Zhitong Finance APP was informed that Soochow Securities released a new energy research report that domestic electric vehicle sales in January were 430,000 vehicles, +141%/-19% year-on-year, with strong performance, and Soochow expected Q1 sales to exceed 1.1 million vehicles, with a high increase in the whole year; In January, the impulse volume in Europe and the United States fell back at the end of the quarter, of which 127,000 units were sold in ten European countries, +33%/-48% year-on-year, and 62,000 units in the United States, +75%/-18% year-on-year, in line with market expectations. Soochow expects domestic sales to exceed 6 million units (including exports) in 2022, more than 2.8 million units in Europe, more than 1.3 million units in the United States, and more than 10 million units in the world, an increase of 60%+. From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, lithium, graphitization, pvdf, diaphragm, copper foil, etc. continue to be tight, and Soochow is expected to continue until 2022, and it is still a double rise in quantity and profit in 2022; The battery link price increase landed, an increase of 5-10%, some car companies have followed the price increase, do not change the new orders strong.
In the short term, Q1 scheduling is not weak in the month-on-month period, while the valuation of the electric vehicle sector is adjusted back to 20-40X, still in the lower limit of historical valuation, the Q4 performance of leading companies exceeds market expectations, and Dongwu is strongly optimistic about the oversold reversal of the electric vehicle sector, and strongly pushes the leaders of each link. China and Europe and the United States on carbon emissions attached importance and commitment, will accelerate the process of photovoltaic from auxiliary energy to the main energy, at the end of 2021 silicon material slightly loosened, modules fell slightly back to 1.8-1.9 yuan / watt after the photovoltaic installed capacity demand is strong, household use continues to be hot, while the time-sharing electricity price policy to promote the development of industrial and commercial distribution and energy storage, 2022 photovoltaic installed capacity in the big year, Soochow is expected to install capacity of 155-160GW in 2021, the same increase of 20% +, 2022 is expected to exceed 45% + growth, Q1 leader full production, The off-season is not weak, and it is optimistic about the growth of photovoltaic high-quality leaders.
Industrial control domestic substitution continued, the prosperity began to pick up from December 2021, january leading orders further recovered, the leader of the strong Hengqiang, recommended key layout. The new power system brings structural opportunities, and the total investment in the power grid during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to increase steadily, focusing on grid construction, intelligent distribution network, digitalization, pumped storage and other directions, thus bringing new opportunities. After the wind power rush installation cost fell sharply, exports began to be competitive, and the domestic carbon neutrality background is expected to develop steadily.
Soochow Securities' views are as follows:
First, the electric vehicle sector
Domestic sales of domestic electric vehicles in January were strong, the off-season was not weak, fully blooming, and 2022 is still a big year of sales. According to the China Automobile Association, 431,000 electric vehicles were sold in January, +140%/-19% year-on-year; According to the data of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, the wholesale number of electric passenger cars in January was 412,000 units, +141%/-19% year-on-year; Retail sales of 347,000 units, +132%/-27% year-on-year, in line with market expectations. The performance of high-end cars in January was still strong, and the sales volume of low-end cars fell after the year-end impulse, and the sales structure exceeded market expectations. Among them, January A00 accounted for 31%, 2pct month-on-month, A0 level accounted for 15%, A-level accounted for 23%, flat month-on-month, B-level accounted for 31%, up 2pct month-on-month. In January, its own brands BYD, SAIC, GAC, Geely and Chery performed well, bucking the trend from the previous month, with sales of 93,000 units (Ring +1%), 14,000 units (Ring +8%), 16,000 units (Ring +11%), 17,000 units (Ring +1%), and 21,000 units (Ring +3%), while Shangtong Wuling sold 40,000 units (Ring +34%) and Great Wall Motor sold 14,000 units (Ring +34%), respectively, and fell back. Tesla's new forces are generally stable, Tesla produced 68,000 vehicles in January, wholesale 60,000 vehicles (-16% month-on-month), of which 40,000 units were exported; Xiaopeng sold 13,000 units (Ring -19%), Ideal sold 13,000 vehicles (Ring-13%), and NIO sold 10,000 vehicles (Ring-8%). We expect domestic Q1 electric vehicle sales to exceed 1.1 million, laying a high growth rate for the whole year, reaching 6 million vehicles in the whole year, an increase of 70% year-on-year.
After the European end-of-quarter impulse, January sales fell month-on-month, but maintained a 33% year-on-year growth, basically in line with market expectations. Affected by the demand for impulse overdraft at the end of 2021, the growth rate of electric vehicle sales in the mainstream ten European countries slowed down, with a total sales volume of 127,000 units in January, +33%/-48% year-on-year, and an electric vehicle penetration rate of 19.5%, +5.0/-11.4pct year-on-year, which is basically in line with market expectations; Among them, Germany, France, Norway by the high penetration rate of electric vehicles, the growth rate slowed down, but the proportion of pure electricity increased significantly year-on-year, Germany (sales of 40,000 vehicles, year-on-year +8%/-51%, pure electricity accounted for 53%, the same +9pct, electric vehicle penetration rate of 21.6%, year-on-year -0.1/-14.1pct); France (18,000 units sold, +24%/-53% year-on-year, 56% pure electricity, same +12pct, electric vehicle penetration rate of 17.6%, +6.0/-6.8pct year-on-year; Norway (sold 0.7 million units, -13%/-61% year-on-year, pure electricity accounted for 93%, the same +27pct, electric vehicle penetration rate of 90.5%, +9.8/+0.5pct year-on-year), the United Kingdom, Italy, Sweden and other countries fell about 30% month-on-month, the performance was better. Considering the tightening of the carbon emission assessment margin in Europe in 2022, the subsidy intensity is basically maintained, and the annual sales of electric vehicles are expected to reach 2.7 million units, an increase of 30%, and the proportion of pure electricity is expected to be further improved, and the structural optimization is obvious.
U.S. electric vehicle sales in January were 62,000 units, down from -18% month-on-month, in line with market expectations. The United States registered 62,000 electric vehicles in January, +75% year-on-year, -18% month-on-month, of which 50,000 pure electric vehicles were registered, 13,000 were registered in plug-in and hybrid, and the penetration rate of electric vehicles was 6.2%, +3.0pct year-on-year, flat month-on-month. According to car companies, Tesla sold 40,000 vehicles, +63%/-15% year-on-year, accounting for 64% of the total sales of electric vehicles in the United States, and the terminal demand was strong. In addition, Ford (0.32 million units, +480%/+14% year-on-year), Hyundai-Kia (0.35 million units, +244%/+7% year-on-year), Toyota (0.4 million units, +118%/+18% year-on-year), etc. all maintained positive month-on-month growth, mainly benefiting from the continuous start-up of models such as Mach-E and IONIQ 5, in addition to new forces such as Lucid (299 units) and Rivian (214 units) achieved stable deliveries. In the first year of electrification of pickup truck models in 2022, we expect Tesla pickup trucks, Ford F-150 pure electricity, the new forces in the United States, Rivian, Fisker and other car companies to release the volume, the annual sales of electric vehicles are expected to double to more than 1.3 million + units, 2021-2025 compound growth rate We are expected to exceed 50%, starting a long-term high growth. We expect that the follow-up supporting policies in the United States will be accelerated, and the rapid growth will begin in 2021-2025. Policy support superimposed on the new model launch cycle, we expect the United States to sell more than 1.3 million electric vehicles in 2022, continuing to double year-on-year, and the compound growth rate in 2021-2025 is expected to exceed 60% (the previous market expected growth rate of 30%+), and sales of more than 5 million vehicles by 2025, with a penetration rate of 15%. The corresponding power battery demand has increased from 20 gwh to 180 gwh.
January 22 production schedule is still continuing to rise, upstream lithium, midstream diaphragm / copper foil / graphitization and other continued to be tight, battery price increase market expectations are strong, profitability is about to bottom out. The off-season in January 2022 is not weak, the industry scheduling is still continuing to rise, which can increase by 5% month-on-month, and the industry has a preliminary understanding that the 2022Q1 industry scheduling is expected to be flat month-on-month, and the off-season is not weak. In 2022, based on the leading orders and expansion progress, we expect the shipments of core companies to double. From the perspective of the industrial chain, lithium carbonate, diaphragm, copper foil, and graphitization are all tight throughout 2022. In terms of batteries, Q4 is a re-negotiation window period for battery companies and car companies for 2022, due to the increase in the cost of upstream raw materials by more than 20%, the Q1 battery price negotiation has basically landed, and the domestic mainstream car companies have raised prices by 5-10%, covering the rise in raw material costs, while the battery price has increased by 10%, and the cost of bicycles has increased by about 4,000 yuan, and car companies are basically affordable. And some links in the middle of 2022 after the supply tension eased, the cost side is expected to decline, battery enterprise profit bottom has passed, is expected to rebound.
Battery technology continues to upgrade, leading the direction of the industry: 1) In the first half of 2022, the 4680 battery will be mass-produced by Tesla and Panasonic, the 4680 battery capacity will be increased by 5x, the energy density will be increased by 20%+, and the cost will be reduced by 15%, which is an important direction of the industry. We expect that after the 4680 discharge, it will significantly pull the demand for high nickel cathodes, silicon carbon anodes, structural parts, and carbon nanotube conductive agents; 2) Lithium ferro-ferrophosphate batteries will continue to mature gradually in 2022, and will move towards mass production in 2023, and Ningde will cooperate with Germans in depth, and if successful, the energy density of lithium iron batteries can be increased by 20%; 3) PET copper foil / aluminum foil is about to be released, can improve battery safety and energy density, Ningde first through jinmei new material layout, but its process is complex production efficiency is low, we expect that before 2025 the mainstream is still traditional copper foil / aluminum foil.
Investment advice: We continue to strongly promote the lithium battery midstream global leader and lithium resource leader with large price elasticity, strongly promote Ningde Times, BYD (01211), Yiwei Lithium Energy, Enjie shares, Kodali, Ronbay Technology, Putailai, Defang Nano, Tiannai Technology, Tianci Materials, Xinzhubang, Zhongwei Shares, Huayou Cobalt, Ganfeng Lithium (Concern) (01772), Tianqi Lithium (Concern), etc. and parts Hongfa Shares, Huichuan Technology, Sanhua Zhikong, etc., focusing on recommending Xingyuan Materials, Nord Shares, Pay attention to Zhongke Electric, Beiterui, Jiayuan Technology, Rongjie Shares, Tianhua Chaojing, Yongxing Materials, Sunwoda, etc.
Second, the wind and solar new energy plate
The bid opening price of the third batch of China Resources Power for 3GW is 1.8-2.0 yuan / W. On February 15, China Resources Power released the third batch of photovoltaic project photovoltaic module equipment centralized procurement bid, with a total scale of 3GW, the price is between 1.8-1.999 yuan / W, and the average price is 1.876 yuan / W. Since 2022, demand and scheduling have continued to rise, and in January 2022, the component scheduling has increased significantly, an increase of 10-30% month-on-month, and the start of construction in February has been basically flat month-on-month, so the price of the industrial chain has also risen slightly. The price of silicon materials rose from about 230,000 to more than 240,000, and the quotations of first-line component manufacturers also rose by 0.05-0.1 yuan / W. The price rise of the industrial chain fully verifies that the off-season demand in Q1 2022 is not weak, overseas India, Japan, Poland and other markets rush to grab equipment goods, domestic distributed photovoltaic rapid growth, ground demand gradually started, we expect 2022 Q1 global photovoltaic installed capacity of 45-50GW, an increase of more than 60%.
PV industry chain price:
Silicon
Last week (February 14-20), the upstream link of the inquiry and transaction are relatively active, in order to meet the downstream demand, wafer mills actively purchase production demand, and strive to continue to improve the crystal pulling movement.
The overall quotation level of the silicon material link continued to rise slightly, the high price of quotation was promoted to 244-247 yuan or more per kilogram, and the transaction price also increased slightly, and the average price rose to about 240 yuan per kilogram.
On the supply side, the actual supply of silicon materials has a limited increase in speed, although the supply in February increased slightly, but at present, the overall new supply of silicon materials in the first quarter of this year is still insufficient compared with the new demand for silicon wafer pulling. In response to the start of silicon procurement negotiations and order signings in March, we expect to enter a more intensive negotiation cycle next week.
silicon chip
The signing of orders in the silicon wafer link is better, and mainstream manufacturers face various problems in the delivery process of silicon wafer orders, and the delivery cycle is difficult to coordinate, etc., and the reasons are more complicated. Although the overall growth of the crystal pull link in February continued to increase month-on-month, in the context of the relatively concentrated downstream demand, the increased supply of monocrystalline silicon wafers seems to be invisible in the market.
The average price of monocrystalline silicon wafers 182mm/165μm size specifications rose to about 6.39 yuan per piece, and the 166mm/165μm size specifications rose to about 5.31 yuan per piece, an increase of about 0.6%. In addition, although the average price of 210mm/160μm size specifications has been temporarily maintained at 8.45 yuan per piece, the supply of manufacturers has gradually increased, and the low price range has also risen slightly to 8.37 yuan recently.
Battery
Last week, the upstream price continued to rise slightly, so that last week's battery manufacturers M6/M10/G12 cell transaction price transaction average price range to 1.07-1.1/1.1-1.1-1.13/1.1-1.14 yuan per watt, the transaction price range and last week's gap is not large, last week's average price moved slightly up to 1.09/1.12/1.12 yuan per watt, the average price of overseas is also affected by overseas sales growth in South Korea, India and other places, and the price has been slightly raised. Up to now, the price of M10 has come to the level of 0.158-0.16 us dollars per watt, the battery order is stable, and the silicon wafer order has a certain support, the price of silicon wafer is difficult to decline significantly in the short term, the short-term domestic battery price is stable, and overseas regions are still benefited by demand.
The multi-crystal part, affected by the rise in the price of silicon wafers, the price of cells is 3.75-3.9 yuan per piece, overseas about 0.53-0.55 US dollars per piece, and there is still a price increase trend in the follow-up.
subassembly
Although the component side has begun to adjust the pricing strategy last week, the market is expected to adjust the domestic price range of about 2 cents per watt, overseas 0.002-0.004 US dollars per watt, but last week the price was limited by the acceptance of the terminal, the price has not yet appeared a significant rise, only some channels distributed project prices to 1.9-1.92 yuan per watt (including shipping tax), the current manufacturers, terminals are still in a wait-and-see attitude, some manufacturers have reduced material orders, Some component manufacturers plan to reduce the turnover rate from late February to March, and the terminal is also due to the uncertainty of order visibility in March, the price rally and the wait-and-see mood are gradually expanding.
At present, the price range of domestic first-line manufacturers is 166 single glass prices of about 1.8-1.9 yuan per watt, and the price of 500W + single glass modules is about 1.8-1.92 yuan per watt. Among them, it is worth noting that the 166 market share decays, manufacturers have plans to transform production capacity in the first half of the year, and the reduction in production will also be accompanied by 166 and 182 specifications gradually converging on the price.
At present, the price of overseas regions is stable, the market demand in Europe and India rose in the first quarter, and the price in January is currently 500W + single glass modules about 0.27-0.275 us dollars per watt.
Wind power
According to the statistics of China Electricity Federation, the new installed capacity of wind power in November was 5.51GW, an increase of 0.3% year-on-year, and the cumulative new wind power generation capacity from January to November 2021 was 24.7GW, unchanged year-on-year; From January to November 2021, the cumulative number of wind power utilization hours was 2031 hours, an increase of 119 hours over the same period of the previous year。 Since the implementation of the policy in May 2019, the wind power industry has opened the pre-parity rush to install the market, and the industry tender volume and price have risen together, and the industry's public bidding volume from January to December 2020 has been 65.3GW, an increase of 94.9% year-on-year, exceeding the total annual bidding volume in previous years. Tender prices also rebounded by more than 17% from the 2018 price lows, but there was a significant decline in the tender price of wind turbines in early August 2021. In 2020, the amount of grid connection exceeds market expectations, and we expect a significant decline in 2021, but offshore wind power is growing rapidly and ushering in offshore wind power parity in 2023.
Third, industrial control and power equipment sector
January 2022 manufacturing PMI 50.1, previous value 50.3, -0.2pct, for three consecutive months on the Boom and Bust line: of which large enterprises PMI 51.6 (mom +0.3pct), medium-sized enterprises 50.5 (mo-0.8pct), small businesses 46.0 (mo-0.5pct); In December 2021, the industrial added value was +4.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was +0.5pct month-on-month; In 2021, the cumulative amount of fixed asset investment in the manufacturing industry was +13.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was -0.2pct month-on-month. From January to December 2021, the power grid investment was 495.1 billion yuan, +5.4% year-on-year, of which the investment in December 2021 was 84.9 billion yuan, +12.2% year-on-year, and the capacity of substation equipment above 220kV was 243.34 million kVA in January-December, +9.2% year-on-year. In 2022, the two sessions of the State Grid will be released, and 501.2 billion yuan will be invested in 2022, +6% year-on-year.
January 2022 PMI 50.1, month-on-month -0.2pct, for three consecutive months on the boom-bust line, limited electricity and other factors affect the prosperity of the decline, in December 2021 manufacturing fixed asset investment completed the cumulative increase of 13.5%, the growth rate of -0.2pct; In December 2021, the added value of industries above designated size in the manufacturing industry increased by 4.3%, and the growth rate was +0.5pct month-on-month. In January 2022, the official PMI was 50.1, down 0.2 points month-on-month, of which the large/medium/small enterprise PMI was 51.6/50.5/46.0, and +0.3pct/-0.8pct/-0.5pct, and the manufacturing boom improved slightly, and the follow-up continued attention to the PMI index.
In terms of prosperity: in the short term, we continue to track the capital expenditure of the midstream manufacturing industry, and after the sustained economic recovery, if the manufacturing capacity expansion further increases the demand for industrial control equipment.
The official PMI in January 2022 was 50.1, -0.2 points month-on-month, of which the PMI of large/medium/small enterprises was 51.6/50.5/46.0, respectively, and +0.3pct/-0.8pct/-0.5pct, and the manufacturing boom has rebounded.
In December 2021, the growth rate of industrial added value continued to rebound slightly: in December 2021, the cumulative added value of industries above the manufacturing scale increased by 4.3%, and the growth rate was +0.5pct month-on-month, continuing a high degree of prosperity.
The growth rate of fixed asset investment in manufacturing industry declined in December 2021: the cumulative amount of fixed asset investment in manufacturing in December 2021 was +13.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was -0.2pct; Among them, general equipment was +9.8% year-on-year, and special equipment was +24.3% year-on-year, which was better than general equipment.
In December 2021, robots and machine tools increased steadily: the output of industrial robots in December 2021 was +15.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was -12.8pct; Metal cutting machine tool output +5.8% year-on-year, growth rate of +3.7pct; Metal forming machine tool production was flat year-on-year.
UHV propulsion rhythm:
Under the double carbon strategy, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the State Grid will continue to promote uhvon construction, in March 2021, the State Grid issued a carbon peak carbon neutrality action plan, the State Grid's new cross-regional transmission channel will be based on the transmission of clean energy, will be planned to build 7 UHVDC, the new transmission capacity of 56 million kilowatts. By 2025, the inter-provincial and inter-regional transmission capacity of the State Grid Operation Zone will reach 300 million kilowatts, and the proportion of clean energy transmission will reach 50%.
By early August 2021, projects such as the Qinghai-Henan, Zhangbei-Xiongyan, Northern Shaanxi-Hubei, Yazhong-Jiangxi and South Grid Yunnan-Guizhou Interconnection Projects have been approved, and bidding has begun after the approval of the projects.
In 2018, the three lines of Mengxi-Jinzhong, Qinghai-Henan, and Zhangbei-Xiong were successively approved according to the "two exchanges", and in the first half of 2019, Zhumadian-Nanyang, Shaanxibei-Wuhan, Yazhong-Jiangxi "two straights and one interchange" were successively approved, and the second half of 2019 was relatively blank.
In March 2020, the State Grid issued the "Preliminary Work Plan for Key Power Grid Projects in 2020", promoting the approval and start of construction of 5, 2 and 13 other key projects, with a total dynamic investment of 107.3 billion, of which UHV AC 33.9 billion, DC 57.7 billion, and other projects 13.7 billion, and added 3 new DC projects for pre-feasibility study.
On April 2, 2020, the State Grid held the first meeting of the "New Infrastructure" Leading Group to ensure that the "3 transfers and 1 straight" project will be completed within the year.
On November 4, 2020, the National Development and Reform Commission approved the Baihetan-Jiangsu ± 800kV UHVDC transmission project transmission terminal converter station and the transmission line in Chongqing and Jiangsu.
Follow-up attention to the approval of the construction of unapproved projects, UHV AC and DC enterprises Nari, Pinggao Electric, Xu Ji Electric, TBEA, China Xidian and so on are expected to benefit.
This article is selected from "Soochow Securities", author: Zeng Duohong team; Zhitong Finance Editor: Xiong Xiao.