Soochow Securities: The power exchange model is developing at a high speed, and equipment suppliers are giving priority to benefiting

Zhitong Finance APP learned that Soochow Securities released a research report saying that the development of the power exchange model has gone through three stages of testing the water, exploring and venting, and it is expected to be rapidly increased after 2022. The bank expects to add more than 16,000 new substations in 2025, and the investment in new equipment will exceed 60 billion yuan. In the first year of the 2022 substation discharge, the replacement equipment manufacturers will benefit the most, and the core equipment of the substation will be charging and discharging equipment, testing equipment and automation equipment. Beneficiaries: Hanchuan Intelligent (688022.SH), GCL Energy (002015.SZ), Shandong Weida (002026.SZ), HKUST Intelligent (300222.SZ).

The main views of Soochow Securities are as follows:

Multiple favorable factors, power exchange ushered in the development of the outlet

With the gradual improvement of China's policies, many parties can benefit from the power exchange model, for consumers, the purchase cost of power exchange is low, the supply efficiency is high, especially for operational models, the advantages of power exchange are obvious; Substation operators can obtain a broader market and a better profit model; The centralized management of batteries by battery factories facilitates the cascade utilization and recycling of batteries, while obtaining more battery data and achieving positive research and development; OEMs launch a variety of sales solutions to open up the market according to the needs of consumers to replace electricity; For society, the power exchange mode can reduce the risk of uneven load on the grid and promote the social goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.

There is still resistance to the promotion of power exchange, and the development pain points are being broken one by one

The power exchange mode has obvious advantages in cost and efficiency, but its development also faces more pain points. First, the replacement power station is a heavy asset attribute, which requires more capital investment in the early stage, and the subsequent profit needs to improve the utilization rate (number of services), which is more suitable for commercial vehicles with a long driving mileage; Second, the degree of standardization of power exchange is low, and the battery models are different, but with the addition of leading battery factories such as the Ningde era, coupled with the introduction of national policies, it is expected to promote battery standardization; Third, the power exchange mode faces greater resistance from the main engine factory, and the main engine factory faces the risk of losing the core technology, but with the large-scale construction of the replacement power station, the demand for the replacement model by consumers of the operation model has increased significantly, and the main engine factory has been promoted to launch the power replacement model.

2022 is the first year of power station discharge, and power exchange equipment manufacturers will benefit the most

The core equipment of the substation is charging and discharging equipment, testing equipment and automation equipment. Taking the passenger car replacement power station as an example, its composition is the outer warehouse (container) as the main body, and the container is divided into battery warehouse, monitoring office warehouse, ramp, AGV, battery dismantling and transportation machinery, charging warehouse, etc.; Compared to passenger cars, commercial vehicle substations also include hoisting equipment. From the perspective of value, the unit investment in passenger car replacement equipment is about 2.6 million yuan, and the unit investment in commercial vehicle replacement equipment is about 4.2 million yuan. The technical and market threshold of power exchange equipment is not high, and the core competitiveness lies in reliability and accuracy, as well as the update iteration of equipment.

(1) Reliability: there are fewer "black technology" of power exchange equipment, the reliability of equipment is high, usually the utilization frequency of the replacement power station manipulator reaches 1400 times / day, the service life is at least half a year, how to achieve better technology, lower cost, better stability is the main goal pursued by equipment manufacturers.

(2) Accuracy: Accuracy is mainly reflected in the accuracy of the position of the exchange port, and the general accuracy requirements are to reach the millimeter level.

Relevant subject matter

(1) Hanchuan Intelligent (688022.SH): Extended from the supplier of automotive electronics production line to the supplier of power exchange equipment. The company's power exchange business is positioned as a manufacturer and equipment maintenance provider of power exchange equipment, and has accumulated a large number of technologies and processes in the production experience of automotive electronic automation equipment Know How, which can be directly converted into the research and development and production of power exchange equipment, and gradually establish the competitive barriers of the company's power exchange business. The technical advantages of the company's power exchange are mainly reflected in the identification accuracy, transmission stability and assembly speed.

(2) GCL Energy (002015.SZ): an advanced operator of clean energy, cutting into the operation service of the replacement power station. Clean energy business and power station exchange have strong synergy, clean energy business provides low-cost power for the replacement power station, the energy storage nature of the replacement power station can reduce repeated investment, and the cascade utilization of energy storage batteries or power batteries can realize the construction of low-cost energy storage power stations. The company implements the "electric port model", cooperates with car companies and travel platforms to launch power replacement models and corresponding power stations, and integrates power exchange resources as a third-party platform.

(3) Shandong Weida (002026.SZ): Its subsidiary Swopu has cooperated with WEIlai in depth to enter the power exchange equipment market. The company started with the drill chuck and its accessories, and gradually grew into a leading enterprise in the electric accessories industry, through external acquisitions and internal business expansion, the product categories are becoming more and more abundant, the company acquired Suzhou Demike in 2016 and began to carry out power exchange equipment research and development and technical reserves; In August 2017, it established a joint venture with NIO to establish Kunshan Swopu to lay out the substation business. (4) HKUST Intelligence (300222.SZ): Strategic cooperation with NIO to enter the field of power exchange equipment earlier.

Risk warning: The sales volume of new energy vehicles is not as good as market expectations, and the promotion of power replacement models is not as good as market expectations.

This article comes from the depth of the power exchange equipment industry of Soochow Securities, analyst: Zhou Ershuang, Zhitong Finance Editor: Wu Xiaowen