For more than two thousand years of feudal monarchy, peasant uprisings have erupted in a cyclical pattern, as many as thousands of times, but the success is very small, even very few.
Liu Bang: The head of the Qin Dynasty pavilion, he followed the Chu noble Xiang Liang to raise an army, which can be regarded as the use of the general trend of the peasant uprising.
Liu Xiu: A descendant of the Western Han Dynasty, he followed the peasant revolt (Green Forest Army) and later won victory with the help of the gate valve.
Huang Chao: The imperial examination failed, an uprising was launched, and Chang'an was killed, and the world was in chaos.
Zhu Yuanzhang: The beginning of a broken bowl, from the south to the north, the establishment of the Ming Dynasty, this is a model of victory in the peasant uprising.
Li Zicheng: A small soldier on the border of the Ming Dynasty, he led an insurgent army to invade the Beijing Division, but soon perished, counting half a victory.
Hong Xiuquan: The imperial examination failed, launched an uprising, set the capital nanjing, confronted the Qing Dynasty, and then perished.
From the above, it can be seen that the only one who won the victory of the peasant uprising was Zhu Yuanzhang's family, or from the south to the north, the first person in history. Taizu Zhu Yuanzhang's victory was inseparable from his strategic plan of "building walls high, accumulating grain, and not being called king".
Hong Xiuquan, after the failure of the imperial examination, his goal was to be the second zhu yuanzhang, lead the rebel army to overthrow the Qing Dynasty, create a "mortal heavenly kingdom" where everyone is equal, and share the prosperity of the Taiping. However, due to the failure of the strategic decision, Hong Xiuquan not only failed to do as he wished, but was also dug out of the cemetery by Zeng Guofan, who was known as the "first perfect man in the ages", made into explosives, and fired out with cannons.
Looking at the military operations after the Jintian Uprising, Hong Xiuquan had a good chance of overthrowing the Qing Dynasty. At this time, the Eight Flags disciples who came and went like the wind had become "weak chickens". In the Nanjing Offensive Battle, 4,000 Eight Banners were all wiped out in 2 days, without the slightest good war of the past; the Green Battalion was even worse, not to mention the scattered deployment, the strength could not be concentrated, they had become "soldiers and oilers", disturbing the people first.
What about Zeng Guofan Xiangjun? Still in training, he was constrained by local officials everywhere, and was almost killed by Bao Qibao, the viceroy of Hunan, in Changsha. Therefore, as long as the strategic decision is correct, he is expected to become zhu Yuanzhang's second. Unfortunately, Hong Xiuquan rejected Luo Gang's three good strategies, and if he could adopt one, he could hope for victory.
First, march into Henan, directly attack Yanjing in the north, and expel the Tartars
In March 1853, two years after the Jintian Uprising, 600,000 Taiping Troops and their families captured Nanjing, taking the second largest city of the Qing Dynasty, and shocking the north and south of the river. At this time, Luo Gang made suggestions to Hong Xiuquan and Yang Xiuqing: "If you want to go north, you must first set Henan; the big driver is stationed in Henan, and the army is crossing the river." "Meaning, don't stay in Nanjing, the army captures the Central Plains, and then the Northern Expedition to Yanjing."
So, what are the probabilities of winning this proposal? And look at Lin Fengxiang, Li Kaifang's Northern Expedition, 2 veterans from Nanjing to Tianjin City, only 5 months, this speed is also no one. It can be seen that at this time, there were many problems in the military deployment of the northern part of the Qing Dynasty, and there was no ability to prevent the Taiping Army from going all out to the north.
Theoretically, Hong Xiuquan's direct northern expedition could overthrow the Qing Dynasty and drive the Xianfeng Emperor back to the northeast. However, the south has not yet been included in the territory, and the local governors support the self-respect of the soldiers, and may not accept the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom that believes in the worship of God. Therefore, with this suggestion, Hong Xiuquan could overthrow the Manchu Qing, but he might not be able to unify the whole country.
Second, seize the nine southeastern provinces and use their strong economic and manpower advantages to eliminate the Qing Dynasty
The proposal to capture Henan and the Northern Expedition to Yanjing was not adopted. Hong Xiuquan and Yang Xiuqing directly refused, and they sent Lin Fengxiang to lead 20,000 veterans on the Northern Expedition, and the strategy was to "rush to Yandu in the middle of the road, and there was no greed to attack the city and seize the land in order to gain time." That is, to play "blitzkrieg" and behead the Qing Dynasty. In this way, Luo Outline had to propose a second one, and the feasibility was very high, which could be called a "brilliant plan".
Luo Outline said: "Dingnan Nine Provinces, no internal worries, and then three ways out, one out of Xiangchu, one out of Hanzhong, rushing to Xianyang, with Xu and Yang sweeping the left side of the mountain, and then out of the right side of the mountain, will hunt Yandu." "This means to take the nine provinces of Jiangnan and reserve the necessary war resources with the developed economy and large population in the south." Then, they divided into three roads and converged under the Yanjing City to overthrow the Qing Dynasty in one fell swoop.
This suggestion is a combined and strengthened version of Zhuge Liang's "Longzhong Pair" and Zhu Yuanzhang's Northern Expedition strategy, and is an excellent "brilliant plan" to overthrow the Qing Dynasty. It should be known that at this time, the national economic center of gravity has completely shifted southward, the south has absolute strength to unify the north, and Zhu Yuanzhang and the Northern Expedition of the Republic of China have won, which is typical. Unfortunately, Luo Outline was still rejected.
Third, form a strong water division force, control the waterways, and wait for the Northern Expedition
Compared to the first recommendation, the second strategy is a "brilliant idea". Unfortunately, Hong Xiuquan and Yang Xiuqing's strategic vision was worrying, and they still did not adopt his suggestion. The typical performance is the Western Expedition, how did Hong and Yang carry out the Western Expedition? Quite simply, it is to play the "oil-adding tactics", and the scale of each dispatch is not large, but the army is increased to the battlefield again and again, and the result is to fatten the Xiang Army.
The strategy of the Northern Expedition was not adopted, and Luo Outline proposed a third life-saving medicine: "Since the capital is nanjing, it is necessary to build more warships and refine the water division", that is, to form a strong water division force, control the main roads of water and land transportation, and then look for opportunities to go north to the Central Plains. Facts have proved that Luo Gang's vision is really fierce enough, and he was hanged by the Xiang army in the late Taiping Heavenly Kingdom because he did not have a strong water division strength.
Unfortunately, Hong Xiuquan and Yang Xiuqing are overly obsessed with the "civilian ship fleet" and pursue the size of the fleet, rather than quality and firepower. In this way, a funny scene appeared: in the battle of Tianjiazhen, Peng Yulin's more than ten warships burned more than 4,000 "civilian ship fleets" of the Taiping Army, and basically destroyed the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom Marine Division.
Luo Xiuquan's three "good strategies for destroying the Qing Dynasty" gave Hong Xiuquan the opportunity to seize the world, but Hong Xiuquan was unable to adopt none of them, which was a pity. In this regard, Luo Gang was very helpless, and said bluntly: "The world is undecided, but I want to live in this capital, can it last for a long time?" I belong to the category of no-nonsense. "What do you mean?" The world is undecided, and we covet pleasure, and we will wait to be captured.
Facts have proved that Luo Gang was right: Lin Fengxiang's 20,000 veterans in the Northern Expedition were wiped out; the Western Expedition was "refueling tactics" and fattening the Xiang Army; the "Civilian Ship Fleet" was destroyed and lost control of the Yangtze River; without the control of the Yangtze River, the cities along the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom could not be defended, and they were gradually eaten by the Xiang Army, and eventually went to extinction.
It can be seen from this that the important reason for the failure of the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom is that the core leadership does not have a super high strategic vision, but is small and expensive, and the pattern is too small. If Zhu Yuanzhang had crossed over, the Qing Dynasty would have stopped.
Bibliography: History of the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom