According to the latest data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first 11 months of 2021, the cumulative sales of new cars in the domestic auto market reached 23.489 million, of which the cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles have approached 3 million, and the annual sales of new energy vehicles are expected to be 3.4 million, an increase of 150% year-on-year. Although the market is thriving, the other aspect of the coin is that the development of the key new energy regional market represented by Beijing is still facing "difficulties". "Yi Chezhi" communicated with several dealers and senior industry insiders in first-tier cities, and found that under the background of insufficient production capacity caused by the "lack of core tide", the centralized release of car purchase indicators, the restriction of new car purchases, and the decline of subsidies still plague dealers to varying degrees.
Under the control of indicators, the cost of customer acquisition continues to rise
Under the new car purchase restriction policy, the core of the management of car purchase indicators is to delay demand and release batches, so it limits the uniform release of purchasing power and reconstructs the balance of supply and demand; on the other hand, the time and method of release of indicators challenge the channel strategy of dealers, resulting in "congestion" at the time of "release", which puts pressure on customer acquisition costs. In Beijing, this phenomenon is particularly pronounced.
Different from Shanghai and Guangzhou, Beijing new energy license plates implement a "waiting system", and the release of car purchase indicators has the characteristics of cyclicality, concentration and explosiveness, which not only tests the product strength of car companies, but also puts forward higher requirements for the sales transformation of channels.
On January 1, 2021, Beijing announced the quota of indicators for 2021, with 40,000 ordinary indicators and 60,000 new energy indicators, a total of 100,000. Since June, the indicators have been published in batches. According to the indicator release process, the end of May becomes the time node of the centralized release of the indicator, the potential consumer demand is concentrated at this time, and a large amount of purchasing power needs to be released. The pressure on terminal stores is significant, and car companies and dealers open the "arena mode".
During the epidemic in 2020, a large-scale "discount test drive" adopted to drive sales in the short term has become a "weapon" for brands to compete for customers. This year, the Beijing market's "sticker test drive" has once again taken off, and Zhao Zhao, general manager of a certain line of new energy brand dealer stores, revealed to "Yi Chezhi" that due to the near end of the year, the indicators have been basically released, and the flow of people entering the store has been significantly reduced. "The chill from October is in stark contrast to the peak of more than 100 groups of visitors entering the store every day in June, when even on weekends there are only 50 to 70 groups of passengers per day, and very few on weekdays."
Although the number of license plate indicators released by Beijing has hardly changed compared with last year, Manager Zhao said that the cost of customer acquisition in the store has risen from 1040 yuan / person at the end of last year to 1200 yuan / person this year, which has a lot to do with the fierce competition during the peak period of indicator release. The sales rhythm of "autumn harvest and winter collection" has caused the cost of customer acquisition in stores to rise sharply, and has also caused a huge gap in passenger flow changes.
"We have received news that next year's target release time is similar to this year's, which means that it is likely that there will be no significant increase in the number of customers in the store from now until May." This winter was exceptionally cold for us. Manager Zhao said helplessly.
During the period of policy overlap, subsidy changes affect consumer confidence
However, Beijing's regional market has a strong particularity. Outside of Beijing, the impact of indicator management is virtually limited. For example, Shanghai requires new energy car buyers to have charging piles, but compared with "row number" car purchases, this restriction has a lot of room for maneuver. In fact, it is not uncommon for car owners to issue "new energy vehicle charging certificates" through communities or units.
In addition, there are special restrictions on new energy models in Shanghai. A new force car dealer in Shanghai revealed to Yiche. "Since the middle of this year, Wuling Hongguang MINIEV has not been able to get the green card. However, for the government to limit the consumption of new energy models below 100,000 yuan, the demand for new energy purchases by this consumer is not obvious. ”
In contrast, Guangdong has vigorously promoted the consumption of new energy vehicles in recent years, and the indicator management has become more and more relaxed and humane. In November this year, Guangdong announced that it would gradually relax the restrictions on the licensing of new energy vehicles in Guangzhou and Shenzhen. From 2021 to 2022, the incremental indicators for energy-saving cars in Guangzhou will increase to 80,000; Shenzhen will further relax the application conditions for new energy car indicators, cancel restrictions such as social security, and promote the sales of new energy cars.
An industry insider told "Yi Chezhi" that in Guangzhou, units and individuals need to apply for new energy vehicle registration, with vehicle information can directly apply for new energy indicators, as long as the purchase is the "new energy vehicle promotion and application of recommended models listed in the small and medium-sized passenger cars, you can apply for new energy indicators, there is no social security, residence permit and other requirements. It can be seen that in the main cities outside Beijing, the indicator management has not led to customer acquisition anxiety.
In addition, the subsidy policy that was originally favorable to the new energy automobile industry may also bring unexpected challenges to dealers in some regions due to the characteristics of cyclical changes. For example, in order to further boost consumption, Guangzhou will continue the comprehensive subsidy policy measures for individual consumers to purchase new energy vehicles in Guangzhou from one year to the end of December this year in 2021, and implement the comprehensive subsidy fund for new energy vehicles of 200 million yuan in 2021. Although it is good news, guangzhou's subsidy expectations in 2022 are not clear, considering the background of subsidy decline, local dealers are facing the risk of order loss at the end of the year.