(Report Producer/Author: Orient Securities, Liu Yang)
First, the industry: lithium battery copper foil to the development of extreme thinning
1.1 Application areas: Copper foil accounts for about 13% and 8% of the quality and cost of lithium batteries
Copper foil acts as a carrier of the negative active material and a negative collector in the lithium battery structure. The typical lithium-ion battery structure mainly includes four parts: positive electrode, negative electrode, electrolyte and diaphragm. When the lithium battery is charged, the electric potential added to the two poles of the battery forces the embedded lithium compound at the positive electrode to release lithium ions, which are embedded in the graphite anode of the sheet structure through the diaphragm; When discharging, lithium ions are precipitated from the graphite of the sheet structure, and recombined with the embedded lithium compound at the positive electrode, and the lithium ions move to generate an electric current. Copper foil due to good conductivity, flexibility and moderate potential, resistance to winding and rolling, manufacturing technology mature, and the price is relatively low, in this process it acts as a graphite and other negative electrode active material carriers, while as a negative collector fluid, the battery active material generated by the current pooled together to produce a greater output current.
The quality and cost of lithium battery copper foil account for about 13% and 8% of the total quality and total cost of a typical lithium battery, respectively, and is one of the key materials in lithium batteries. According to Qiang Dai, Jarod C. Kelly et al., in life cycle analysis of Lithium-ion Batteries for Automotive Applications, the component mass of typical NCM111 lithium batteries is split, and copper foil accounts for 13% of the mass of typical lithium batteries, second only to positive and negative electrode materials and electrolytes; and according to the China Nonferrous Metal Processing Industry Association (CNFA) official website published in December 2019 "high-end market demand urgent lithium battery copper foil ultra-thinning process accelerates" and Yano Research data, copper foil is a lithium battery anode key material, its cost accounts for about 8% of the total cost of lithium batteries, its cost proportion is second only to lithium battery positive and negative electrode materials and separators.
1.2 Extreme Thin and Light: 4.5 micron copper foil increases the energy density of lithium batteries by 9%.
The anode of lithium batteries currently uses lithium battery copper foil with a thickness of less than 8μm. According to the different fields of application, electrolytic copper foil can be divided into electronic circuit copper foil applied to printed circuit boards, and lithium battery copper foil applied to lithium batteries; according to the thickness of copper foil, according to the standard can be divided into extremely thin copper foil (≤6μm), ultra-thin copper foil (6-12μm), thin copper foil (12-18μm), conventional copper foil (18-70μm) and thick copper foil (>70μm). Lithium battery copper foil currently uses copper foil products below 8 μm, while electronic circuit copper foil is generally thicker than lithium battery copper foil, mostly in 12-70 μm.
Compared with 8 micron lithium battery copper foil, the use of 6 micron and 4.5 micron lithium battery copper foil can increase the energy density of lithium battery by 5% and 9%. According to the lithium battery energy density calculation formula: mass energy density = battery capacity / battery quality, you can reduce the cell quality by constant battery capacity, or keep the battery quality unchanged and increase the battery capacity in two ways to improve the energy density. We used the "Electric Vehicle Observer" in June 2019 according to the number of vehicle factory certificates to calculate the energy density of the new energy vehicle power battery single body energy density TOP20 the average energy density is 228.8Wh/kg, if the current 8μm copper foil commonly used in new energy vehicle batteries is replaced by 6μm or 4.5μm copper foil, combined with the above 8um lithium electric copper foil consumption of 0.83kg/kwh, the copper foil required for unit energy can be reduced to 0.62kg/kwh (6μm). Copper foil), 0.47kg/kwh (4.5μm copper foil), further calculations can be obtained that the new energy density after the reduction of copper foil use is: 240.2Wh/kg (6μm copper foil), 249.6Wh/kg (4.5μm copper foil), compared with the use of 8μm copper foil lithium batteries, copper foil lightening makes the battery energy density significantly increased by 5% (6μm copper foil) and 9.1% (4.5μm copper foil), respectively.
Second, demand: the downstream boom continues, demand structure adjustment
2.1 Lithium power increase: Global lithium battery production or will maintain a high growth rate
In 2021, mainland lithium battery shipments increased by 114% year-on-year, and the proportion of power batteries in the first largest application area expanded to 72%. Since 2021, the domestic new energy vehicle market has shown an explosive growth trend, the growth of the digital product market is stable, and the lithium battery energy storage application is widely used. According to the statistics of Gaogong Lithium Battery (GGII), China's power battery shipments in 2021 will be 220GWh, an increase of 175% year-on-year, and the proportion of terminals will expand from 56% in 2020 to 72%; the shipments of energy storage batteries and small power batteries will be 37.0GWh and 10.0GWh, accounting for 12% and 3% respectively. In recent years, the growth rate of mainland 3C digital battery shipments has been relatively stable, and it is expected that the shipment of 3C digital batteries in mainland China will be about 39.5GWh in 2021, accounting for 13%. In summary, benefiting from the explosive growth of domestic new energy vehicle power batteries, China's lithium battery shipments in 2021 totaled 306.5GWh, an increase of 114% year-on-year.
GGII forecasts global lithium battery shipments CAGR of 37.8% in 2020-2025. Since 2020, driven by the rising growth rate of the global new energy vehicle market, especially the outbreak in the European market, the global lithium battery shipment volume has been 306GWh, an increase of 34.8% year-on-year. Among them, the annual shipment of power batteries is 186GWh, becoming the world's largest lithium battery consumer end, accounting for 60.8% of terminal consumption; digital lithium battery shipments are 77GWh, mainly driven by the rapid rise of power tools, non-stop electronic toll collection systems (ETC), mobile robots (AGV), wearable devices and other application terminals; energy storage lithium batteries and small power batteries have entered a period of rapid development, with annual shipments of 27GWh and 16GWh, respectively. Superimposed since 2021, the explosive growth of China's lithium battery demand, GGII predicts that the global lithium battery market will still maintain a medium-high speed growth trend in the next few years, and it is expected that by 2025, global lithium battery shipments are expected to reach 1,523GWh, and the CAGR in 2020-2025 will reach 37.8%.
According to the previous description, lithium battery application scenarios are divided into three application areas: power, 3C digital and energy storage. According to our "Lithium-Nickel Pioneer, Copper-Aluminum Successor – Nonferrous Industry 2022 Annual Strategy" released on December 3, 2021:(1) power batteries. Global new energy vehicle sales in 2020 were 3.15 million units, up 42.5% year-on-year. It is estimated that the installed power battery capacity in 2021-2023 will be 290, 475 and 655GWh respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 113.0%, 63.8% and 37.7%, respectively. (2) 3C digital. From 2021 to 2023, the installed capacity of consumer batteries is expected to be 90, 95 and 100GWh respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.9%, 5.6% and 5.3%. (3) Energy storage and others. It is estimated that the installed capacity of energy storage and other batteries in 2021-2023 will be 94, 139 and 187GWh respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 81%, 48% and 34%, respectively. In summary, we expect that the global demand for lithium batteries in 2021-2023 will reach 474.3, 709.5 and 941.5GWh respectively, with an average annual compound growth rate of 51%.
It is expected that the installed production ratio of lithium batteries in the next two years will remain low, and global lithium battery production will maintain a high growth rate. According to Wind data statistics, the mainland power battery 2019-2021 lithium battery installed capacity accounted for only about 71%, 78%, 70% of the output of the year, the gap between the output of the installed capacity is caused by the battery and the downstream industry inventory cycle, considering the cathode materials and battery manufacturers since the end of 2021 large-scale expansion plan, it is expected that the installed output of the installed capacity of the power battery will remain low compared with the next two years, assuming that the installed power battery output ratio of 2022-2023 is 74% and 76%. From the perspective of domestic and foreign separation, we expect that the domestic lithium battery production in 2021-2023 will be 351.6, 509.0, 601.6GWh, the year-on-year growth rate is 111.8%, 44.8%, 18.2%; it is expected that the overseas lithium battery production will be 326.0, 449.8, 637.2GWh, the year-on-year growth rate is 76.8%, 38.0%, 41.7%, respectively.
2.2 Structural adjustment: Extreme energy density demand drives up extremely thin lithium battery copper foil applications
The trend of power lithium battery development in the direction of high energy density has been determined, which puts forward high requirements for the extreme thinning of lithium battery copper foil. Ningde times, BYD and other power lithium battery leading enterprises 6μm lithium battery copper foil has been applied mature and quickly switched, other power lithium battery companies are also accelerating the application of 6μm lithium battery copper foil, ≤ 6μm extremely thin lithium battery copper foil products have gradually been applied in leading enterprises. According to GGII statistics, the penetration rate of ≤6μm lithium battery copper foil in 2020 was 50.4%, and in the first half of 2021, the penetration rate has reached 55.6%. In the battery manufacturers high energy density and cost reduction requirements, following the 6μm lithium battery copper foil, 4.5μm lithium battery copper foil is expected to become one of the mainstream products in the future, according to the high-tech lithium battery learned that the Ningde era in the first half of 2021 4.5μm lithium battery copper foil monthly consumption of about 600-700 tons, in the second half of 2021 Ningde era of 4.5μm lithium battery copper foil monthly demand or continue to increase.
The iteration of lithium battery copper foil products has accelerated, and the application prospect of 4.5μm lithium battery copper foil is broad. The technical requirements of downstream application enterprises are driven by the acceleration of upstream copper foil technology iteration. The early stage of lithium battery copper foil from 12μm to 8μm transition experienced a long cycle, and in just a few years, the mainland has achieved a wide range of 7-8μm copper foil to 6μm lithium battery copper foil upgrade, and has appeared 5μm, 4.5μm, 4μm and other thinner specifications of lithium battery copper foil. With the gradual maturity of the industrialization technology of 4.5μm copper foil and the gradual improvement of battery enterprise application technology, the application of 4.5μm lithium battery copper foil will gradually increase. The technical strength of mainland lithium battery copper foil is at the international leading level, while overseas battery manufacturers have not yet used 6μm lithium battery copper foil on a large scale. (Source: Future Think Tank)
2.3 Demand Forecast: Global lithium battery copper foil demand is expected to grow at a compound growth rate of 29% in 2021-2023
Since 2018, shipments of continental power battery ≤6μm lithium battery copper foil have grown rapidly. Before 2016, only a few manufacturers in China could produce 6μm lithium battery copper foil, accounting for 3.6% of the total weight of domestic lithium battery copper foil. After the catheter era achieved the switching of 6μm lithium battery copper foil in 2018, the demand for 6μm lithium battery copper foil for continental power batteries began to rise rapidly, and by 2020, the shipment of 6μm lithium battery copper foil in mainland China≤ will reach 63,000 tons. According to the above, the demand for copper foil for new energy vehicles ≤ 6μm extremely thin lithium batteries is the most urgent, and it can be assumed that ≤6μm lithium battery copper foil is all applied to the power batteries of new energy vehicles. In 2020, the lithium battery copper foil of continental power batteries totaled 74,000 tons, of which 85% of the copper foil of ≤ 6μm lithium batteries was accounted for.
The penetration rate of Continental power battery ≤ 6μm lithium battery copper foil has increased, and it is expected to be close to 100% in 2023. With more and more ≤ 6μm lithium battery copper foil applied to power batteries, the penetration rate of continental power battery ≤ 6μm lithium battery copper foil has gradually increased. Assuming that the unit consumption of 4.5um, 6um and 8um lithium battery copper foil is 0.47, 0.62 and 0.83 kg/kWh, respectively, the penetration rate of continental power battery ≤6μm lithium battery copper foil in 2020 has reached 88% (according to the proportion of lithium battery production), and it is expected to be close to 100% in 2023. Reviewing the permeability of China's power battery ≤6μm lithium battery copper foil since 2015, it can be simulated into an S-shaped growth curve. With the further enhancement of global demand for new energy vehicles and the acceleration of the iteration of lithium battery copper foil updates, the 4.5μm lithium battery copper foil of power batteries at home and abroad may undergo a similar penetration improvement process in the future.
In 2021-2023, the permeability of domestic power battery 4.5μm lithium battery copper foil will increase, and the penetration rate of 6μm will decrease; the permeability of overseas power battery 6μm and 4.5μm lithium battery copper foil will increase. The power battery ≤ 6μm lithium battery copper foil is divided into 6μm and 4.5μm parts. We expect that in 2021-2023, the penetration rate of domestic power battery 4.5μm lithium battery copper foil will increase from 12% to 47%, squeezing the space of 6μm lithium battery copper foil to a certain extent, and the penetration rate of domestic power battery 6μm lithium battery copper foil will be reduced from 80% to 52%. Overseas power battery lithium battery copper foil is gradually switching to 6μm in the process, and 4.5μm lithium battery copper foil will still be in its infancy, assuming that the iteration of overseas power battery lithium battery copper foil lags behind the domestic 2 years, then the permeability of overseas power battery 6μm lithium copper foil will increase from 23% to 53%, while the penetration rate of 4.5μm will increase from 0% to 12%.
Combining the terminal demand of lithium batteries, the overall penetration rate of domestic and overseas lithium battery copper foil will also show the above changes. In addition to power batteries, most of the world's traditional digital, energy storage, small power, power tools are still mainly used in 8μm and above lithium battery copper foil. Comprehensive lithium battery terminal demand as a whole: we expect that in 2021-2023, the overall penetration rate of 4.5μm lithium battery copper foil will increase from 9% to 35%, and to a certain extent, the space of 6μm lithium battery copper foil will be squeezed, and the overall penetration rate of 6μm lithium battery copper foil will be reduced from 57% to 39%; the overall penetration rate of overseas 6μm lithium copper foil is expected to increase from 11% to 34%, while the overall penetration rate of 4.5μm will increase from 0% to 8%. The remaining domestic and overseas market shares are 8μm lithium battery copper foil.
According to the above assumptions, it is expected that the global demand for lithium battery copper foil will reach 50.14, 67.82 and 839,600 tons in 2021-2023, respectively, with an annual compound growth rate of 29%.
Third, supply: domestic lithium battery copper foil production capacity expansion, the leading effect intensified
3.1 Equipment domestic production: promote the expansion of industry capacity
Before 2016, the core components of domestic titanium cathode rollers and other electrolytic copper foil equipment relied heavily on imports, and the tight supply of equipment extended the expansion cycle. Electrolytic production of copper foil is a more common copper foil production technology developed in recent decades, titanium cathode roller is the core component of electrolytic copper foil equipment. Due to technical reasons, for many years the domestic cathode roller manufacturing has been stuck within 2000mm diameter, 2700mm diameter titanium cathode roller technology and market has long been monopolized by foreign enterprises. Before 2016, the large diameter cathode rollers used by domestic copper foil enterprises all relied on imports. According to the copper crown copper foil prospectus, more than 70% of the world's cathode rollers come from Japan's Shinnichi Steel, Sanfune and other enterprises, which need to be scheduled in advance, and the tight supply of equipment has led to an increase in the expansion cycle of copper foil.
The cathode roller realizes domestic independent manufacturing, and the high quality and low price help the domestic lithium battery copper foil production capacity expansion. In May 2016, Xi'an Aerospace Power Machinery Co., Ltd. (Aerospace Fourth Academy 7414 Factory) independently manufactured the first 2700mm cathode roller in China and put it into use, and the quality of the copper foil it produced reached the level of high-grade lithium battery foil, which can completely replace imports. Shanghai Hongtian has realized the localization of lithium battery copper foil equipment through the introduction of Japanese core technology and independent research and development. Due to the technology and product performance of domestic cathode rollers in recent years has been greatly improved, the localization rate is rapidly increasing, most of the leading enterprises of lithium battery copper foil have begun to use domestic equipment, according to GGII reports Shanghai Hongtian in the domestic market share of more than 50%. Moreover, the low price of domestic equipment and the convenience of after-sales maintenance play a role in the current new round of lithium battery copper foil production capacity expansion.
3.2 Clear barriers: the release of effective production capacity is slow
High-end copper foil production capacity Know-How is demanding and forms an important barrier to competition. Copper foil production has extremely high technical requirements for the process, Know-How (technical know-how) requires the accumulation of long-term experience, and high-end copper foil production capacity is an important competitive wall for enterprises in the industry. At present, the lithium battery copper foil mainly adopts the roller cathode and insoluble anode to produce electrolytic copper foil by continuous method, and the production process is three: the front section copper melting system, the middle section foil system, the rear section surface treatment and product slitting. The core link of its production lies in the raw foil in the middle section, and there are significant technical barriers such as the grinding roller process, additive selection, equipment debugging and parameter setting in the foil generation process.
The yield rate of new high-end copper foil production lines is low, or it will drag down the release of effective production capacity. Taking the capacity construction and production schedule of the fundraising project disclosed in the prospectus of Hubei Zhongyi Technology as an example, the production capacity construction time is as long as 21 months, and it takes 15 months from production to capacity climb to 100%. Hubei Zhongyi Technology has built and put into operation extremely thin lithium battery copper foil production lines in 2018 and 2019 respectively, and the yield rate of lithium battery copper foil products produced during the trial production period of the new production line is low, resulting in higher product production costs. At the same time, the quality of products during the trial production of the new production line has also been affected, and the production and sales rate of lithium battery copper foil products in Hubei Zhongyi Technology in 2018-2019 has also decreased by a certain extent. Therefore, there is still great uncertainty about whether the high-end copper foil production capacity can be released quickly and effectively.
Downstream certification barriers are high, and the sales of products of enterprises with immature processes are affected. In order to ensure the stability and continuity of production, downstream lithium battery manufacturers usually adopt the supplier certification mode when introducing new suppliers, and it usually takes about 6-12 months to obtain supplier certification, and a small batch supply stage needs to be arranged for a certain period of time. Taking 2020 as an example, the total production capacity of lithium battery copper foil in the mainland is 229,000 tons, the market output is 153,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 67%, but the market shipment is only 125,000 tons, and the production and marketing rate is 81.5%, mainly due to the poor performance of some lithium battery copper foil new products, which cannot enter the core supplier system of downstream leading lithium battery production enterprises, and the production orders obtained are fewer, and the new production capacity and output cannot be effectively digested.
3.3 Supply forecast: It is expected that the compound growth rate of global lithium battery copper foil supply will reach 28% in 2021-2023
At the end of 2021, the total global lithium battery copper foil production capacity will be about 510,000 tons, and it is expected that the total annual compound growth rate of global lithium battery copper foil production capacity will reach 28% from 2021 to 2023. According to the relevant data of the company's official website, each company's announcement, CCFA, China Nonferrous Metals Industry Processing Association, etc., we have counted the global lithium battery copper foil by country/region and enterprise lithium battery copper foil in 2021-2023. According to our statistics, by the end of 2021, the total global lithium battery copper foil production capacity is expected to be about 513,300 tons / year, 2022 and 2023, the total global lithium battery copper foil production capacity will increase to 69.66 and 894,100 tons / year, respectively, 2021-2023 Global lithium battery copper foil total annual compound growth rate of about 28%.
At the end of 2021, the total capacity of lithium battery copper foil in Chinese mainland and South Korea accounted for 90%, and the new capacity of lithium battery copper foil in 2022-2023 is mainly from these two regions. By the end of 2021, the production capacity of lithium battery copper foil in Chinese mainland, South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong/Taiwan will account for 75%, 15%, 6% and 4% respectively, and Chinese mainland and South Korea are the main production areas of lithium battery copper foil.
From the perspective of lithium battery copper foil production capacity increase, the main increase in 2022-2023 also comes from Chinese mainland and South Korea, and the lithium battery copper foil production capacity increase in 2022 is 183,400 tons, of which Chinese mainland accounts for 88%; the lithium battery copper foil production capacity increase in 2023 is 197,500 tons, all from Chinese mainland.
By the end of 2021, the lithium battery copper foil production capacity of domestic Longdian Huaxin, Nord Shares, Telford Technology, Jiayuan Technology and South Korea's Rijin ranks among the top in the world. From a global perspective, by the end of 2021, Longdian Huaxin, NORD shares and South Korea's ILJIN production capacity in the mainland region ranked in the top three, accounting for a total of 27%; Defu Technology and Jiayuan Technology in the mainland region ranked fourth and fifth respectively, accounting for 11% of the total. From the domestic point of view, as of the end of 2021, the production capacity of Longdian Huaxin, Nord shares and Defu Technology will account for more than 9%, which is the first echelon; Jiayuan Technology, Tongguan copper foil, Yuxiang copper foil, and Jiangtong Yes copper foil will account for more than 4%, which is the second echelon.
From 2021 to 2023, the competition for the expansion of global lithium battery copper foil production capacity is fierce, and nord shares, Telford Technology and Jiayuan Technology in the mainland may be the largest variables. We observed the changing trend of global lithium battery production capacity sub-enterprises from 2021 to the end of 2023. It can be seen that the mainland's NORD shares, Telford Technology and Jiayuan Technology may be the largest variables. By the end of 2021, NORD co., Ltd.'s lithium battery copper foil production capacity will be 43,000 tons/year, and by the end of 2023, it will reach 73,000 tons/year. By the end of 2021, Telford Technology's lithium battery copper foil production capacity will be 36,000 tons/year, and by the end of 2023, it will reach 110,000 tons/year. Jiayuan Technology's lithium battery copper foil production capacity will increase from 21,000 tons/year at the end of 2021 to 87,000 tons/year. Overseas, South Korea's ILJIN lithium battery copper foil production capacity will be expanded from 40,000 tons/year at the end of 2021 to 52,000 tons/year in 2023. In addition, South Korea's KCFT and domestic Warwick copper foil, Hailiang shares, etc. are also expanding production capacity.
From 2021 to 2023, the industry concentration of global and domestic lithium battery copper foil will increase first and then decrease, and the overall competitive landscape will be optimized. According to the above production capacity calculation, domestic lithium battery copper foil leading enterprises such as Nord Shares, Telford Technology, and Jiayuan Technology are expected to have more production capacity investment in 2022, so the industry concentration has increased significantly. By 2023, it is expected that a large number of production capacity of non-head lithium battery copper foil enterprises will be put into production one after another, and the concentration of industry will be diluted to a certain extent. Overall, it is expected that in 2021-2023, the global lithium battery copper foil industry CR4 will increase from 34% to about 60%, CR8 will increase from 50% to about 60%, the domestic market industry CR4 will increase from 40% to about 46%, and CR8 will increase from 60% to about 69%. With the expansion of the total supply of lithium battery copper foil in the world, the overall competitive pattern of global and domestic lithium battery copper foil in 2021-2023 may be optimized.
Fourth, the balance of supply and demand: the improvement of supply and demand of 4.5μm copper foil is particularly prominent
Below, we will comprehensively analyze and forecast the demand and supply of lithium battery copper foil industry, and analyze the annual marginal changes in the global lithium battery copper foil market, the ≥6μm lithium battery copper foil market, and the 4.5μm lithium battery copper foil market from 2021 to 2023. That is, we compare the matching of annual new supply and new demand, and define the ratio of the difference between the difference and the annual total demand as the marginal change in market supply and demand in the current year. If the ratio is negative, it means that the supply and demand pattern of the lithium battery copper foil market in that year is better than that of the previous year; if the ratio is positive, it means that the supply and demand pattern of the current year is worse than that of the previous year.
4.1 Overall: The overall supply of lithium battery copper foil continued to improve slightly under the expansion of production capacity
According to the previous analysis, it is estimated that the total global demand for lithium battery copper foil in 2021-2023 will be 50.1, 67.8 and 840,000 tons/year, respectively, and the annual demand for new lithium battery copper foil will be 23.0, 17.7 and 161,000 tons/year, respectively. According to the above statistics, it is expected that the new effective capacity of global lithium battery copper foil in 2021-2023 will be 8.6, 12.0 and 190,000 tons /year, respectively. We believe that the yield of lithium battery copper foil produced by the new production line is relatively low, so the capacity utilization rate of the new capacity under the neutral assumption is 70%, and it is expected that the global oversupply of new lithium battery copper foil in 2021-2023 will be -34.0%, -13.7% and -3.3%, respectively. It can be seen that the overall supply pattern of the industry will improve slightly in 2021-2023.
4.2 Structure: The supply and demand pattern of 4.5 micron copper foil is better than the whole
In the next two years, the production of 4.5μm extremely thin copper foil may mainly come from 12 copper foil manufacturers. Since the lithium battery copper foil is in the process of gradually converting to 4.5μm, we need to further analyze and predict the supply and demand pattern of the 4.5μm lithium battery copper foil. Combined with the foregoing, at present, 12 copper foil manufacturers such as Jiayuan Technology and NORD have mastered the production technology of 4.5μm extremely thin copper foil, and leading enterprises have the ability to supply in batches. The future new production of these copper foil manufacturers focuses on the ≤6μm extremely thin lithium battery copper foil, and the new projects basically plan the production capacity of 4.5μm extremely thin copper foil, and the new production line has the ability to convert 6μm to 4.5μm copper foil. It is estimated that from 2022 to 2023, the total production capacity of these 12 copper foil manufacturers ≤6μm extremely thin lithium battery copper foil will reach 272,300 tons / year and 421,800 tons / year, an increase of 117,800 tons / year and 149,500 tons / year respectively, accounting for 73% and 76% of the increase in global lithium battery copper foil production capacity in that year. We will start with the new capacity of these 12 copper foil manufacturers and predict the production of 4.5μm lithium battery copper foil in the next two years.
In the case of 4.5μm lithium battery copper foil accounting for 30%-50% of the new production capacity of 12 manufacturers, the supply and demand pattern of 4.5μm lithium battery copper foil in 2022-2023 continued to improve. Jiayuan Technology has supplied 4.5μm copper foil products to the domestic head lithium battery manufacturers, and the long-term goal in the future is to set the production capacity of 4.5μm lithium battery copper foil to be higher than 50%. Considering that Jiayuan Technology's shipments of 4.5μm copper foil are industry-leading, it is expected that the proportion of 4.5μm lithium battery copper foil in the new capacity of 12 manufacturers will not exceed 50%. Under the neutral assumption of 70% capacity utilization, if the proportion of 4.5μm lithium battery copper foil in the new capacity of 12 manufacturers is 30%-50%, the supply and demand gap of 4.5μm copper foil is expected to be -46.6% to -67.9% in 2022, and the supply and demand gap of 4.5μm copper foil is expected to be -33.3% to -60.0% in 2023, and the supply and demand pattern of 4.5μm copper foil will continue to improve in the next two years.
The supply and demand pattern of 4.5 micron lithium battery copper foil is significantly better than that of the overall lithium battery copper foil market. Also under the assumption of 70% capacity utilization rate, when 4.5μm copper foil accounts for 50% of the new capacity of 12 manufacturers, it is expected that the gap between supply and demand in the global new 4.5 micron lithium battery copper foil market in 2022-2023 is -46.6% and -33.3%, respectively. It shows that from 2021 to 2023, with the increase in the penetration rate of 4.5 micron lithium battery copper foil in the world, the gap between supply and demand has expanded significantly, and the supply and demand pattern of 4.5 micron lithium battery copper foil is significantly better than the overall market of lithium battery copper foil. (Source: Future Think Tank)
V. Investment analysis: Industry leaders are expected to preferentially benefit from the improvement of supply and demand of 4.5 micron lithium battery copper foil
In summary, from the total point of view, it is expected that the average annual compound growth rate of global lithium battery copper foil demand in 2021-2023 will reach 29%, and it is expected that the average annual compound growth rate of global lithium battery copper foil production capacity will be 28%, and the supply and demand pattern of lithium battery copper foil industry will be stable in the medium and long term. From the perspective of demand structure, assuming that the penetration rate of 4.5μm lithium battery copper foil will continue to increase, it is expected that the supply and demand pattern of 4.5μm lithium battery copper foil in 2021-2023 will be significantly better than that of the industry as a whole. Therefore, with the rapid development of the electric vehicle and energy storage industry and the increase in the demand for electric vehicle range, the high-performance extremely thin copper foil industry represented by 4.5μm may have medium- and long-term growth. Due to the high technical barriers and certification barriers to the production of extremely thin lithium battery copper foil, lithium battery copper foil leading enterprises are more likely to release production capacity, achieve sales, or will give priority to occupying the market of 4.5μm lithium battery copper foil.
Jiayuan Technology's existing lithium battery copper foil production capacity of 21,000 tons / year, is currently one of the few domestic manufacturers that can mass-produce 6μm high-performance extremely thin lithium battery copper foil, batch supply of 4.5μm extremely thin copper foil, the future plan to gradually increase the production capacity to 87,000 tons / year. Jiayuan Technology plans to gradually set the production capacity of 6μm lithium battery copper foil products to less than 50% in the future, and the production capacity of less than 6μm extremely thin copper foil (mainly 4.5μm) is higher than 50%.
NORD is a well-known leading supplier of new energy lithium battery materials in China, with a total production capacity of 43,000 tons/year. With years of technical accumulation, production equipment is more advanced, 6μm copper foil products continue to increase, but also began to mass production and delivery of 4.5μm, 4μm extremely thin copper foil. The production capacity of 27,000 tons/year raised at the end of 2021 is positioned to produce high-end extremely thin lithium battery copper foil products, which will further expand the production capacity of high-performance extremely thin lithium battery copper foil products.
(This article is for informational purposes only and does not represent any of our investment advice.) For usage information, see the original report. ）
Featured report source: [Future Think Tank].