Soochow Securities: Electric vehicle sales in February exceeded expectations and terminal demand was strong

Zhitong Finance APP learned that Soochow Securities released a research report saying that electric vehicles sold 334,000 vehicles in February, +184.3% /-22.6% year-on-year, in line with market expectations. In the 22-year new model cycle, the bank is expected to sell 6 million vehicles (including exports), an increase of 70%+. Continue to look at the electric vehicle leader in an all-round way, the first main line is optimistic about the battery link of 22 years of profit repair, the long-term pattern is good, the superimposed energy storage blessing, the leader Ningde era, Yiwei lithium energy, BYD, pay attention to Sunwoda, Azure lithium core, the second main line: battery technology upgrade high nickel ternary (Ronbay Technology, Huayou Cobalt, Zhongwei shares, Dangsheng Technology), structural parts (Kodali), manganese iron lithium (German nano), additives (Tiannai Technology); The third is the leader who continues to be in short supply: diaphragm (Enjie shares, Xingyuan materials), negative electrodes (Putailai, pay attention to Beiterui, Zhongke Electric, Shanshan shares), electrolyte (Tianqi materials, new State), copper foil (Jiayuan Technology, Nord shares); Article 4: Lithium shortage and price exceed expectations, it is recommended to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, Yongxing Materials, Rongjie Shares, Salt Lake Shares, Tibet Mining, Tianhua Ultra Net, etc.

Sales of new energy vehicles in February were 334,000 units, +184.3%/-22.6% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations. According to the China Automobile Association, the output of new energy vehicles in February was 368,000 units, an increase of 197.5% year-on-year, down 19% month-on-month, and the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in January and February were 765,000 units, an increase of 154.7% year-on-year; Production volume was 820,000 units, up 158.2% year-on-year. New energy passenger car sales in February were 321,000 units, up 182.2% year-on-year and down 23.4% month-on-month; Production volume was 354,000 units, up 195.0% y/y and down 18.99% sequentially. From January to February, the cumulative production of new energy passenger vehicles was 790,000 units, an increase of 158.3% year-on-year; Sales totaled 740,000 units, up 155.8% year-on-year. New energy commercial vehicle sales in February were about 13,000 units, up 251.3% year-on-year and 1.8% month-on-month; Production was 15,000 units, up 274.6% y/y and down 6.3% sequentially.

In February, the performance of high-end cars was still strong, the share of low-end cars declined, and the sales structure was continuously optimized. In February, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars were 317,000 units, +193%/-24% year-on-year, and the sales of pure electric passenger cars were 245,000 units, +166%/-28% year-on-year, accounting for 77%, down 4pct month-on-month. Among them, A00-class sales of 67,700 vehicles, an increase of 105% year-on-year, down 39% month-on-month, accounting for 28%, down 5pct month-on-month; A0-class sales of 33,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 476%, a decrease of 34% month-on-month, accounting for 14%, a decrease of 1pct; A-class sales of 57,000 units, up 319% year-on-year, down 24% month-on-month, accounting for 23%, up 1pct month-on-month; Class B sales of 85,500 units increased by 124% year-on-year, down 15% month-on-month, accounting for 35% of the total, and up 5pct month-on-month. Plug-in passenger car sales were 71,900 units, up 353% year-on-year, down 9% month-on-month, accounting for 23% of new energy vehicle sales, up 4pct month-on-month.

In February, exports of new energy vehicles were 45,400 units, a sharp increase year-on-year and a slight decrease from the previous month. In February, the export of new energy vehicles was 45,400 units, +361%/-12% year-on-year, of which 43,200 pure electric passenger cars were exported, down 15% month-on-month; Plug-in hybrid passenger car exports of 0.22 million units, up 126% month-on-month. From January to February, the cumulative export of new energy passenger vehicles was 97,100 units, an increase of 513% year-on-year. In February, Tesla exported 33,315 New Energy Vehicles from China, 4,536 from Dongfeng EasyJet, 4,325 from SAIC Passenger Vehicles, 804 by BYD, 588 from Geely, 218 from Great Wall Motors, and 240 from SAIC Maxus.

Looking at the types of car companies, Tesla has performed well and its market share has steadily increased. In February, self-owned car companies sold 195,100 units, an increase of 235% year-on-year, down 24% month-on-month, with a market share of 62% and a market share of 62% month-on-month, with a cumulative market share of 62% from January to February; Tesla sold 56,500 units in February, an increase of 118% year-on-year, down 6% month-on-month, with a market share of 18%, a market share of 4pct month-on-month, and a cumulative market share of 16% in January-February; In February, the new forces sold 38,800 vehicles, an increase of 172% year-on-year, down 40% month-on-month, 12% market share, 3pct month-on-month, and 14% cumulative market share from January to February; The joint venture car company sold 20,100 units in February, an increase of 238% year-on-year, down 18% month-on-month, with a market share of 7% and a cumulative market share of 6% from January to February; Luxury sold 0.57 million units in February, up 66% year-on-year, down 42% month-on-month, with a market share of 2% and a cumulative market share of 2% from January to February.

From the perspective of car companies, BYD, Tesla, and Shangtong Wuling ranked in the top 3, and independent brands continued to exert their strength. BYD's main models grew steadily, with sales of 87,500 units in February, an increase of 754% year-on-year, a decrease of 6% month-on-month, accounting for 28%, and single-month sales ranked first; Tesla China sold 56,500 vehicles in February, an increase of 118% year-on-year, down 6% month-on-month, accounting for 18%, and ranked second in single-month sales; Shangtong Wuling sold 26,000 vehicles in February, an increase of 25% year-on-year, down 35% month-on-month, accounting for 8%, and single-month sales ranked third. By model, model Y (B-class) sold 32,400 units in February, up 600% year-on-year, down 3% month-on-month, accounting for 13.2%. Model 3 (Grade B) ranked second, with sales of 24,100 units in February, up 13% year-on-year and down 9% month-on-month, accounting for 9.8%; Hongguang MINI (A00 class) sold 22,100 units, up 10% year-on-year and down 40% month-on-month, accounting for 9.0%.

Risk warning: Electric vehicle sales are less than expected, policies are not as expected, and competition is intensifying.

This article comes from the WeChat public account of Soochow Securities Emerging Industry Exchange, author: Zeng Duohong team, Zhitong Finance Editor: Yang Wanlin