22/02/08
Lead
"As long as the drums can still ring in our hearts, we are lions!" We will always be a lion! ”
Author 丨Wei Jinqiao
Responsible editor 丨 Xu Jinkai
Edit 丨 Chic
"[The Chinese nation] is on the way to awakening, and once they wake up and quietly stand up and search for the relics of their own civilization, what will happen then?" The famous Japanese religious scholar Tokiwa Daisuke once lamented.
Throughout the ages, China has never lacked such brave people, who stood up and looked at the sea and bent down to cultivate Nanyang. When you are heroic, you will be at the top, and when you miss it, you will be in the middle of the clouds. Especially when the nation faces a huge historical turning point, the bravest people will always come forward.
"Wanli Kunlun who chiseled, boundless waves beat the sky." In the second year of the Qing calendar (1042 AD), when the young Wang Anshi was the fourth and first to serve as the official of the Huainan Jiedu Judges' Office, he wrote this magnificent poem "Wolf Mountain And View of the Sea" in Jiangyin Wolf Mountain, which was posthumously recognized by the academic circles as the germ of the Song Dynasty's ideas of reform and institutional renewal.
December 18, 2021, marks the 1,000th anniversary of the birth of Wang Anshi, who was hailed by Liang Qichao as "the great reformer and Cromwell of China." "The sky is not enough to be afraid, the people are not enough to be compassionate, the ancestors are not enough to the law", he tried to establish a complex relationship between man and the system in the imperial society, and this reform motivation predates the West by 500 years.
After a thousand years, under the complex situation of insufficient internal driving force and external strong enemies, the academic community set off a trend of recalling Wang Anshi at the end of the year and the beginning of the year.
Reminiscences are mostly for the sake of inheritance, but the current pathfinding for thousands of years is to shake the ancients and the present. In 2020, the new crown will change the growth path of foreign automobile companies in China; in 2021, the lack of core will change the survival dilemma of Chinese local brands; 2022 will be the eve of the decisive battle of foreign brands in China, and it will also be a key year for China's electrification and intelligence to strengthen internal and external expansion.
With the Sino-US trade war and technical blockade as the background, if we cannot achieve the rise and breakthrough of the whole industrial chain through new energy and intelligence, we may be forced to fall into the ocean of internal volume.
If we not only consolidate our market advantages, but also provide a Chinese roadmap for global electrification and intelligent breakthrough, the window of the future will slowly open.
The road of dreams is full of thorns, and there are always those who are desperate to lift the scythe. "As long as the drums can still ring in our hearts, we are lions!" We will always be a lion! In the movie "Lion Boy", the little friends chase the car to cheer ah Juan. I caught a glimpse of the teenagers on the side—the six-year-old Smell, the five-year-old Six-Six, and their mother—with tears in their eyes.
At that moment, I had sought the answer in my heart.
Fully charged south
On April 6 last year, in Hangzhou, a new yellow GAC AION Y quietly stopped on the edge of the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal, when the spring flowers were blooming and the Longjing was fragrant.
"This car is fighting with the oil truck to grab the market!" Gu Huinan, general manager of GAC New Energy, has been saying indignantly, "We used to sell this car to large customers, and our goal is to be private." ”
On November 27, 2021, Shanghai Daning, the surrounding Jiuguang Center, which I had been waiting for for eight years, was grandly opened, and that night, I drove a car to punch a family to punch in. How popular is it? It is said that in the SAIC Zhiji Exhibition Hall, which is located in the golden position of the private seat on the first floor, if you want to sit in the L7 car, you have to queue for at least 1 hour.
At early 10:00 a.m. on January 12, Shanghai cooled down, and the Huangpu Xintiandi showroom in the prime location was a little cold, and I had a hot discussion with Liu Chen, director of user relationship development at Feifan Automobile, who had recently taken up his position: How can a new brand really have user thinking? Each one insists.
From Feifan Automobile to Zhiji, from Roewe to MG, SAIC motor will be full of expeditions in 2022 on the new energy track.
On the last day of 2021, the children in the family took the afternoon holiday and sneaked to the theater to see two popular works, one is the animation film "Lion Boy" - frequent controversy but shines; the other is the realistic and realistic, Shanghainese whispering "Love Myth". One uses the barbaric growth of grassroots rivers and lakes, and the other borrows the fun and fragrance of the mid-life crisis to interpret the cultural heritage of Guangdong and Shanghai to the fullest.
The movie "Lion Boy" flew to optimus prime, like a Chinese auto independent brand looking for a living space through the cracks. They grow savagely, never born of jade, but constantly break through the ceiling of their own brands and break through the boundaries of survival. The lion dance teenager has successfully achieved the first leap by taking advantage of the national fortune, becoming a brilliant representative of the traditional fuel era in the mainstream market segment, and a dazzling new star in the new energy era.
On the evening of January 24, Xiao Yong, deputy general manager of GAC E-An, said to me, "The delivery volume of E-An Y in March this year exceeded 10,000 vehicles, which is earlier than you originally expected," right?!" He added that more than 90 percent of Y's customers are individual purchases.
In 2021, GAC Aeon doubled its sales of 120,000 units year-on-year, becoming a leader in the exploration of electrification of traditional large state-owned enterprises, and the sales of pure electric vehicles not only far exceeded FAW Dongfeng, but also left SAIC and Changan far behind. The 2021 MVP is BYD, a shenzhen-born company that has reached the top of the new era of global electrification with the magical performance of DM-i. In 2021, the ranking of the new force of electric vehicle manufacturing "Wei Xiaoli" has quietly changed, and Xiaopeng Automobile, which has been working in Guangdong for many years, surpassed Weilai and ideal with a slight advantage and reached the top of the sales list of new forces.
"In the era of electrification and intelligent vehicles, the advantages of the Pearl River Delta will be unique!" On December 15, 2021, in Guangzhou, Lu Xianqing, a member of the executive committee of GAC Group and chairman of GAC Materials and Trade, which runs one of the largest dealer groups in China, and I provoked this controversial, interesting and exciting topic.
In 2021, the new force of new crown Xiaopeng, the traditional state-owned enterprise electrification leader GAC Ean, the big red and purple BYD, are all rooted in Guangdong. In 2021, the king of miniature electric world Wuling Hongguang, the battery king - Ningwang Ningde era, one in Liuzhou, one in Fujian Ningde, they are only 400 kilometers away from Guangzhou.
In the hottest wave of electrification at present, several of the leaders who stand at the head of the tide are almost all within the radiation of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.
Whether it is SAIC, Dongfeng, or FAW, which is red and purple, the electrification of the three major groups started very early, spending a lot of money, but the effect was not obvious, of which SAIC was particularly unfortunate. As an industry leader, SAIC is accustomed to sitting on a solemn thinking, and in the traditional automobile era, with strong people, property and brand advantages, it can seize the opportunity. Since the market downturn in 2018, the rapid advancement of electrification has changed the relationship between customers and OEMs, and under this trend, the southern enterprises represented by GAC motor have obvious advantages in truly serving customers and respecting customers.
"Why doesn't Shanghai come out with Jack Ma?" In 2008, Yu Zhengsheng, then secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee, lamented that Shanghai had missed the turbulent era of e-commerce and the Internet economy. In 2020, the signing ceremony between Weilai and Hefei, although many soul parts including the R&D and operation center are still in Shanghai, but the body is very sincere and goes straight to Hefei.
Galapagos tortoise
On January 12, along with an internal announcement, the Canon camera factory was announced in China. It is the era that abandoned Canon – although it once carved beauty appropriately into the depths of everyone's soul, but now, like Nokia, it has lost its memory in the post-00 generation.
Many people are afraid to become the next Canon, BlackBerry and Nokia.
"What do you think, e:N?" At the end of 2021, after the release of Honda's huge electrification strategy, Zheng Chunkai, executive deputy general manager of Dongfeng Honda, and Zheng Heng, executive deputy general manager of Guangqi Honda, both asked the same question. In addition to the innovative electrification name e:N, the S1 and P1 models exude an atmosphere of "oil to electricity".
Young Japanese designers in Aoyama, Tokyo and Toyota Castle, Nagoya, are also very distressed, and the epidemic has stopped them, and they have not come to China for two years. In the past two years, the electrification and intelligence of the Chinese market have undergone tremendous changes. Everyone in the midst of it is still difficult to accept this mysterious change, and Japanese manufacturing and industry are suffering from the "Galapagos syndrome".
The Galapagos is a Pacific archipelago isolated on the South American continent, because of its long-term isolation, it has evolved a unique ecosystem, with distinctive turtles, huge lizards, unique penguins and so on.
Over the past two decades, Japan has been under a spell that has been repeatedly defeated in many global industrial competitions, losing its voice in end products. Japan's mobile phone industry from the rise to almost total annihilation, almost a copy of the "Galapagos syndrome", Canon is another sample.
As early as 2019, Zhu Linjie, director of Honda's China Broadcasting Department, told me that Japan now has one industry + one company left in China - the globally popular Uniqlo and the automobile industry, which accounts for a quarter of the world's output. However, in the fourth quarter of last year, Uniqlo was cold in the two pillar markets, with domestic revenue falling 11% in Japan and revenue in Greater China falling 0.85%. With the same disease, Japanese automobile companies are also anxious in China.
Japanese car companies led by Toyota have almost monopolized core patents and technologies such as oil-electric hybrids and hydrogen energy vehicles, and they are also strong in the field of power batteries. Even toyota ranks second in the world for autopilot patents. However, Japan has not been able to translate this technological advantage into an industrial advantage. Because of the patent monopoly and closed Japanese culture, other countries have been forced to take a detour to specialize in electric, including China, Germany and the United States.
If someone sticks to the rules, there will be people who will innovate themselves. In 2020, Mercedes-Benz China stuffed a pile of NIO ES8 data and two new cars into containers on the China-Europe Railway. Braving the sweltering heat of Stuttgart, Mr. Conlingson, who had been in office for more than a year, and all of his board members went to the test track for a test drive.
Kang Linsong's change and understanding of electrification was fully displayed at the new EQS conference in April last year, and the 17 minutes of online were not only vivid but also extremely penetrating, an electric Mercedes-Benz, ready to come out.
The interesting contrast is that almost at the same time, the video of Lexus's electrification revolution followed, but I only took a few minutes to fast-forward to watch this very "Lexus" online conference, with boring slogans and Japanese reservedness, in this 20-minute video, it was boring.
Roadside news said: The average age of new car owners in Lexus in 2021 has quietly increased by 4 years. For years, Lexus, lying in the honey juice of profits, faced with the tide of electrification and intelligence, anxiety may still stay in empty speeches and press releases, but the arrogance of the heart has become an excuse for it to refuse to change.
Although chanting to complete the electrification in 2030, Lexus's body is infected with "Galapagos syndrome".
Cars don't have ferrymen
2020 and 2021 are too magical, and 2022 is looking for a way forward. From Stuttgart to Nagoya, from Dearborn to Wolfsburg, every legendary brand with a glorious name is adjusting to the best posture to meet the uncertainties of the future.
"No really big company has a car that's great in terms of software and hardware. The problem is that these capabilities exist between suppliers and secondary suppliers, such as Bosch, Continental, and ourselves. On January 18, 2022, The Talk Show Decoder host Nila conducted an hour-and-a-half-long interview with Dies.
Not only that, new forces such as Apple, Huawei and Sony are competing for the rise, technology giants such as the Internet and semiconductors have entered across borders, the competitive landscape of the automobile industry has been reshaped, the core value chain has been reconstructed, and some OEMs may be reduced to foundries in the future. The new car-making forces represented by Weilai and Tesla are using their first-mover advantages and Internet genes to continuously seize the market share of traditional car companies.
There is no ferryman in the car, only bold change, can it cross itself!
Dees told a small story, around 2012, he was still working at BMW, and his first visit to China went to a small company called Ningde Times, which produced smartphone pocket batteries for a major American customer, and the annual turnover was only 200 million to 300 million US dollars.
"We need car batteries, first plug-in hybrids, then electric cars. The guys looked at me and said, 'We can't develop batteries for cars, it's too big, we don't have facilities.' Dees laughed.
The Ningde era was indeed not ready, but Dees tried to convince them. Diess mentioned the incident to Zeng Yuqun, CEO and founder of CATL, who made a special change. This change has become an important starting point for creating the world's largest battery manufacturer. Today, the market value of the Ningde era exceeds 1 trillion yuan, and behind the heavy figures is a story of rapid adaptation and brave innovation.
This shows that Dees has never lacked the spirit of innovation, and he has been constantly eye-to-eye with Musk for three years, inspiring the young people of Wolf Castle, Anting and Changchun. An interesting number is that the ID. series sold a new record in the last month of 2021, which made the north and south masses cry with joy, and after ID.'s painful first half of 2021, its fun was captured by interesting people.
Volkswagen finally realized that it was abandoning the traditional market and pursuing profits with new forces, and slowly converting the huge base plate customers who had sold more than 4 million vehicles in the previous year into electrification.
On January 1, 2022, a middle-aged man of about 40 years old picked up an e-POWER Xuanyi that had just arrived at the store for a day from the Huangshi Qiantong Dongfeng Nissan franchise store, "just to save fuel for it!" Mr. Meng, who has worked in coastal areas for many years, said.
2021 outperformed the broader market, although Xuanyi continued to win all the car championships at a high level, although Tianlai hit a record high with sales of more than 160,000 vehicles, but the new generation of Qijun broke the sand, leaving Dongfeng Nissan with many regrets and hidden dangers. The three major challenges of the new generation of X-Trail, e-POWER Hybrid Route Breakout and AIRIYA Electrification Impact are the three core issues of Dongfeng Nissan from 2021 to 2022.
2022 For Dongfeng Nissan, it must kill a blood road on the road of electrification in order to quickly break through from the predicament, e-POWER's bold attempt is a powerful chip, and 2022 will begin to fully shift to electrification of Dongfeng Venucia, which is another one.
China's plan promotes a new global path
"'Mech Dragon' is aimed at limousine users in the price range of more than 400,000 yuan, this segment, in addition to a few immutable BBA, under the rise of the national tide, they need to find a new outlet for their love." On the afternoon of November 18 last year, in Guangzhou, the rainforest tea house, the young Salon Automobile CEO Wen Fei pointed to the picture on the PPT, full of ambition.
A day later, the Guangzhou Auto Show, the debut of the mecha dragon, was surrounded by the media and young people.
Xiaopeng Automobile unexpectedly topped the throne of new forces in 2021, which must have a hard work of Li Pengcheng, vice president of Xiaopeng Motors. It is said that the number of nucleic acid tests in 2021 is 38, which explains that traveling with "acid" is the standard nowadays.
The best of course is BYD, and the outstanding performance of the DM-i plug-in hybrid has begun to force Toyota and Honda to think: whether it is HEV or PHEV that is more conquering.
The market votes by hand. According to data from the Association of Passenger Vehicles, the proportion of PHEV plug-in hybrid models and BEV pure electric models in the market has risen from 5.8% in 2020 to 13.9% in the previous 11 months, and the proportion has continued to rise.
Driven by WEILAI, Xiaopeng, BYD, GAC E-An and Wuling Hongguang MINIEV, in 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 3.545 million units and 3.521 million units, respectively, with a market share of 13.4%. Among them, the private market accounts for up to 88%.
The market has formed a systematic consensus on the future acceleration of the infiltration of new energy into automobiles, and capital, technology and cross-industry infiltration have become the driving force for the development of new energy and intelligent vehicles in the future. "3.4 million in 2021, 5 million in 2022, 8 million in 2024!" Pinch your fingers, the new energy seems to have been charged and running fast.
Europe's new energy market is growing fast, and the annual sales of new energy vehicles in eight European countries in 2021 will be about 1.95 million, an increase of about 65% year-on-year, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the whole year will be about 21%, compared with about 13% in the same period last year.
Affected by the rapid promotion of new energy in China and Europe, the United States began to worry that the standard of electrification in the future was dominated by a strong market, and began to accelerate a series of policies and market incentives for new energy in 2021, with annual new energy sales reaching 656,000 units, an increase of nearly 100% year-on-year, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the whole year was 4.2%, and the Biden administration increased its bet on new energy in the United States in 2022.
Although the Automobile Corporation remains optimistic that the auto market will break through 28 million units in 2022, it is skeptical that the new energy market will double by more than 50% year-on-year. At the end of December last year, in a second-tier city, the order volume and passenger flow of Tesla stores fell by 10% to 20%, while Chery Ant's order volume and passenger flow in some third-tier cities fell by 25% to 30%.
Looking forward to electrification in 2022, the biggest impact is not from the policy decline, but from the counterattack of traditional cars. In the context of lack of cores, limited chip resources are inclined to new energy, and the lack of cores is alleviated in the second half of the year, and market pressure and new living space competition will force each company to participate in the market battle.
Battery products are blocked, subsidies are declining, fuel vehicle consumption is resurgent, the third- and fourth-tier market supporting facilities are incomplete and the technical safety hazards of electric vehicles themselves, electric vehicles will surely repeatedly oscillate forward from 2022 to 2024.
However, in this round of electrification, BYD is inspiring with DM-i as a solution with Chinese characteristics. "Time also, potential also" Chinese culture has always paid attention to the guidance of the situation, and the new trend of plug-in hybridization in 2021 established by DM-i will change the path of China's new energy and even the global new energy development trend.
Stimulated by BYD's DM-i boom, the sales scale of PHEV in 2021 is likely to exceed 1 million or even higher than last year's 600,000 units, maintaining a growth rate of 100% for two consecutive years.
More importantly, as BYD takes the lead in opening up growth space and competes with the traditional powerful Toyota and Honda technologies with Chinese technology and cost standards, it will be possible to change the global development path of new energy.
[Please continue to pay attention to the "2022 ∣ Pattern and Trend (Part 2): From Market Transfer to Technological Equality" pushed tomorrow: Times have changed, China has changed from a passive rule recipient to a major participant in globalization that adapts to new rules while creating new rules, this time, China is determined not to become a bystander! 】