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For the four masterpieces, there is an old saying in China: less do not look at the Water Margin, and old do not look at the Three Kingdoms. If you think about it carefully, the philosophy of life behind this sentence is indeed far-reaching. The implication is that the psychology of young people is in a period of shaping, easily affected by the bloody killing stories inside, and easy to embark on the road of crime. And the old do not look at the meaning of the Three Kingdoms is more obvious, there are too many stories of those intrigues and hearts, and the loess has been buried in the neck, or save yourself dim sum to live the rest of your life.
A "Romance of the Three Kingdoms" completely shows the magnificent era, the history of the world's strife in Luo Guanzhong's pen dragons and snakes flying, between the ink, how many heroes are only like a small wave, tumbling and disappearing, people are sighing. And the countless plots and means of power are even more dazzling and shocking to you.
Today's Three Kingdoms and Water Margin have spread all over the world, and it is said that there are at least a billion readers. I have read "Romance of the Three Kingdoms" several times, watched TV dramas, and read many derivative articles and books of "Romance of the Three Kingdoms". Unconsciously, gradually began to have a vague feeling.
That is to say, the two books of romance of the Three Kingdoms and the Tale of the Water Margin actually have a profound impact and poison on the entire Chinese nation. It seriously deflects the Confucian moral thought in traditional Chinese culture. What we often see in these two books is that it is full of negative factors such as treachery and insidiousness, non-faithfulness, advocating violence, contempt for the weak, treating human life as grass, not obeying order, and personal will above all else, and even affecting the thinking mode of some people today.
Therefore, it is true that there is no reason not to look at the Water Margin, and it does have a certain reason to look at the Three Kingdoms, but human society has been like this since ancient times, as the saying goes, the place where there are people is the jianghu, and in the vast majority of human society, there is always no lack of scheming, fighting and conflict of interests, which is the gene that has always existed in the blood of human beings for thousands of years, which is also an unchangeable fact determined by the immutable human nature.
As a novel based on historical facts, the Three Kingdoms not only provides us with countless examples of human power struggles in an all-round way, but also provides us with a classic model of the survival game between living great powers, which I believe still has a very profound reference significance for the international environment today or in the future.
History is really like a mirror, we can learn countless knowledge and lessons from it, if you look at history, you will find that the relationship between the big powers is basically a "scissors, stone, cloth" relationship, each other is related to each other, and there are checks and balances between each other. The cycle is endless. The same is true of the Three Kingdoms.
The basic principles of the struggle between the great powers are:
The boss must be unrelenting in his threats, and must not give him the opportunity to develop and grow, and if possible, he must be resolutely eradicated, such as the British Empire playing this set of pure fire. As for the second eldest, he should try to avoid confronting the boss head-on, and should have a good relationship with the third boss, and use the third to contain the boss, so that the boss does not completely point the target at himself.
The third elder should be cautious and low-key, neither to offend the boss, nor to offend the second, Taoguang is obscure, never come out, not only to be good at using the boss's psychology, but also to understand the calculations of the second. It is best to guide the boss and the second to do a lose-lose situation, and at the same time, you can cooperate with the inferior side from time to time, anyway, don't get caught in the tricks of others and be shot by others.
I have read Yi Zhongtian's "Three Kingdoms of Pin", and indeed the analysis is very wonderful, but I still feel that what this book is only a superficial phenomenon, and it is some strange tricks at the level of short-term interests, rather than the philosophical ideas of the national grand strategy. And without the guidance of philosophical thinking, any big country is not far away, and it is impossible to develop for a long time by relying only on the ingenuity and trickery of those small levels.
For example, in the Battle of Chibi, Zhuge Liang asked Guan Yu to guard Hua Rong Dao, Luo Guanzhong himself probably did not see Zhuge Liang's true strategic intentions at that time, the book only said that Zhuge Yue: "I look at the sky at night, Cao A should not be killed", so he deliberately let Guan Yu guard Hua Rong Dao and let Lao Cao a horse.
Old Master Yi's judgment on this matter was that Zhuge Liang knew Guan Yu's righteousness and would definitely let Cao Cao go, the purpose was to clean up Guan Yu's arrogance. In this way, the backbone of Liu Bei's group, especially the arrogant Guan Yu who was "kind to the pawns and proud of the scholar", obeyed and obeyed him, and thus laid his position in this team.
There are even many people who have examined whether there is a real thing. But to be honest, there is no need to ask whether the story in the Romance of the Three Kingdoms is true or false, anyway, it is a novel, true or false is not important, what is important is to analyze if there is such a thing, then what is the real intention behind the main historical figures at that time?
Personally, I think that all of the above is only a small-level analysis, but Zhuge Liang is actually playing a bigger game. My understanding of Zhuge Liang's deliberate release of Cao Cao is that this is an act from a grand strategic point of view.
Let's take a look at the situation at that time, among the three groups, Liu Bei's group was the weakest, basically in a situation of fleeing from the east to the west and sending people under the fence, so Liu Bei had to unite with Eastern Wu in order to protect himself, and Eastern Wu also faced the threat of Cao Cao's group, and accepted Liu Bei's group with the mentality of more allies the better.
The relationship between the three kingdoms of Wei Shu and Wu is just like the "scissors, stones, and cloth" mentioned above, and the Cao Cao clique is the nemesis of Eastern Wu, because Cao Cao blackmailed the Heavenly Son to order the princes, and his fierce generals were like clouds, representing orthodoxy, so if the Eastern Wu clique, as a local separatist force, confronted the Cao Cao clique representing the central government, Eastern Wu was far from Cao Cao in both moral and military strength, and there was no doubt that it would be defeated.
Eastern Wu was Liu Bei's nemesis, and Liu Bei's soldiers were widowed, "without tiles of the head and without a place to stand." Under the circumstances at that time, Eastern Wu was able to unite with them, because Eastern Wu could not even obey the orders of the central government, so there was no need to "take Uncle Liu Huang as a cadre", and at that time, Eastern Wu wanted to destroy Liu Bei absolutely in minutes. But as the second eldest, in the face of the threat of the boss, you must pull the third. So there is a boss, and the third is safe.
Liu Bei was the emperor of Zhongshan Jing, and was the emperor's uncle who was "eight poles fighting" at that time, and was an authentic imperial relative with the slogan of Kuang Fu Han Room and crusading against the rebels, so Liu Bei Group was instead a moral nemesis of Cao Cao's clique, with appeal to imperial court ministers and warlords everywhere, could divide the basis of Cao Cao's rule, and could unite Cao Cao's opposing sides to form an anti-Cao united front against Cao Cao's clique.
At this point in the analysis, I believe that the officials should understand. Therefore, cao cao must not die in the battle of Chibi, once Cao Cao dies, Sun Quan will inevitably sit on the throne, and Liu Bei will inevitably be finished. Zhuge Liang had seen clearly and plainly for a long time, but he could not explain it, so he made a mistake and let Guan Yu interpret Cao Cao, and at the same time surrendered Guan Yu. Kill two birds with one stone, simply taller.
Poor Guan Yu was still grateful for being a pawn, Wu Hou was very clever, is it possible for some of you rough men who fought their lives before the battle to understand?
The same is true of Zhuge Liang's empty city plan, which is a model of a profound understanding of human nature. A classic example of extremely accurate strategic positioning.
The slight difference is that this time the opponent Sima Yi is also extremely smart, so it is completely two people who are playing a double reed. It can be said that Zhuge Liang, Cao Pi and Sima Yi are again a "scissors, stone, cloth", a triangle relationship of continuous confrontation. And the message conveyed by Zhuge Liang sitting on the head of the city and playing the piano was actually: "You kill me, and Cao Pi will kill you."
Of course, the extremely clever Sima Yi understood, so he pretended to be frightened, and in order to act realistically, not only did the wolf run for more than twenty miles, but after encampment, he also explained to the generals with care: "Liang Ping was cautious in his life, and he did not take risks." Now when the city gates are opened, there will be an ambush. If our army advances, it will also be able to plan. Do you know? It is advisable to retreat quickly. "
In fact, as a military expert who has experienced hundreds of battles, in the face of such a low-hanging out city and the huge temptation to capture the highest military commander of the other side alive, at least even if he does not know the truth, the 150,000 troops can first surround the city and slowly study it, and then they can also send a death squad to rush to explore the truth.
When I saw this, I also had countless questions, and until today, I understand the deep meaning of Sima Yi. That's why people can laugh to the end. If Sima Yi and Xu Chu had a level of IQ, it was estimated that there would be no later Jin Dynasty, and it was also believed that if the general leading the troops on the other side would be Xu Chu, who was stunned, Zhuge Liang would never dare to put up this empty city plan that had flowed for thousands of years.
Later, Liu Bei's yiling defeat was also because his actions violated this grand strategic idea of continuous confrontation. With the national strength of the Shu state, he fought a war with Eastern Wu that had no suspense and was bound to lose. Of course, Sun Quan is also responsible for this matter, since the Eastern Wu Clique has taken back Jingzhou and has achieved its strategic purpose, it should completely leave Guan Yu a life and not do things to the extreme, which is the rationality of the second eldest at the level of grand strategy.
Or after being caught, try to adopt a soft policy for Lao Guan, the money beauty is greatly given, anyway, Lao Guan will not want, there will be no loss, it is estimated that the only loss is the money for those few meals a day. He could even be released in the end, and Guan Yu's grateful and righteous character would not continue to stalk.
However, Sun Quan killed Guan Yu just because he had insulted himself for marrying a daughter, which directly tied this matter into a dead knot, and the relationship with the Shu state was completely destroyed, and this balance triangle was broken. During the period, Sun Quan also played a little clever, gave Guan Yu's body to Cao Cao, and wanted to marry Cao Cao, but what kind of character Cao Cao was, he had long been insightful, not only carved a golden head for Guan Yu, but also buried him with the courtesy of the princes, and then he informed the Shu kingdom of the truth of the matter, and the next thing Lao Cao had to do was to move the stool and prepare to see this good drama of the second and third brothers against the wall.
The consequence of Sun Quan's irrationality was that it directly led to the later Battle of Yiling, although Liu Bei's clique was defeated, but it was often said that if he killed a thousand enemies and lost eight hundred, Eastern Wu's national strength and materials were also greatly consumed. In the later strategy, it could only mainly take a defensive position, and it was far behind the Wei state, whose national strength was far superior to its own. The Shu kingdom was even more miserable, recuperating for many years before slowly recovering. So impulse is always the devil! It must be a big thumbs up to the person who invented this phrase.
In fact, the example of such a serial triangle game in history is not only the existence of the Three Kingdoms, there are many more, let's look at some of the later historical materials.
At the end of the Ming Dynasty, if Li Zicheng knew the subsequent ending, he would definitely think that forcing the Chongzhen Emperor to die was also a bad move.
Let's analyze it from the perspective of "scissors, stones, and cloth": Li Zicheng was chongzhen's nemesis, and the Ming Dynasty represented by Chongzhen was the nemesis of the Jurchen clan (don't say no, for so many years the Jurchens could only nibble sand outside Guan, and watching the flower world of the Central Plains drooling is an example), and the Jurchen clan was the nemesis of Li Zicheng's peasant army (this can be seen from later contact battles). Li Zicheng suffered a loss and ate on the little culture of studying, plus he was surrounded by some mediocre talents who did not have a big strategic vision, and those who had vision were all killed by him, such as Li Zhi and others.
After the old Li Dynasty gained the momentum and broke into Beijing, he came up and forced his nemesis to die, and then he was overexcited, and he was so quick that he made a fool of himself, completely chaotic, and the entire Ming Dynasty bureaucratic clique turned away one after another, and also forced Wu Sangui to rebel, resulting in a crushing defeat of a stone, allowing the Qing Dynasty to destroy the two countries in world war I and laying the foundation for later sitting in a stable country.
Chongzhen Coal Mountain self-hanging map
Of course, history cannot be assumed, but we can push back on the outcome, if Chongzhen did not die, then Wu Sangui would not oppose, with Wu Sangui sitting at Shanhaiguan, then the Qing soldiers still have to drink bitterly on the northeast snowfield and wait for the opportunity, then there is a high probability that there will be no later Great Qing Kingdom. And Li Zicheng can still be called a king, the scenery is unlimited, and there is no regret ending that he later died at the hands of the old peasants in the Nine Palace Mountains.
Of course, if you think from another position, no one can predict what will happen in the future, and who is Li Zicheng who was then will also die chongzhen to get the world, and will not be satisfied with just cutting the land and becoming king, of course, if it is a descendant who crosses over to Li Zicheng, then I did not say. But it was an indisputable fact that this equilibrium triangle was broken at that time.
At the same time, Chongzhen also made many mistakes, in the situation at that time, as the boss, he should put down his body, more rationally adopt the advice of the Jurchen and concentrate on dealing with Li Zicheng, the second eldest, and at the same time, after the Tong pass was broken, he should also immediately move the capital to Nanjing, or at least send the prince to Nanjing. But Chongzhen's character determined his grand strategic thinking. To say that it is good is to have a backbone, and to say that it is ugly is to be a donkey.
We can see the end of the later, it is precisely because of the two threats, Guanning iron horse does not dare to fully mobilize, the number of Guanning iron horsemen stationed at Shanhaiguan that year was 40,000 people, you may think that the number does not seem to be much, but you have to know, Guanning iron horse is well-equipped, combat brave, is the only one that can resist the world's first cavalry at that time: the main force of the Eight Flags Brigade. The Manchu Qing dynasty is also the existence of the Guanning Iron Horse, and it has been unable to break through the Shanhaiguan Pass.
In the peasant revolt war at the end of the Ming Dynasty, the fierce generals Cao Wenzhao and Cao Changjiao even set a record of leading a thousand Guanning iron horses to beat hundreds of thousands of peasant troops to flee east and west. If all of them were to be brought in to suppress the peasant army, the outcome of victory or defeat would be really unpredictable.
Another mistake of Chongzhen was that he did not move the capital to Nanjing or send the prince to Nanjing, he and the prince, as an orthodox heir, had an unparalleled appeal to the world at that time, and as a result, he hanged himself and committed suicide, and the prince city has always become a mystery after the escape, which caused the situation of the later conflict between the kings, which seriously depleted the strength of the Southern Ming, let the Qing army break through each other, and finally unified the world.
Emperor Tai Chi
From this we can see that as a superior person, reason must come first. Among these three masters, I personally think that the only one who really understands the game history of the Three Kingdoms and uses it is Huang Taiji. Under the historical conditions at that time, the political force represented by this grandfather was the weakest, belonging to the typical third elder, and it was precisely because of the correct decision-making, knowing how to grasp the opportunity, and finally stood out and won the world in one fell swoop.
Another typical example is the Song Dynasty in our history.
The situation in China's history during the Northern Song Dynasty is also very similar to this "scissors, stones, cloth" principle, from a military point of view, at that time, the Liao State was the boss, the Jin State was the second oldest, and the Song was the third oldest.
Since the alliance of The Yuanyuan, Song and Liao have been friendly for a hundred years, but the annual tribute and title of subject is a thorn in Song's heart that can never be pulled out. Under the constant involvement of this thorn, in the face of the emerging Jin Dynasty, Song adopted a radical strategy and formulated the "Lianjin Annihilation liao", which broke the balance of this century-old in one fell swoop.
Later, however, we all learned that this was an extremely short-sighted strategy. Compared with the Liao state, the Jin state is more of a tiger and wolf country, more expansion and aggression, the Liao state at that time, can also become a barrier to northern China, and once the Jin state swallowed the Liao state, quickly went south, so it quickly occurred the later "shame of Jing Kang" and destroyed the Northern Song Dynasty. The Great Song Dynasty is only half of the country. At that time, even the king of Goryeo clearly saw this consequence, but the mediocre decision-makers of the Northern Song Dynasty suffered the consequences because they were distressed by the hundreds of thousands of years old coins.
Coincidentally, the historical tragedy of the Northern Song Dynasty's "Lianjin extinguishing the Liao" has not completely passed, and in the Southern Song Dynasty, the tragedy of "Lianmeng extinguishing the Jin" has recurred again, at this time the Jin State is the boss, the Mongolian second, and the Song is still the third. Many historians still have great controversy over the advantages and disadvantages of the Southern Song Dynasty's "joint Mongolian and mongolian annihilation of gold," and some even commented: "The joint Mongolian extermination of gold was a well-thought-out military and diplomatic strategy made by the Lin'an imperial court at the end of the Southern Song Dynasty to repay the shame of Jingkang."
But we also know the outcome of the later, in the end, the Jin Kingdom perished under the joint attack of Mongolia and the Southern Song Dynasty, Jin Aizong hanged himself, and the Song Dynasty also shot several arrows at the corpse of Aizong to vent his anger, which shows the great hatred. This ended the confrontation between Song and Jin that lasted for more than a hundred years and no one could help anyone. However, it was still a tiger that drove away and a group of wolves, and the southern Song Dynasty ended more tragically, and finally completely perished. As a result, there was also the famous historical comment that appeared later: "After the cliff mountain, there is no more China."
Looking back on this history, we can see that as far as the Song Dynasty was concerned, it was the weakest third in this ring, and the only correct choice at that time was to try its best to maintain the stability of this triangular relationship and continue its stability as much as possible, because although the Song Dynasty was militarily backward, it had an advanced cultural system and rich national strength. Therefore, the word "drag" is the best grand strategic decision of the Great Song Dynasty.
As a barbaric nation of Jinguo and Mongolia, which are relatively backward in culture and system, these factors are doomed to "its rise and fall, and its demise is also sudden", I do not believe that you see that the Mongol army was so strong that it was driven back to the steppe to herd sheep after only 90 years. If Song had taken some measures at that time not to make the boss die quickly, let this stable pattern drag on for decades, and let himself not become the first target, there would naturally be turmoil within it.
In that case, the Northern Song Dynasty and the Southern Song Dynasty may not be completely destroyed, and in that case, Chinese history may be another pattern. Sighingly, history cannot be changed, it can only become a mirror for us to learn from.
Since the beginning of the fight against mankind and the existence of a state, the Thucydides Trap has inevitably existed, which is determined by the immutable human nature. The great power game is actually a strategy and a rationality, thanks to the best mirror of history forever, so that we can still get these revelations from these historical stories in today's world.