Produced | car talk team
Wen | Yuan Guiyuan
I used to love to ignore it, but now I can't climb high.
This sentence, which was originally indifferent to me, dramatically got "what a painful realization" in a company - when BYD stock was still more than 20 yuan, I paid attention and did not buy; when there were more than 40 yuan, I wanted to buy, hesitated; now it has soared to 245, and I can't climb high.
From the perspective of long-term business philosophy, the rise and fall of BYD stock is a refraction of the company's value.
Recently, the list of the market value of some Chinese car companies in 2021 was announced. According to institutional statistics, as of December 31, 2021, BYD topped the list with a market of 780.536 billion yuan, and its total market value increased by 47.25% year-on-year.
In my opinion, BYD's positive will continue in 2022, and it will become more and more prominent, and it is likely that its market value will exceed trillion yuan this year. (Investment is risky and represents a purely personal opinion)
This view has become more and more firm after talking with BYD President Wang Chuanfu not long ago. In 2021, BYD's story has grown very luxuriantly, but when I see Wang Chuanfu again, the hair on his forehead is not as good as the company's growth, thinning, and the white hair has quietly climbed up the sideburns.
But his mental state was very good, he seemed to be in a very good mood, and he had a smile on his face that could not be hidden.
"Crazy" BYD: One hit ten
In 2021, BYD's annual sales of passenger cars were 730,093 units, an increase of 75.4% year-on-year, of which new energy vehicles sold 593,745 units (320,810 pure electric vehicles and 272,935 DM plug-in hybrid models), an increase of 231.6% year-on-year.
In December last year, BYD was even more "crazy": new car sales were 97,990 units, an increase of 77.9% year-on-year, of which new energy vehicle sales were 92,823 units, an increase of 236.4%.
Some netizens commented that BYD is a dozen. It seems arrogant, but it is a fact, the sales of ten new energy vehicle brands add up, and they are really not as good as one BYD.
At this time, I can understand why Wang Chuanfu's mood is so good. An entrepreneur, seeing that the company is showing a vigorous trend, and stepping on the right rhythm, running fast in the right direction, the mood can not be unhappy.
"In 2022, I personally judge that the penetration rate of the new energy industry is estimated to exceed 35%, and BYD's annual target for passenger cars is 1.5 million units." Wang Chuanfu made his judgment clear to me, and at the same time generously revealed the company's goals.
This means that in 2022, BYD's sales will double. Where does BYD's confidence come from?
The first is to be firmly focused on trends, and choice is sometimes more important than effort.
On January 11, 2022, the Association released the sales data of new energy passenger vehicles for the whole year of 2021, according to statistics, the total wholesale volume of new energy vehicles in China reached 3.312 million units from January to December, an increase of 181.0% year-on-year; the total retail sales volume was 2.989 million units, an increase of 169.1% year-on-year.
In stark contrast to the "double hundred" growth of the new energy vehicle market, the total wholesale volume of fuel vehicles in 2021 was 17.79 million units, down 4% year-on-year; the total retail sales volume was 17.16 million units, down 6% year-on-year.
It can be said that the market trend of the two is obviously differentiated, and in the context of more and more consumers beginning to pay attention to and choose new energy models, the pace of transformation of the domestic passenger car market to "electrification" in 2022 will inevitably become faster and faster.
In the context of the trend, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Association, predicted that the penetration rate of new energy passenger cars will reach about 25% in 2022, and it is obvious that Wang Chuanfu is more bold.
Whether it is 25% or 35%, the general consensus in the industry is that the growth of the new energy vehicle market is a foregone conclusion.
Under such a frenzy, it should be noted that the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be terminated on December 31, 2022, and vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized.
Affected by the rise in raw materials and the decline in car purchase subsidies, some companies, including BYD, have announced price increases for some models at the beginning of the year.
This year is the last madness of car purchase subsidies, and it may also trigger a new round of car purchases. This year is also a big year for BYD's products, and Ocean Network and Dynasty Network will launch several products in this year to "bombard" the market.
Catfish become fast fish: BYD's logic
"Now it's a fast fish eating a slow fish, not a big fish eating a small fish." Wang Chuanfu said, "Now we look at the data, look at the changes, in weekly, or even in days. ”
"The market is changing rapidly, and at this stage, fast is more important than science, the first is faster, the second is scientific." Wang Chuanfu added.
He believes that the biggest difficulty at present is not to see through the changes in the market, for example, he said that dolphin is a misjudgment, "We set a relatively conservative goal, in fact, the market sales far exceeded expectations, resulting in insufficient capacity we gave." ”
According to the data, dolphin models sold 10,016 vehicles in December 2021, and a total of 29,598 vehicles were sold from August to December. As the first model of Ocean Network, Dolphin has such a good performance, which greatly enhances the confidence of the subsequent Ocean series and becomes a new growth point for BYD's product matrix.
Probably he did not expect that the DM-i model was so sought after by the market, the production capacity could not keep up with the demand, and some 4S stores even sold the exhibition car.
In the past year, BYD's rhythm has been like a 100-meter race, rushing out from the beginning. As a media person, my personal direct feeling is that I am not participating in BYD's new product launch, or on the way to participate in BYD activities.
In my opinion, BYD's transformation from a catfish to a fast fish has its own logic. From the background point of view, the window of opportunity for the great changes in a hundred years has been opened, hot money has poured in, the market has gradually matured, and a new round of consumption upgrading has begun.
According to the Tianyancha report, as of November 2021, China's new energy vehicle field has received more than 70 financings this year, with a total financing of more than 80 billion yuan, which has exceeded the total amount of financing in 2020.
It seems that the new energy vehicle market capacity is huge, but the market can not tolerate too many brands, half of the share will be divided by a small number of three to five brands, there is no doubt that BYD must be one of the strongest, and it must determine and defend its position as a leader in new energy.
Therefore, BYD is faster, taking advantage of more brands that have not yet gained a foothold, to occupy the market, to occupy the minds of consumers. I think that within three years, the overall situation will be decided, and the story of the success and defeat of the king can be drawn to a stage.
In 2021, the chip shortage crisis broke out, which actually gave BYD a highlight moment to turn the crisis into an opportunity: all of this stemmed from BYD's highly vertical, high-end integrated technology route.
At the beginning of the car, BYD did not want to do anything, and finally found that no supplier was willing to supply BYD at that time, in the helpless situation, BYD very "hardcore" out of its own way: highly vertical.
In most manufacturers are running around for chips, probably only BYD is relatively calm, "this crisis, we should be said to be much less affected than other manufacturers, there are many chips are BYD self-developed, of course, there are a small number of need to purchase, but the procurement can not be, we also have a way to solve internally, we can do some alternatives." Lian Yubo, executive vice president of BYD, told the car talk.
"We also helped some OEMs solve some chip problems." Lian Yubo couldn't help but be proud.
Now it seems that the previous short-term pain has gradually formed a crystallized honey, and THE dividend of BYD's high integration can be highlighted the more it encounters a crisis.
With the blessing of chips, blade batteries, electronic controls, DM-i and other technologies, coupled with the leap in the whole value chain of car manufacturing, BYD's passenger car challenge target of 1.5 million units is not empty.
In 2022, the epidemic is not broken, the chip shortage will continue to be staged, taking advantage of the good, this year is also BYD's siege, a key year.
"Decisions should be made quickly and chains should be short." Wang Chuanfu said. At the communication meeting, he repeatedly pointed out that the company's response to dolphins is slower, "If the reaction is faster, the dolphin market will be better." ”
"In 2022, our decision-making will be faster, of course, if one direction is wrong, it is tens of billions of dollars." Wang Chuanfu said with a smile.
I understand Wang Chuanfu's "fast", his fast is based on the cornerstone of slow, BYD is a long-termist, it has been laying a solid foundation over the years. In other ways of thinking, aside from the helplessness in the early stage of entrepreneurship, BYD is determined to integrate technology to the end, which is slow work.
Fish Farming Theory: The Technical Net of Fish Farming King
If you compare with many car companies, you will find that BYD is a magical existence, and the vastness of its industry is staggering, and it is not too much to describe it as a BYD empire.
But often the larger the business, the faster it is, and the more prone it is to error. In the history of BYD's rapid development, there have also been painful lessons, for this, Wang Chuanfu probably has a palpitation, but also awe, "We are always vigilant about ourselves, do not make the same mistakes." ”
In the past year, although we have occasionally seen individual car owners complain about BYD products, the overall brand power and reputation have been greatly improved.
The success of BYD Han from 200,000 yuan also fully demonstrates the market's re-understanding and acceptance of BYD. With Han's demonstration effect, BYD's upward breakthrough in 2022 seems to be open and logical.
When it comes to why he wants to be a high-end brand, Wang Chuanfu expresses it in four words: "Water comes to fruition".
Li Yunfei, general manager of BYD's auto brand and public relations division, explained more specifically: in 2022, BYD will launch a new high-end brand, the first model will be a hardcore off-road SUV, and the price range is expected to be more than 500,000-1 million yuan. Moreover, BYD's high-end brand will have an independent sales and service network, which will be built by an independent team.
This means that bydir auto network will add a high-end brand network on the basis of Dynasty Network and Ocean Network.
In the future, BYD's automotive business will be composed of four sections: Dynasty.com, Ocean.com, Denza and high-end brands. It is worth mentioning that after the denza stock reform cooperated with Mercedes-Benz, Denza was also included in the BYD automobile network.
For the four sectors of business, Li Yunfei made an analogy, "BYD's automobile business is similar to Volkswagen Group, Dynasty and Ocean are similar to Volkswagen brand series, Denza is similar to Audi brand, and high-end brands are similar to Porsche brands." ”
If the price is divided, I guess, Ocean Network mainly plays 100,000-150,000, Dynasty Network mainly plays 150,000-300,000, Denza mainly plays 300,000-500,000, and high-end brands focus on 50-1 million yuan.
BydIr's "group temperament" will usher in an outbreak in 2022. Since this year, BYD has challenged its strongest rival Tesla and has a more reliable imagination.
At the communication meeting, Wang Chuanfu talked about technology the most, but what left a deep impression on me was his set of "fish farming theory".
"BYD has a technical 'fish pond', which has a variety of technologies, when the market needs it, we will fish one out, chips, electric vehicles, rail transit, etc. are the big fish in the 'fish pond'." Wang Chuanfu believes that ALL OF BYD's technology sectors have the potential to become "unicorns".
In July 2021, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange accepted BYD Semiconductor's listing application on the Growth Enterprise Market .D.C. BYD's power battery plate, which is famous for its "blade battery", also plans to be listed independently from 2022 to 2023.
"If I have achieved a little success myself, our aim is to make every subsidiary a 'little king'." Wang Chuanfu said.
"Fish farming", "fishing", "what the market needs, fish out one", "each one is very large, very strong", Wang Chuanfu is not just a technical maniac living in the laboratory, he is also a very good "fish farming" entrepreneur.
"We must break the big pot of rice, compare with the same industry, not only compare with ourselves, and start marketization." Capital market recognition is the real skill. ”
"Mature one, listed one, semiconductors are already on the way to the market, 10% of the equity to the management team."
A few words show that BYD led by Wang Chuanfu is actively seeking change: from internal drive to internal and external dual drive - the business is open to the outside, subject to market testing, and motivating the team.
In fact, even though BYD is becoming more and more open, in some ways, relatively speaking, BYD is more conservative. For example, in terms of investment, since the acquisition of Ningbo Zhongwei Semiconductor in 2008, there has been little action.
In this regard, Wang Chuanfu simply replied, "We have very few acquisitions because we can see far. Indeed, the highly integrated BYDs, who seem to lack nothing, tend to build themselves unless they don't have one.
On the other hand, BYD also shows "conservative", in terms of talent, "there are few people from the outside, and internal training is the mainstay." Wang Chuanfu said. Almost all of the company's executives are trained, and even some executives are recruited by the school, and then they are promoted to executives step by step. This is also a major feature of BYD.
Probably for Wang Chuanfu, what will never be conservative is his enthusiasm and investment in technology - "Doing technology in BYD is still very happy, as long as you look for the direction, the company will never skimp on investment in technology research and development, and there is no limit to research and development investment." Lian Yubo said.
"We are not short of market, no shortage of funds, we must be the strongest and largest leader in the new energy industry chain." Wang Chuanfu said. However, he also knows that after the new energy track is opened to the whole society, it has become very crowded, and it has not yet decided the winner, "the first half is electrified, the second half is intelligent." ”
"The automobile ecology must be based on the mobile phone ecology." he said.
The automobile ecology based on the mobile phone ecology must be an extremely important fulcrum in the intelligent layout. Geely and Tesla are already on their way to building mobile phones.
I thought he would go on (like making a phone), but he didn't mention anything. I think that he who wants to talk and stop, must have a tiger in his heart, but he has not yet said it in time, BYD is such a style: release and mass production, do not engage in PPT that set.
Wang Chuanfu does not say it now, but it does not mean that he has not done it, I still believe in his "fish farming theory" and "fishing tactics".
"What the market needs, fish out one", "each one is very big, all very strong".