【Introduction】Dear old irons who raise pigs, give everyone a good old age! The Spring Festival holiday ended, I believe that many farmers before the festival out of the pen plan to complete, after all, can live a stable Spring Festival, however, for some of the farmers who press the fence, the pressure of the bar after the year increased sharply! With the resumption of procurement by slaughtering enterprises, logistics and transportation gradually recovered, in the domestic pig market, during the Spring Festival by the stagnation of market supply and marketing, slaughtering enterprise quotations have a strong trend of shock, however, with the recovery of market supply and marketing, slaughtering enterprises by the stage of "mao white" price difference is insufficient, the price pressure sentiment increased sharply, pig prices "alarm sounded", north and south of the shock drifting green, then, will the pig price collapse way down? Today we will analyze it in detail!
As we all know, with the official release of 2021 pig and pork production capacity data, the breeding industry fell into silence, after all, in June last year, the domestic sow inventory reached 45.64 million heads, and from July to August, with the decline in pig prices, farmers went to production capacity sentiment turned stronger, however, the sow inventory is still high at 45 million heads, and at the end of December 2021, the national sow inventory reached 43.29 million heads, compared with November there was a rebound of 330,000 heads! Therefore, according to the pig growth cycle forecast, into the March to May 2022 period, the domestic pig supply scale or will reach a stage peak, therefore, the pig price is not optimistic after the year, the market has the risk of continuing to find the bottom!
With the end of the Spring Festival of the Year of the Tiger, the pig price "alarm sounded", on February 8, the average price of lean pigs out of the barn in the country fell by a narrow range of 0.04 yuan, the pig price bottomed out 13.69 yuan / kg, the market ended the trend of strong shock, in the domestic north and south markets, many places fell in the market drifting green!
Judging from the feedback from the quotation of the market slaughtering enterprises, the northern market is generally less than 14 yuan / kg, only the Beijing-Tianjin market slaughter enterprises quote 14.1 yuan / kg, in Heilongjiang, Gansu and Xinjiang, the pig price fell below 13 yuan, and the Xinjiang market bottomed out 11.6 yuan / kg! In the southern market, most of the market fell below 15 yuan / kg, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and liangguang regions, slaughter enterprises quoted sideways 14 yuan / kg range, only Hainan stabilized 16.1 yuan, Shanghai hovered at 15.1 yuan / kg, in the southwest and central China most of the market fell below 14 yuan / kg, Yunnan market bottomed out 12.3 yuan / kg!
According to industry analysts, this round of pig price shock fell, the market bearish sentiment gradually turned stronger, because after the Spring Festival, consumers purchased less fresh pork, residents stored more goods in the refrigerator, some consumer bacon consumption occupied the protagonist, after the year the consumer sentiment also turned significantly worse, the demand for green vegetables rebounded significantly, which limits the pressure of pork in the terminal market! After the year, the enthusiasm of the breeding end is general, the group pig enterprises at the beginning of the month lack of plans to go out of the barn, and ordinary farmers have a certain panic, the supply of pigs is relatively loose, and the procurement performance of slaughtering enterprises is weak!
According to official data, as of February 7, the average price of white strip pigs in domestic fixed-point slaughtering enterprises fell to 19.19 yuan / kg, and the gross white price spread of slaughtering enterprises in the market fell to 5.5 yuan / kg, and the lack of price difference aggravated the performance of the loss of slaughtering enterprises, so the slaughtering enterprises have a certain feedback on price pressure! However, the market pig price trend shock is weak, although, the pig price fell more range, however, the decline is generally weaker, which is mainly affected by the domestic ushered in a new round of rain and snow weather, by the increase in rain and snow, road transport restrictions, breeding end out of the bar is difficult, wholesale market pork arrival is slow, therefore, slaughtering enterprises procurement is more difficult, the price of insufficient support. Therefore, based on the market stage supply and demand game, pig prices show a weak pattern of shocks!
So, will the pig price collapse in the next year? Personally believe that in the short term, pig prices or will continue the pattern of weak shocks, because the February pig out of the pen plan to clear more years ago, therefore, the february pig supply performance has declined, the market pork consumption constraints, pig prices will continue the downward trend, but the decline is limited! However, after entering March to April, with the continuous increase in the scale of moderately heavy pigs, pork consumption lacks substantial benefits, pig prices or the risk of falling in a collapsed manner, the market has a greater probability of bottoming out the low value of the year, some industry insiders predict that pig prices or will be less than 5 yuan / catty!
Pig prices "alarm sounded", the north and south of many places drifted green, pig prices to collapse in the way of falling? February 8 pig price! What do you think about this? The above is the author's personal opinion, the picture comes from the network, the content is for reference only!