New energy vehicles are accelerating the replacement of traditional fuel vehicles, and are transforming from mobile tools to super mobile intelligent terminals, which is a once-in-a-century change that continues to change the fate of many enterprises.
Known as the "King of Ning", although the Ningde era accounts for half of the domestic power battery market, it also faces many challenges. With the rapid development of power battery technology and electric vehicle companies have been looking for new suppliers, the Ningde era has not only encountered the encirclement and suppression of Chinese and foreign power battery competitors, but also the cooperative relationship with many car companies is not solid, and occasionally "brothers are on the wall". Not long ago, some media reported that the collective "escape" of core customers has pried open a crack in the territory of the trillion-dollar battery empire in the Ningde era.
In the face of the rapidly changing market, CATL is defending the ring through technology and business model innovation, and will hold the EVOGO (Evolution Go) power exchange brand conference on January 18, 2020 to accelerate the development of the power exchange business, and want to enter the heart of more electric vehicles in the field of power batteries, which is known as the "heart" of new energy vehicles.
In addition, it is reported that the Ningde era may adopt anode-free technology in the second generation of sodium-ion batteries and future lithium-ion batteries.
At the beginning of the new year, not only the Ningde era, but also other power battery companies are also in action. On January 13, BYD expanded its lithium mining footprint to Chile for the first time. BYD's Chile branch submitted a $61 million offer to win a quota of 80,000 tons of lithium metal production. This time, the Chilean Ministry of Mines has five quotas totaling 400,000 tons of lithium metal production for public tenders, and BYD and the local Northern Mining Service and Operation Company (Serviciosy Mineras del Norte) have won the bids, which account for 1.8% of Chile's known lithium reserves.
In order to occupy a more favorable position, power battery manufacturers are fighting for more orders from downstream automakers while competing for upstream lithium resources. Recently, a number of industrial chain manufacturers such as Ningde Times, BYD, LG New Energy, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Huayou Cobalt, and Yiwei Lithium Energy have bought or mined. Among them, after acquiring 35.29% of the equity of Xinghua Lithium Salt at a transaction price of 144 million yuan, Yiwei Lithium Energy signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Lanxiao Technology to participate in the development and utilization of lithium resources in Tibet Jieze Chaka Salt Lake.
Since the invention of the automobile, every important breakthrough in automotive technology is the result of close cooperation between the whole vehicle and parts enterprises, and also directly affects the development and transformation of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of the automobile. At present, as new energy vehicles enter the fast lane, the field of power batteries is also accelerating.
More than 50% of the "heart" of new energy vehicles in China comes from the Ningde era
On July 11, 2016, Xiang Yanhuo, then technical director of Ningde Times, flew from Fuzhou to Guangzhou on the MF8325 night flight of Xiamen Airlines, and negotiated a battery cooperation project with GAC the next day. At that time, BYD was the world's top new energy vehicle sales champion and domestic lithium battery boss, and only 5 years after the establishment of the Ningde era wanted to strike later, its technical director, marketing director and other core personnel frequently ran to OEMs across the country to find ways to expand the circle of friends.
In 2017, GAC Trumpchi's first pure electric vehicle, the GE3, was launched, and in the same year, GAC New Energy (now known as "GAC Aean") was officially established. With the orders of old customers such as BMW and new customers such as GAC, CATL not only surpassed BYD in this year with 12GWh power battery sales, but also defeated giants such as Panasonic and sat on the throne of the global power battery champion, and has been the first in the world for five consecutive years. In just a few years, Xiang Yanhuo, who was promoted to the president of the passenger car solution department of the Ningde era, no longer has to look around for orders as in the early days, and many businesses will take the initiative to send them to the door.
In mid-2021, there were reports that He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng Automobile, squatted in the Ningde era for a week in order to successfully get the power battery. Although He Xiaopeng said in an exclusive interview with First Finance at the time that this report was untrue, this rumor also reflected the current situation of short supply of power batteries to a certain extent.
China's new energy vehicles exceeded expectations last year, with production and sales reaching 3.545 million units and 3.521 million units respectively, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year. When a number of new car-making enterprises cheered for the new sales of electric vehicles, they knew that this year in order to solve the shortage of chips and power batteries, unremitting efforts were still unable to get rid of the dilemma of loss. In contrast, the days of power battery suppliers such as the Ningde era are much more moist.
China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance recently released data showing that in 2021, the cumulative output of China's power batteries was 219.7GWh, an increase of 163.4% year-on-year; sales were 186.0GWh, an increase of 182.3%; and the loading volume was 154.5GWh, an increase of 142.8% year-on-year. Among them, as a supplier of Tesla and other car companies, CATL era ranked first in the domestic power battery company with an installed volume of 80.51 GWh, accounting for 52.1%, ranking second and third by BYD and Zhongxin Airlines (formerly known as "AVIC Lithium Battery"), with an installed volume of 25.06 GWh and 9.05 GWh, respectively, and the market accounted for 16.2% and 5.9% respectively.
Although it was somewhat affected by the rise in raw material prices, CATL still made a lot of money, and its revenue in the first three quarters of last year was 73.362 billion yuan, an increase of 132.73% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to the shareholders of listed companies was 7.75 billion yuan, an increase of 130.9% year-on-year. Unlike many parts suppliers, head power battery companies have a great say in the industrial chain and can pass on the rising cost of raw material prices to downstream automakers.
Compared with December 2020, lithium battery raw materials in 2021 continue to rise, the price of cathode material LiCoO2 has increased by more than 200%, the price of electrolyte has increased by more than 150%, and the supply of anode materials has continued to be tight, resulting in a significant increase in comprehensive costs.
Due to the rise in raw material prices and subsidies, electric vehicle companies have also begun to increase prices, following the Tesla electric car price increase of 10,000 to 21,000 yuan, Xiaopeng Automobile also announced on January 11 this year that the price of all models increased by thousands of yuan. Wu Hui, general manager of the research department of yiwei economic research institute and president of China Battery Industry Research Institute, believes that Xiaopeng Automobile's new car rose by about 5,000 yuan, which is estimated to be the increase in the supply of batteries in the Ningde era.
New energy vehicles are becoming more and more "flowery"
With the arrival of orders, the Ningde era has become more and more vocal in the industry, and it is considered to gradually expose some "overbearing" behavior.
According to media reports, CATL implemented a "margin" strategy, requiring car companies to make expectations for battery demand in the next 5 to 10 years, and pay a deposit in advance to CATL for "production line construction, manpower expansion, material reserves, etc." In addition, the electric vehicle equipped with the Ningde era high-nickel product NCM811 battery has had a number of fire incidents, once the electric vehicle because of the battery fire, the car company and the supplier will be because of how to blame the fierce game, and the Ningde era "do not recognize, do not lose money", in the end most of the car companies are responsible. The various "overbearing" behaviors of "Ning Wang" triggered a collective "escape" of core customers. GAC was the first to try to escape.
According to relevant reports, the relationship between GAC and the Ningde era has taken a sharp turn for the worse. Since the second half of 2020, the new models declared by GAC Aean are no longer equipped with CATL batteries, and the suppliers have been replaced by Zhongxin Aviation and Fu Neng Technology. "Disturb the audiovisuals!" Gu Huinan, general manager of GAC Aean, recently responded to this report when interviewed by the first financial reporter. "At present, NINGDE Times and China New China Airlines both provide power batteries to GAC Aean, and the supply is dynamic, and the proportion of battery supply in these two companies is different every month." Gu Huinan said that as for which one has a higher proportion, this is a sensitive topic and it is not convenient to disclose.
The reporter learned that the magazine battery launched by GAC Aean last year was jointly developed with China New Aviation, and the magazine battery accounted for an increasing proportion of GAC Aian's models.
In order to ensure the supply of batteries and reduce market risks, more and more electric vehicle companies no longer put eggs in one basket, from a battery supplier to two, three or even more. As the global champion of new energy vehicles, Tesla is one of the representatives of "Huaxin", and now has three battery suppliers of Panasonic, LG New Energy and Ningde Times, and rumors that it will turn BYD into the fourth battery supplier are frequently rumored. Toyota will begin to launch a new platform bZ series pure electric vehicle models this year, and battery orders in China will be handed over to NINGDE Times and BYD. The battery suppliers of multinational car giants such as Volkswagen and BMW have also found battery suppliers other than the Ningde era, Volkswagen has become the first shareholder of Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and BMW has allied with Ewell Lithium Energy. While new car-making forces such as Xiaopeng Automobile and Weilai are purchasing batteries from the Ningde era, they are also contacting other battery suppliers.
At present, although the installed power battery volume of the Ningde era is still far ahead, power battery manufacturers such as BYD are accelerating to catch up. In order to support future market expansion plans, BYD even went to chile and other overseas markets to mine lithium mines. Last year, BYD due to the surge in sales of its own new energy vehicles, most of its blade batteries are self-supplied, and with the production capacity of power batteries this year is expected to increase to 100 GWh, or will accelerate the pace of battery supply. Power batteries such as China Xinhang, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, which is invested by GAC Capital, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, which increased the capital of Volkswagen, and Hive Energy under the Great Wall, have also challenged the Ningde era, with Zhongxin Airlines and Guoxuan Hi-Tech planning to reach 500 GWh and 300GWh respectively in 2025, and Hive Energy will increase its production capacity to 600 GWh in 2025, and even expected to surpass the production capacity of the Ningde era. According to the data disclosed by Shanxi Securities, CATL plans to reach a production capacity of 592GWh by 2025.
Not only in the face of a number of power battery manufacturers to encircle and suppress, the Ningde era also has to face the "change of heart" of the main engine factory. Tesla, Volkswagen, GAC and other car companies in addition to looking for new outsourced battery suppliers, but also have their own battery factories, accelerate the research and development of batteries and other technologies and grasp more voice in core components. GAC Aeon's battery production line in its own factory area strives to be completed by the end of this year, and will find another place to build a new battery factory in the future, and it is planned that by 2025, the batteries of EIAN electric vehicles will be partially self-sufficient.
Compared with production capacity, NINGDE era faces greater challenges at the technical level. "Compared with other battery companies, CATL mainly occupies the advantage of scale, but there is no irreplaceable technology, which is one of the reasons why we hand over part of the battery order to other power battery companies." The relevant person in charge of a new energy vehicle company told the first financial reporter.
At present, the power battery technology route is increasingly diversified, and various technologies are emerging in an endless stream. Although Chinese companies are on a par with Japanese and Korean companies in terms of ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate batteries, or even better in some aspects, there is still a gap between them and Japanese and Korean companies in terms of technology such as solid-state batteries and hydrogen fuel cells.
Makoto Uchida, CEO of Nissan Motor, said in an interview with First Financial Reporter recently that as early as 30 years ago, Nissan began the research and development of in-vehicle batteries, and launched the world's first mass-produced pure electric vehicle Nissan Leaf in 2010. Nissan will apply its many years of experience in battery research and development to the future development of all-solid-state batteries, and plans to build a pilot plant in Yokohama, Japan in fiscal 2024. Nissan is currently promoting the development of all-solid-state batteries as planned, investing 140 billion yen (about 7.9 billion yuan) by 2026, and launching a mass-produced electric model equipped with an original all-solid-state battery by fiscal 2028. "The core of electro-drive is batteries, and Nissan will establish battery production bases in its core markets, and plans to increase our global battery capacity to 52 GWh by fiscal year 2026 and 130 GWh by fiscal year 2030." Makoto Uchida said.
At present, the battery volume of electric vehicles is generally very large, in order to control the weight of the body, car companies must use all-aluminum bodies. Large batteries can also take up space in the car, causing the space in the rear seats to be squeezed. After the use of solid-state batteries, because the battery is smaller and thinner, it can be more flexible to design and layout the vehicle. In addition, liquid lithium-ion batteries will have problems such as liquid leakage, combustion, and limited temperature range, and after using all-solid-state batteries, the cost of battery safety can be greatly reduced. All-solid-state batteries are considered to be one of the important technologies to accelerate the replacement of fuel vehicles for new energy vehicles, including Toyota, Nissan and many other car giants are accelerating to solve the problems such as the material and cost of all-solid-state batteries, and strive to make the cost of electric vehicles the same as the current fuel vehicles.
In the face of many battery manufacturers grabbing food and OEMs competing for dominance in the field of power batteries, the Ningde era, which has accounted for 1/2 of the domestic power battery market and 1/3 of the global power battery market, is seeking breakthroughs from the aspects of operation mode and technology.
Wu Hui pointed out that the Ningde era has a high market share in the power battery market, and it is inevitable to encounter development bottlenecks in the future, so it accelerates the expansion of the power exchange business, intending to transform from a battery manufacturer to an energy supplier and a service provider, from selling batteries to a role similar to "gas station", which is conducive to enhancing added value.
Previously, CATL has cooperated with WEILAI to carry out power exchange business, and now it will expand the scope of cooperation to face all car companies. CICC research report pointed out that the demand for electric vehicles has exploded, and there will be 10 million new energy vehicle owners in 2022, driving the contradiction of energy replenishment to become increasingly prominent. According to the ownership of electric vehicles, it is expected that the total number of substations in 2022 will be 2000 to 6000 seats, and this year will become an important turning point in the commercialization of substations 0 to 1, which will bring investment opportunities in the corresponding industrial chain, but at the same time, there is a risk that the promotion of the new energy replacement model is not as expected and the landing rhythm of subsequent supporting power replacement models is not as expected.
The promotion of the power exchange mode is not a small difficulty, and Car companies such as Terrass have previously chosen to give up on the power exchange mode.