Author | Jia Weizhong
Source | Car selection network
——Analysis of the 2021 Passenger Car Market Economy Index
In 2021, the mainland's GDP reached a new high, automobile production and sales ended a downward trend for three consecutive years, and many parties predicted that the momentum of automobile production and sales growth in 2022 will continue. However, the lack of low-end consumption will lead to more fierce competition between Chinese and foreign auto brands this year.
In other words, in 2022, not only will the tail enterprises be in trouble, but the shrinking share of the waist enterprises will be intensified, and the head enterprises will also fight to the death for the limited market share.
Many parties predict the growth of the automobile market in 2022
2021 is a very extraordinary year in the history of the development of the mainland automobile industry, in the face of the continuous evolution of the global epidemic situation, tight supply of automotive chips and other complex and severe situations, China's automobile production and sales have achieved double growth, inseparable from a stable macroeconomic operating environment.
Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released the 2021 China Economic Annual Report: "In 2021, the mainland's GDP will reach 1143670 billion yuan, breaking through the 110 trillion mark, and the GDP growth rate will reach 8.1%, completing the expected target of more than 6% for the whole year." ”
At the same time, according to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: "In 2021, the production and sales of mainland automobiles reached 26.082 million units and 26.275 million units, respectively, an increase of 3.4% and 3.8% year-on-year, ending a three-year downward trend." ”
Looking forward to 2022, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers expects: "The total sales volume of mainland vehicles this year is expected to reach 27.5 million units, an increase of about 5% year-on-year." Among them, passenger cars were 23 million units, an increase of 7% year-on-year. The long-term macroeconomic fundamentals of the mainland will not change, which is an important guarantee for the sustained growth of the automobile market in 2022. ”
Wang Qing, deputy director of the Market Economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said: "In 2022, car sales will be about 27 million vehicles, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 3%-5%. The main basis for this judgment is, on the one hand, that some of the demand that has been suppressed in 2021 will be gradually released in 2022. On the other hand, the potential growth rate of market-backed automotive demand at the current stage is between 3% and 4%, and the actual growth rate will automatically return to the potential growth rate. ”
Bai Ling, an industry research expert in the product planning department of Chongqing Chang'an, believes that "macro policies are mainly to promote consumption and stimulate domestic demand, and more focus on the general direction of medium and long term, and there may be no special precise policies implemented in the automobile market in 2022." Therefore, it is expected that the retail sales growth rate of passenger cars will be 6.1% in 2022, and the new energy vehicles will rise to the level of 4 million units, and the market share will increase to 18.9%. ”
Although many parties predict that the auto market is expected to continue to grow in 2022, the uneven heating and cooling of the high, medium and low end car market in 2021 has made the industry worried about the performance of this year's market segment.
Segments are hot and cold
In 2021, the consumption capacity of automobiles will rise sharply, and the consumption level will increase slightly, and the reason behind it is the structural imbalance in the demand of the market segment.
Statistical analysis from Beijing Regular Dentons shows that the market size of passenger cars in 2021 reached 3,867 billion yuan, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year; the regular passenger car market size index (cumulative) reached 631.9 points, up 42.5 points from 2020, indicating a significant increase in consumption capacity. The average cumulative market sales price for the whole year was 184,000 yuan, an increase of 0.2 million yuan over 2020; the regular passenger car price index (cumulative) was 126.6 points, up 0.9 points from 2020, marking a slight increase in consumption levels.
Last year, the growth rate of low-end cars below 80,000 yuan exceeded that of high-end cars above 200,000 yuan, which boosted the expansion of the passenger car market and lowered the average market sales price. According to the data of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, the cumulative sales of passenger cars in 2021 were 21.054 million units, an increase of 6.4% year-on-year. Among them, low-end cars sold 2.714 million units, up 29.5% year-on-year; high-end cars sold 7.578 million units, up 10.0% year-on-year.
In stark contrast to the extremely hot high-end and low-end demand, the mid-range car market of 90,000-190,000 yuan is sluggish, and sales are slightly lower than the 2020 level. According to statistics, the cumulative sales of mid-range passenger cars in 2021 were 10.762 million units, an increase of -0.3% year-on-year.
From the supply side, the growth of mid-range cars is weak, an important reason is the shortage of chips leading to insufficient supply, and some foreign brand manufacturers give priority to the limited chips to supply high-end models to ensure profits, which objectively also aggravates the situation of insufficient supply of some mid-range cars.
Two major segments ushered in a shopping contest
In 2021, the consumption capacity and consumption level of passenger cars will both grow, and it is expected that the passenger car market will continue to rise in 2022. However, the competition between Chinese and foreign brands in the middle and low-end markets may be unprecedentedly fierce.
In 2021, the share of Chinese brand passenger cars hit a new high in the past five years, and foreign brands that lost the market due to insufficient supply are bound to make efforts to pull back a city in 2022. According to statistics, in 2021, a total of 9.366 million Chinese brand passenger cars were sold, an increase of 26.0% year-on-year, and the market share reached 44.5%, and the share increased by 6.9 percentage points year-on-year. During the same period, the share of German and Japanese passenger cars fell by 4.1 and 2.4 percentage points, respectively. With the gradual increase in chip supply in 2022, it is a high probability event that the share of Chinese brands and foreign brands will change with each other.
The mid-range low-cost car market of 90,000-140,000 yuan may become the main battlefield of Chinese and foreign brands. Judging from the trend of the past five years, mid-range car sales account for 50% of the total number of passenger cars, while 90,000-140,000 yuan of mid-range low-cost cars account for more than 40%. In 2022, whether it is a Chinese brand that wants to consolidate the existing share advantage and continue to expand upwards, or a foreign brand that vows not only to recover the lost share, but also to increase its downward exploration, it must win this part of the market, so it is a high probability event for both sides to start a bloody battle in this field.
In the low-end car market below 80,000 yuan, fuel vehicles and low-end electric vehicles may be in a shopping squabble. The key reason for the rapid growth in low-end car sales in 2021 is that the sales of low-end low-priced cars below 60,000 yuan have risen by nearly 50%, and the share has risen sharply by 1.8 percentage points. At the same time, due to the impact of the epidemic, the motorcycle market has grown strongly, and this part of the consumer upgrades the car in the future is expected to drive further growth in low-end car sales. According to the data of the Association, "From 2016 to 2019, the average annual registered number of motorcycles was less than 5 million units, reaching 8 million units in 2020 and more than 10 million units in 2021." ”
In 2021, the market below 60,000 yuan is mainly the world of low-end pure electric vehicles, and most of the 70,000-80,000 yuan market is still traditional fuel vehicles. In 2022, in order to compete for market share, more foreign brand fuel vehicles or will explore the low-end market. At the same time, in order to deepen the transformation of electrification, more domestic electric vehicles will also be upgraded into this field. Therefore, the competition for low-end cars will be more intense in 2022.
The challenge of new downward pressure on the auto market
In 2022, the root cause of the outbreak of blood shopping in the middle and low-end car markets is that the economy is facing new downward pressure, and the consumption capacity of low- and middle-income people has declined, resulting in insufficient domestic demand.
Recently, Yao Jingyuan, a special researcher of the Counsellor's Office of the State Council and former chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, said to the media: "At the end of 2021, the Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that the current Chinese economic development is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and expected weakening. In the operation of the entire national economy, the growth of domestic demand is weaker than that of external demand, the profitability of middle and downstream enterprises is weaker than that of upstream, and the operating difficulties of small and micro enterprises are greater than those of large and medium-sized enterprises. The "demand contraction" proposed by experts is mainly due to the decline in the income of low-end consumer groups.
Overall, it is a high probability event that the auto market will continue to grow in 2022, but structural problems still exist. Among them, the demand for high-end cars that have been suppressed due to chip supply will be gradually released, driving high-end cars to maintain high growth. At the same time, due to the decline in the income expectations of low-end consumer groups, buying a car may be more picky, so the low-end market may show growth in sales data, but it is expected that the competitive pressure and difficulty faced by manufacturers will not decrease but increase.
(Image source: Internet)