Image source @ Visual China
Text | Shentucar, by | Zhou Jifeng, Editor | dawn
On the afternoon of January 18, Times Electric Service, a subsidiary of CATL, held its first press conference online. In the video, Zeng Yuqun, chairman of the Ningde times, sat on the car, took out a piece of chocolate, and said to the camera: "Come to a piece? ”
Don't get me wrong, Zeng Yuqun is not ready to live stream the goods.
They created a so-called chocolate swap block — a mass-produced battery specifically developed to achieve a power swap pattern. Also on the same day, CATL released the power exchange service brand EVOGO "Lexing Battery Change".
The world's first battery giant has officially entered the power exchange market.
Designing batteries as "chocolate cubes"
The power exchange scheme of the Ningde era is mainly composed of three products: "power exchange block, quick change station and APP".
The power exchange block, that is, the "chocolate power exchange block", this power exchange block adopts the CTP technology of the Ningde era, and a single battery can provide an endurance of about 200 kilometers, and can be freely combined to flexibly match different endurance needs.
According to the official statement, this battery can be applied to passenger cars and logistics vehicles from A00 class, B class to C class; it can be adapted to the models developed by pure electric platforms that are 80% of the world's 80% already on the market and will be launched in the next three years.
At the quick change station, only three parking spaces are needed for a standard station, and 48 power exchange blocks can be stored in the station. Different versions of the substation can be adapted to the climatic environment of different regions.
Crucially, the replacement time for a single block only takes about a minute.
For electric vehicle owners who have endurance anxiety and cannot grab the charging pile, one minute to change the power is indeed fast enough and convenient enough.
CATL also designed a supporting APP. Users can freely choose the number of rental blocks through the APP, if you want to travel long distances, you can choose two or three blocks, and you can choose one piece for commuting.
In the eyes of many people in the industry, the power exchange model of the Ningde era has indeed made certain innovations.
For example, the current commonly used power exchange method in the field of power exchange is mainly the vertical power exchange of the overall battery pack chassis and the side of the sub-box chassis, while the chocolate exchange block belongs to the vertical power exchange of the sub-box chassis.
"The vertical power exchange of the sub-box chassis not only has higher requirements for the energy density and consistency of the single battery pack, but also has stricter requirements for the stability and synergy of the communication between the battery packs and the whole battery pack and the whole vehicle, which requires new innovations in battery materials, battery processes, battery packs and battery management technologies." Chai Daixuan, director of CIC's Consulting, pointed out to Shentu.
For another example, the current power exchange is basically a one-time supplement to the overall battery pack, but the chocolate power exchange block can arbitrarily select one or more batteries to meet a variety of travel needs.
"Combined with battery banking, battery rental and other models, it can further reduce consumers' car purchase and use costs." Chai Daixuan said.
The ambition of the "King of Ning"
Why did a manufacturer of batteries suddenly cut into the power exchange market?
"The most realistic reason is, of course, to sell more batteries." Wang Pengbo, a senior expert in the field of new energy vehicles, believes.
There are two sets of batteries required for power exchange, one set of batteries is installed on the car, and the other set of batteries is placed in the replacement power station. If car companies cooperate with the Ningde era, they naturally have to buy more batteries.
From a larger perspective, Chai Daixuan pointed out: "First, the power exchange allows the NINGDE era to have a direct consumer-facing scene, and it can also directly connect with the terminal consumer through the APP terminal, and the future business model and scene are more imaginative; second, based on the power exchange, the NINGDE era can participate in the actual operation of battery assets, understand the specific situation of the battery, and the power exchange helps the battery ladder to be recycled, so that the re-resource of the battery forms a commercial closed loop." ”
Of course, as a trillion-dollar top stream, the Ningde era cut into the power exchange market, and its ambitions do not stop there.
The power battery pack specifications, models, interfaces, and parameters on electric vehicles are different. Due to the lack of a unified standard, the current single substation can basically only serve a single brand, and the multi-model service of the substation is in the early pilot stage. The Ningde era tried to break the barriers of battery and model adaptation. According to the official statement of the Ningde era, the "chocolate exchange block" can be adapted to the models developed by 80% of the world's pure electric platform.
Wang Pengbo pointed out that CATL hopes that all brand models can use "chocolate for electric blocks", which is equivalent to NINGDE times providing a third-party standard solution. If the car company wants to join the replacement power station of the Ningde era, it needs to follow the battery standard it has formulated.
"The Ningde era was a supplier of weilai and other tram companies a long time ago. Ningde went deeper this time, in fact, it also wants to exert its standardization capabilities and reduce the impact of customized research and development of vehicle companies on costs. Ding Rui, founder and chairman of Zhichong Technology, who has been deeply involved in the field of new energy vehicle energy replenishment for many years, told Shentu.
If the standards established by the Ningde era are implemented, the discourse power of the Ningde era on the electric vehicle industry chain will be improved.
In the current car-making industry chain, the automaker is still the absolute protagonist, and the car company can independently choose the model and specification of the power battery. Once the power battery has a standard, and the standard is formulated by the battery manufacturer, then the battery manufacturer's voice in the entire automotive industry chain will be further improved.
"It is even possible to participate in the development of new vehicles by automakers in advance." An industry insider pointed out.
However, from the perspective of car companies, the choice of power batteries is often based on the mastery of battery technology and product positioning. In order to grasp the initiative, few car companies are willing to open the power exchange interface and accept the battery standards formulated by third parties.
"Car companies are definitely not willing to accept the bundle, and no one wants to become a company that only makes shells." More realistically, whether it is a battery or an energy company, it is actually a supplier of car companies, and the hard bundling relationship will not be established. Ding Rui said to Shentu, "The main problem of power exchange is the acceptance of customers, the power exchange technology is not too difficult, the difficulty is whether there are companies willing to make profits." ”
Auto analyst Zhang Xiang said, "Just like SAIC was reluctant to cooperate with Huawei before, the current OEMs are not willing to give the soul of the battery to the supplier." ”
In Zhang Xiang's view: "Mainstream car companies are unwilling to cooperate with the Ningde era, and only some terminal car companies that have no funds to develop new energy vehicles are willing to cooperate with the Ningde era." At yesterday's press conference, mainstream car companies such as Wei Xiaoli, Tesla, Geely, and SAIC also did not stand for the Ningde era. ”
In the list of EVOGO's cooperation, there is currently only one CAR, FAW Besturn NAT. It is understood that The Besturn NAT is a pure electric product developed by the FAW Besturn brand for the travel market such as rental and online car-hailing.
Can the electricity replacement business be done in the Ningde era?
In fact, the power exchange mode has been developed for more than ten years, and in 2009, the State Grid proposed the operation mode of "power exchange as the mainstay, plug-in as a supplement, centralized charging, and unified distribution". But in practice, it has not been as popular as the charging mode.
There are many players in the power exchange market, among which the most well-known is Weilai. In addition, many car companies have built their own power stations, such as Geely, BAIC BJEV and so on.
The swap model itself is an asset-heavy model. A substation needs a long process from the establishment to the real profitability.
Huaxi Securities has calculated that the cost of equipment for a single substation is about 2 million yuan, which does not include subsequent operating costs, battery costs, land leasing and personnel costs.
In addition, there is uncertainty about the economic benefits of the substation, the speed of investment recovery and the cycle.
Soochow Securities has calculated that if it serves an operating vehicle with a daily mileage of 200 kilometers, a single substation can achieve breakeven by serving 100 vehicles per day and utilizing 24% of the utilization rate; if it serves a commercial vehicle with a daily driving mileage of 800 kilometers, the single substation can achieve breakeven by serving 20 vehicles per day and utilizing the utilization rate of 5%.
Although the battery swap model has been developed for so many years, most of the players who enter the game are operating at a loss.
As a global leader in power batteries, CATL has a certain advantage in the research and development and production of battery technology in the early stage of the replacement power station. However, even as a battery giant, if the number of daily power changes does not meet expectations, there is also a risk of loss in the Ningde Times De Replacement Power Station.
However, the Ningde era chose to test the water and change electricity from the B-end online car-hailing scene first, which is a good move.
"Operating vehicles is actually an application scenario that requires power exchange, with a long average daily mileage, high-frequency and fixed energy supply needs, and the time saved by power exchange compared with charging can bring actual profits to the drivers of operating vehicles." Chai Daixuan said.
In the future, there is still a long room for exploration in the power exchange mode. "Power exchange and charging are not the two forms of 'intolerable tigers', and they have value in different scenarios in the future." I think that power exchange will be commercialized in specific environments, such as commercial scenarios such as buses and logistics. Relatively speaking, charging technology has developed new solutions such as night charging, order charging, energy storage charging, etc., and charging is a better choice for passenger cars, as well as other scenarios with low intensity of use or regular scenarios. Ding Rui said.
However, in the long run, if mainstream car companies do not cooperate, it will limit the development of the Ningde era in the power exchange market. It is also foreseeable that the "Ning Wang", which occupies half of the power battery market, is still facing challenges in the power exchange market.