Soochow Securities: The penetration rate of new energy reached 22% in February, and exports continued to grow at a high rate

Zhitong Finance APP was informed that Soochow Securities released a research report that the automotive sector has been fully adjusted, firmly optimistic about the auto investment opportunities in 2022, it is recommended to over-match! 1) Chip Q2 is expected to continue to ease + policy support economy + rigid demand release, domestic passenger car traffic insurance data is expected to Q2 to achieve a continuous positive year-on-year, Q3 positive range continues to increase. 2) The demand brought about by the price increase of new energy vehicles has been fully responded to by the market, and Q2 is expected to resume orders and deliveries. 3) Each independent brand actively promotes the overseas strategy, and exports will continue to enter the high-growth channel. In the vehicle sector, ideal automobile (02015), Xiaopeng Automobile (09868), Great Wall Motor (601633.SH), BYD (002594.SZ), Geely Automobile (002594.SZ), Changan Automobile (000625.SZ), GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE Group (02238), SAIC Motor (600104.SH), Jianghuai Automobile (600418.SH), and Nio Automobile (NIO. US), Xiaokang shares (601127.SH). The parts section recommends Tuopu Group (601689.SH), Bethel (603596.SH), Desay SV (002920.SZ), Huayang Group (002906.SZ), Fuyao Glass (03606), China Auto Research Institute (601965.SH), Ecodi (600933.SH), Huayu Automobile (600741.SH), Xingyu (601799.SH), Jifeng (603997.SH), Joyson Electronics (600699.SH), Xusheng Shares (603305.SH).

Overall industry overview:

From January to February, the cumulative wholesale rate was +14% year-on-year, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 20% again. Caliber of the Association: In February, the production of narrow passenger cars reached 1.492 million units (+31.4% yo-y, -27.0% q-o-q) and wholesale sales reached 1.455 million units (+y+26.9%, m-32.6%); Among them, the production of new energy vehicles was 351,000 units (+208.1% year-on-year, -18.7% q-o-q), and wholesale sales reached 317,000 units (+189.1% yoY, -24.1% q-o-q). Passenger car exports (including vehicles and CKD) were 133,000 units, +69.0% year-on-year and +21.0% month-on-month, of which 45,000 units were exported from new energy vehicles, down from -13.0% q-o-q.

From January to February, the passenger car industry accumulated 3.612 million units, a cumulative year-on-year increase of +13.6%, the cumulative wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles was 734,000 units, a cumulative year-on-year increase of +161.9%, and the penetration rate of wholesale caliber new energy vehicles in the first two months of 2022 was 20.32%, which continued to exceed 20%. In terms of production in terms of segmentation, the overall decline of independent brands was larger than that of the previous month. Luxury brand production increased by 15% year-on-year and 27% month-on-month; Joint venture brand production increased by 31% year-on-year and decreased by 22% month-on-month; Self-owned brand production increased by 38% year-on-year and 31% month-on-month.

Looking forward to March 2022: the bank expects the overall output and wholesale of the association industry to be +34.1%/+37.5% respectively, corresponding to +9.8%/+8.8% year-on-year, respectively; The overall export volume is expected to be 170,000 units; New energy wholesale is expected to be 400,000 to 450,000 units.

The wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicles in February was 21.79%, +2.82pct month-on-month.

The downward trend in the fluctuation of the penetration rate in January is mainly due to the peak season for traditional car exchange before the Lunar New Year, and it returns to the upward state in February. In terms of segmentation, the wholesale sales of BEV pure electric models in February were 245,000 units, +161.7%/-27.6% year-on-year, and 583,000 units from January to February, +144.9% year-on-year; Wholesale sales of PHEV models were 72,000 units, +350.9%/-9.1% year-on-year, and 150,000 units from January to February, +258.4% year-on-year. The export market was +69% year-on-year, with sustained high growth. In February, the passenger car industry exported 133,000 units, +69% year-on-year, -21% month-on-month, of which new energy vehicle exports accounted for 34%, +4pct month-on-month, with an absolute value of 45,000 units, -13% month-on-month. Exports of self-owned brands reached 87,000 units in February, an increase of 44% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed down; The joint venture and luxury brands exported 46,000 vehicles, an increase of 153% year-on-year, and the year-on-year high growth was mainly due to Tesla's contribution to a large increase, with 33,300 units exported in February.

Car company level:

In February, the wholesale sales of most car companies were positive year-on-year. BYD/Tesla/Ideal/Xiaopeng/Aean/SAIC Autonomous performed better, with an increase of more than 100%; Great Wall/Chang'an performed poorly, negative year-on-year, mainly due to the higher base in the same period in 2021 and the continued impact of chip shortages this month. In February, the rest of the car companies except FAW Toyota declined month-on-month, mainly due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday. Changan Automobile/Xiaopeng Automobile/GAC Toyota had the largest decline in the previous month, -60.46%/-51.83%/-49.85% respectively, and BYD/SAIC Autonomous/Tesla had the smallest decline in the month-on-month, -4.55%/-4.67%/-5.56% respectively.

From January to February, the new energy market performed beautifully, the new power car companies were significantly positive year-on-year, and the independent brand BYD/GAC Aean performed better. From January to February cumulative wholesale year-on-year, Tesla / Ideal / Xiaopeng / BYD / Eian performed the best, +244%/+169%/+132%/+194%/+132% respectively; Independent brands Great Wall/Geely/Changan were negative year-on-year under the influence of chip shortages, with -19.95%/-3.72%/-16.12% respectively; Most of the joint venture brands have a cumulative wholesale trend diverged, with Changan Ford/SAIC-GM/FAW Toyota/FAW-Volkswagen/Beijing Benz slightly negative year-on-year, -12.56%/-10.01%/-4.09%/-7.14%/-11.86% respectively.

Risk warning: Downstream demand recovery is lower than expected, and epidemic control is lower than expected.

This article comes from the WeChat public account of the Huang Xioli team of Soochow Automobile, author: Huang Xioli, Zhitong Financial Editor: Yang Wanli