 670 version, delivered in about 10 weeks (two and a half months).

Q: The monthly new orders correspond to the delivery volume after one quarter, which can be understood as the current decline in orders has no impact on the orders of stores and car companies?

A: Yes, it can be understood. Orders are always rolling.

Q: If the order volume is not good, when will the price be adjusted?

A: In addition to the special local policies in the north, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, P national unified C-end price and customer rights package. No action is expected to bring prices or equity packages down this year. Subject to the rise of national subsidies and raw materials, we do not intend to loosen prices in the near future. The reason is not only that there are many orders in hand at present, but also that the decline in orders in January and February is normal fluctuations. Starting in March, the order volume will gradually increase. In April, the Beijing Auto Show will carry out the pre-sale of P9, the order will not be too worried, and the price will not be pulled back.

Q: P94 open orders, when will it be delivered?

A: Confirm small batch delivery at the end of August and large-scale delivery at the end of September.

Q: In response to the decline in price adjustment in January, will there be a price increase for batteries and parts? Is there a ceiling?

A: Internal decisions: The pressure of rising battery prices will not affect the terminal price adjustment. Theoretically, the terminal sales price will not be adjusted. There is also no specific model to specify the upper limit. (As a sales end, I did not receive such information). The internal price of the B-side will be adjusted: the rebate of authorized stores will be greatly reduced this year.

Q: P The adjustment range of new energy vehicle insurance?

A: Premiums rose by more than 800, up 10%, not much burden on ordinary consumers. The increase in insurance prices is the addition of several additional insurance, do not buy additional insurance, and the increase in premiums is very small.

Q: In the changes in the rebate policy of dealers, which parts are fixed and which parts are floating?

A: Dealers have two modes: direct operation and authorization. Direct operation is the same as authorized rebates, basic rebates + sales incentives + standardized assessment. 21 years of basic rebate of 4%, 22 years of adjustment to 2%; 21 years of sales incentives last year less than or equal to 80%, no rebate, greater than the rebate of 1-3%, this year remains unchanged. 21 years of standardized assessment 2%, this year 0.6%. The total amount of rebates on the B side was reduced by 3.4%.

Q: P5 lead time situation

A: 3 main sales. The minimum comes with 460 unstocked, the main sales of 550 of the 87300 selling price version with a lead time of 11 weeks.

Q: With 16,000 orders in January, the market has rumors of 8,000, is it rising quickly this week?

A: The price on January 10 has not risen before it has been 8,000; the growth rate of orders on the 10th-16th is slow, only about 1300 units; the growth rate of the 17th-25th is relatively fast, and the growth of P7 and P5 is relatively fast. The order volume is similar to the manufacturer's expectations. Store assessment pays more attention to contract signing and delivery

Q: Order status in December

A: About 24,000 units

Q: The impact of the price increase on orders and sales on January 10th

A: The slow growth of orders from January 10th to 16th is the normal value expected by the company. The price increased by more than 4,000, and after a week of increase, customers gradually adapted to acceptance, understanding that the price may be raised in the later stage, and the delivery cycle will be extended.

Q: The proportion of the impact of price increases on the decline in orders

A: In the short term, there is an impact in January and February, no impact in the long term, and the order volume is expected to be 24,000 in March, and the annual delivery target is still 25W.

Q: How much is the price increase of batteries in the Ningde era?

A: About 3,000 yuan floating on the bicycle. In the later period, the Ternary lithium battery in Ningde switched the battery of AVIC lithium battery.

Q: The price difference between AVIC lithium battery and CATL battery?

A: According to the price increase in the Ningde era, it is estimated that it is about 3000.

Q: What is the order volume ratio of P5 and P7?

A: In January, P7 orders were 7200, and P5 was 5300, accounting for more than 44% and 30% respectively.

Q: Why did orders start to grow upward this week?

A: Last week, BYD and other car companies have raised prices, customers have adapted to accept short-term price increases, and it is normal for order volume shocks in 1 week. Orders are currently recovering very quickly.

Q: Can the current orders in hand last for 3 months?

A: There are 3 months.

Q: How does the year-on-year passenger flow change this month?

A: More than 331 stores across the country have increased compared with January 2021. This year, there is one more model P5, and some stores have been added. In some places, due to the decline in local passenger flow due to the impact of the epidemic, the total amount is rising.

Q: The proportion of P7 and P5 in the annual 25W sales target

A: P7 will account for 40% ;P 5 at 27%; the P9 listed this year has a late delivery cycle, which is expected to be 14%. The three models totaled 81%, with the G3 at 19%. Constitute the overall sales share of this year.

Q: According to the 25W sales target, it will be about 2.7-3.2W units in November and December, and the proportion of sales and the sales volume of the G9 at that time?

A: G9 will be delivered in September. Subsequent monthly sales targets may be planned to 3W to 4W, of which the G9 has about 5,000 deliveries planned from October. The overall sales area is not currently involved in medium to large SUVs and more than 35W car sales, so the G9 sales target is not very high. After waiting for the Beijing car to start pre-sale in April, we will adjust the expectations according to customer and media feedback.

Q: The median single-month sales plan in the later period is taken. Suppose the G9 sells 5,000 units, then the remaining 3W units are old models, of which P7 is not going to go up to about 1W5, P3 to 1W2, P3 to three or four thousand?

A: The overall is still based on P7, and this year's planning accounts for more than 40%.

Q: How many of the 25W sales are for the B-side?

A: The first block is the industry's major customers, direct supply to enterprises and institutions and taxi companies. The second block is the sales of large customers at the store end, to local small online ride-hailing companies and government units. The sales target of 21 years of industry key customers is 12,000 units, and the overall sales volume is 10,000 units, which is exceeded. This year's industry key customer sales target is 5W units.

Q: Will the P5 and P7 launch lithium-iron models?

A: P7 already has a lithium version of the iron version, P5 is not launched for the time being. In the future, the iron lithium version of the N5 model will be sold on the B-side, not on the C-end

Q: What is the proportion of P5 versions with optional lidar?

A: Overall P5 delivery is not a lot. Among them, the 550 series configuration is the most selected; the tail standard P is the highest version can be equipped with lidar, and the P version has the fewest customers. It is enough for the company itself to recommend more models in the middle. P7 and P5 customers choose the highest match less than 10%, and ordinary customers do not recommend the configuration.

Q: What is the proportion of models in the E version?

A: G is the lowest match, not the main push, the longest production logistics cycle, and even not recommended. The most sold is the E version, and the P7 586 and 670 models are more than 70% of the customers who choose to be equipped.

Q: What is the sales target of 25W?

A: It was calculated around October last year. Initially 20W, an increase of 100%. Referring to the ideal sales volume and market share targets, the 25W target was finally locked.

Q: January order volume is enough, why is the january delivery volume declining?

A: The factory side does not start production after January 25, and the logistics side does not ship on January 25 and 26.

Q: In the future, the N5 model will be sold to B, so will P also do the power exchange model in the future?

A: Do not change the power, only Weilai and Lifan do the power exchange. Do self-operated supercharging stations to reduce customers' worries about mileage anxiety.

Q: The market is worried that the easing of chip supply this year will slow down the rise in the price of fuel vehicles and slow down the replacement of new energy vehicles, so will the substitution effect be less strong after the price scissors difference between new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles disappears this year?

A: The price increase of fuel vehicles is mainly due to the rise in chip prices, which is caused by the imbalance of supply and demand pattern. It is expected that the supply of chips in the second quarter is normal and may continue to expand the preferential margin, but the local policy is still tilted towards new energy models. More customers consider inter-city use rather than long-distance, and the daily maintenance cost of new energy vehicles is low. Due to the local limited license restriction policy, the production and sales of new energy vehicles did not meet the company's expectations last year, and it is expected that the growth will be greatly accelerated in the future to seize the market share of fuel vehicles.

Q: The market is worried that the price of the car will continue to rise, so in the case of pessimism, will there be a possibility that the 25W sales target will be lowered this year?

A: The 25W target will be difficult, but it is achievable with existing product strength and sales channels. The increase in the price of upstream raw materials and parts will affect the price of the car, but the sales volume is still considered to be achievable internally.