Driving a new energy vehicle in winter, what is the biggest problem? It should be a shrinking mileage. Because new energy vehicles are heated by electric heating, rather than the waste heat heating of the engine such as fuel vehicles, therefore, the air conditioning of electric vehicles in winter has high energy consumption and short endurance, which has become a major annoyance for electric vehicle owners in the north. Therefore, the thermal management system of new energy vehicles is particularly important. Now analyzing a Tesla industrial chain company that is undervalued by the market, Yinlun Co., Ltd. (002126) company is mainly engaged in thermal management, and compared with fuel vehicles, the thermal management value of new energy vehicles has doubled. As the leader of thermal management, Yinlun shares should have been popular, but in 21 years, they were waterloo, the annual stock price fell by 8.25%, and now there is only a market value of 10 billion, why is this? What will happen to the company in 22 years?
Silver Wheel shares daily chart
First, the basic situation of the company
The company is mainly engaged in a variety of heat management and exhaust gas aftertreatment products, heat exchanger production and sales for more than ten consecutive years in the forefront of the domestic industry, is the national manufacturing single champion. The company has more than 40 wholly-owned and controlled subsidiaries worldwide. The company provides products for giants such as Huawei, Tesla, and CATL. Products are widely used in new energy, passenger cars, commercial vehicles, construction machinery, industrial heat exchange and other fields. In the third quarter of 2021, the company's revenue increased by 29%, net profit was 216 million, down 22%, and the current PE was 36 times, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.46.
Yinlun shares product classification
Yinlun Co., Ltd. corporate vision
Second, the company's core competitiveness
(1) Leading technology. In June 2021, the company has more than 700 patents, 81 invention patents, 5 international patents, and 35 standards. After more than ten years of production and R&D accumulation, a number of international first-class and domestic leading core technologies have been formed, so that the company's products have the advantages of leading technology, low cost and high quality compared with similar products
(2) Product structure advantages. The company's 60 years of accumulation, complete product supporting types, from engines, batteries, motors, electronic controls to body heat management, exhaust gas treatment, the company can provide customers with a full range of products worth hundreds of yuan to thousands of yuan, bicycle supporting value growth space is huge. Especially in the field of thermal management of new energy vehicles, the company has evolved from a parts supplier to a system integrator, and the system integration capability has continued to improve.
(3) Global strategic layout, to provide customers with localization services. Through vertical expansion, mergers and acquisitions of foreign enterprises, the company has built a production and technical service platform in Europe and North America to better serve local customers.
Yinlun shares overseas layout roadmap
Third, the company's development space
The value of the company is the discount of future cash flow, and the reason why some of the good news can drive the stock price up is that the market expects that the news will bring performance increments to the company. The company's future development space and operation is one of the important bases for judging whether the company has value investment, so how will the development of yinlun shares that increase income and do not increase profits in the next few years?
1. The space for the development of the industry in which the company is located
(1) The new energy automobile industry is still expected to maintain high growth. In 2020, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is 1.367 million units, reaching 3.52 million units in 2021, according to the forecast of the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in China in 22 years are expected to exceed 6 million, of which the cumulative sales of new energy passenger vehicles will exceed 5.5 million, the company provides thermal management for new energy vehicles, and is expected to fully benefit from the rapid development of new energy vehicles. According to the forecast of Orient Securities in the third quarter of 2021, it is expected that from 2021 to 2025, China's new energy passenger car thermal management market space will increase from 14.86 billion yuan to 42.5 billion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of 30.1%, and the global new energy passenger car thermal management market space will increase from 30.78 billion yuan to 103.5 billion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of 35.4%. In 2020, the company's new energy vehicle thermal management revenue is 290 million yuan, and it is expected to exceed 1 billion yuan in 22 years.
21 years of new energy vehicle sales
(2) The thermal management of new energy vehicles increases the value of bicycles compared with traditional vehicles. Since the power supply methods of the two are different compared with new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles, the air conditioning components are different, the cockpit thermal management cooling system uses an electric compressor to replace the traditional compressor, and the heating is changed from using the waste heat of the engine to PTC (or heat pump) heating. The thermal management system of new energy vehicles is more complex and high-end, and the number of components has increased. Total cost increases. It is estimated that the value of pure electric passenger car thermal management bicycles can reach 6700 yuan, which is about 3500 yuan higher than traditional fuel vehicles. The company has system integration capabilities in thermal management, but also provides other components, with the company's technology accumulation, the company and Tesla, Geely, BYD, domestic benchmark car manufacturing forces and other car companies to form a cooperation, in the new energy vehicle replacement wave to benefit.
The world's main supplier of thermal management for new energy vehicles
Yinlun new energy vehicle product series
2. The company's performance increment space
(1) The company increases emerging fields such as industrial heat exchange, power energy storage and heat exchange, and increases the breadth of product applications. The company is actively expanding the industrial heat transfer business including thermal management of power transmission and transformation equipment, geothermal power generation thermal management, energy storage heat management, etc. The company has provided geothermal power generation facilities for some customers, energy storage facilities related thermal management products, UHV transmission and transformation equipment thermal management is under development, and the industrial heat exchange business is one of the key areas of the company's secondary entrepreneurship. By 2030, the scale of new energy storage will be further increased to about 150 million kilowatts, the energy storage market space will reach more than 1.2 trillion yuan, and the energy storage market space is vast.
Yinlun Co., Ltd. industrial \ civil product series
(2) In 21 years, the company issued convertible bonds to increase investment in the field of new energy vehicles. In 2017, the investment in the additional investment projects was mainly invested in passenger vehicle thermal management and new energy and reprocessing projects, which were completed in 2021 and 2022 respectively. The European Poland new energy plant is expected to be put into operation this year; convertible bonds will be issued in 21 years, mainly for heat pump air conditioning projects and the construction of new energy commercial vehicle production lines. The company's production capacity expansion, seize the new energy incremental market.
Silver Wheel shares convertible bond fundraising project
Fourth, comprehensive reviews and risk tips
21 years of the company's grand strategy is market expansion, superimposed raw material prices rise, as well as freight prices soared, the company's gross profit margin fell sharply, there is no increase in revenue, from the analysis of the research situation, the company will make fine-tuning of the development strategy in 22 years, will take measures to change internal management, improve the assessment mechanism with profit improvement as the guide, and achieve double improvement in revenue and performance. The company's gross profit margin in 21 years will be a phased low, and after the first quarter of 21 years, the company's gross profit margin is expected to rebound. Based on the rapid development of the new energy business, the company's revenue targets for 22 and 23 years are 8.6-9 billion and 10-10.8 billion, respectively, and the revenue in 23 years is expected to exceed 10 billion.
Risk warning: The industry boom is declining, raw material prices continue to rise, and new projects and new production capacity are less than expected.
Global territory of Silver Wheel shares