Tonga submarine volcanic eruption "lost contact" multiple countries issued tsunami warnings What is the economic impact?

21st Century Business Herald reporter Hu Huiyin reported that on January 16, the South Pacific island nation of Tonga suddenly erupted from a volcano and fell into a state of "disconnection" throughout the territory, causing concern from the outside world.

It is understood that the island of Hong Aha Apay, located about 65 kilometers north of the capital of Tonga, Nuku'alofa, began a volcanic eruption on the 14th of this month, followed by another eruption on the 15th, and the capital Nuku'alofa observed a tsunami. Volcanic ash has been falling, local communications networks have been disrupted and unable to communicate with the outside world, and no reports of casualties or property damage have been received from the country.

The eruption in Tonga was widespread, with tsunami warnings from several countries, including New Zealand, Australia, Japan, the United States, Canada and Chile. However, as of the afternoon of January 16, the Japan Meteorological Agency had lifted the "tsunami attention warning" issued to the Pacific coast. The Tsunami Warning Center of the Ministry of Natural Resources of China also analyzed based on the latest monitoring results that the process is not expected to affect China's coast.

Some experts predict that the eruption of Tonga's volcano could last for weeks or months, and remind the local population that it must remain vigilant. In addition to being vigilant about the next eruption, the outside world is more worried about the impact of this on the economy.

Jiang Han, a senior researcher at Pangu Think Tank, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter: "Referring to the results of the previous European Mount Vesuvius and Chilean volcanic eruptions, the impact of volcanic eruptions must be very far-reaching. Especially for an island nation like Tonga, the impact will be enormous and it may take a long time to recover. ”

Yang Jingjing, deputy dean of the School of Finance of Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, also holds a similar view. He told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that in the short term, Tonga's local agriculture, fishing and tourism will be hit hard, causing a serious impact on the local economy.

Tonga's undersea volcano erupted the highest in 30 years

After a violent eruption of the submarine volcano on The Island of Hong Aha Apai in Tonga, it triggered a tsunami throughout the territory. According to the Tonga Meteorological Authority, the entire territory of Tonga is threatened by tsunamis, torrential rains, floods and strong winds.

Videos of the disaster in Tonga were circulating on social media, such as huge waves crashing onto the coast to flood roads and seawater pouring into homes. The United States Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre also observed a 0.8-metre-high tsunami in Tonga. Earlier, David Tapping, a former chief geologist in Tonga, had said that the submarine volcanic eruption was unprecedented and the intensity was very surprising. Shane Cronin, a volcanologist at the University of Auckland, also noted that the eruption was one of the largest in Tonga in the last 30 years, "spreading horizontally and producing a lot of ash." ”

It is reported that King Tupou VI of Tonga has also been evacuated from his palace near the sea. New Zealand, which is closer to it, reported on the situation in Tonga at a press conference on the morning of the 16th. New Zealand Prime Minister Ardern said that after the submarine volcanic eruption and tsunami, all telephone and network links between Tonga and the outside world could not be connected, and it was currently impossible to assess the damage to Tonga.

At the same time, Ardern said that the possibility of another eruption of the Tonga volcano is not ruled out. At present, the New Zealand side is ready to send aircraft to conduct aerial reconnaissance of the disaster in Tonga, but because a large amount of volcanic ash has not yet settled, the aircraft is temporarily unable to carry out reconnaissance missions in the air. Ardern expressed concern about volcanic ash contaminating water sources and noted that there may be a shortage of supplies for related domestic supplies. Ardern said the first aid fund of NZ$500,000 would be provided to Tonga.

On 15 January, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres issued a statement through a spokesman expressing deep concern about the strong eruption of an undersea volcano in the South Pacific island nation of Tonga and the triggering of a tsunami. He expressed the readiness of the United Nations to provide support at any time.

The tsunami caused by the successive eruptions of Tonga's submarine volcanoes has spread to the Pacific coast. Among them, Fiji, the United States, Japan, Canada and other countries have issued tsunami warnings.

On January 15, according to the video taken by Fijian residents, the impact on the Fiji coastal areas was obvious that day. The low-lying areas off the coast of Fiji are so submerged by the sea that many vehicles have to drive through the water. On the same day, the National Weather Service issued a tsunami warning for the West Coast and said the West Coast could face the biggest tsunami threat in more than 10 years. Many areas of California's San Francisco Bay Area have been affected, with raging waters flooding into low-lying coastal areas, emergency closures to nearby beaches in many locations, and urging people not to go near beaches, ports and docks.

In Japan, which lifted the "tsunami attention warning" on the afternoon of January 16, it was also affected by the tsunami. It is reported that in a number of fishing ports in Kochi Prefecture in the Shikoku region of Japan, 14 boats have been found to have capsized or washed away due to the tsunami, some of which have sunk, and there are no people on these ships. In addition, five fishing boats were found to have capsized in Tokushima Prefecture, also located in the Shikoku region, and no casualties have been found. In addition, traffic in many parts of the country has been affected. As of 8 a.m. on January 16, a total of 27 domestic flights in Japan had been cancelled, affecting the travel of about 530 people.

Economy "worse"

In fact, Tonga has been affected by the volcanic eruptions of Hon Aha Apay Island on several occasions before. It is understood that the volcano erupted several times in late 2014 and early 2015, when it paralyzed Tonga's air traffic. The volcano became active after December 20, 2021, and entered a brief dormancy period on January 11 this year. This time, the volcano erupted and exploded quite suddenly.

David Tarpin, a former chief geologist in the Kingdom of Tonga, said: "Although volcanic eruptions in Tonga are common, previous eruptions have been relatively calm, and now we know that volcanic eruptions can trigger tsunamis. ”

For the island nation of Tonga, the eruption is bound to have an economic impact on it.

Tonga is made up of the three archipelagos of Tongatabe, Wawau and Hapai and the small islands of Ewa and Niua, and is inhabited by about 105,000 people. Tonga's economy is dominated by agriculture, fishing and tourism, and its economic development is backward and it is heavily dependent on foreign aid. According to the International Monetary Fund, Tonga's GDP will be about $500 million in 2020 and its GDP per capita will be about $5,020. Affected by the epidemic, Tonga's GDP fell by 2.5% in 2020.

Yang Jingjing told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that Tonga has better natural resources and natural environment, and the main domestic industries are mainly agriculture, fisheries and tourism, and it is highly dependent on the economic assistance of neighboring countries such as Australia and New Zealand. He expects that in the short term, related industries will be hit hard, causing a serious impact on the local economy.

"Considering that the COVID-19 pandemic has already had a great impact on tourism, this volcanic eruption and tsunami will make the local economy worse." Yang Jingjing told reporters that the future reconstruction of Tonga also needs the assistance of the international community.

For the impact of the affected countries, Jiang Han told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the tsunami in Tonga will inevitably have an economic impact on these countries, and it depends on whether the tsunami will really reach these countries and what industries Tonga will have a specific impact on the Pacific Rim countries.

Yang Jingjing's view on this is more optimistic. "Due to the small size of Tonga's economy and the fact that Australia and New Zealand have more experience in dealing with extreme weather disasters such as tsunamis and earthquakes, the impact on the markets and economies of both countries is expected to be generally manageable."

In addition, there are also concerns that the natural disaster in Tonga will affect the capital market. Jiang Han predicted to reporters that tomorrow (January 17) the stock market may have obvious fluctuations.

Although the economic impact of the volcanic eruption in Tonga will continue for a long time, the local disaster situation is gradually stabilizing. On 16 January, according to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre, the threat of tsunamis from volcanic eruptions in Tonga had passed, but authorities in the affected areas should continue to monitor the situation to determine when normal activities could resume.

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