Source: True Detective AlphaSeeker (ID: deep_insights) Author: Chen Wenqi
The price of new energy vehicles has risen.
Tesla's price increase was already clear at the end of last year, and the current price of the domestic Model 3 and Model Y rear-wheel drive versions was 265,700 yuan and 301,800 yuan, respectively, up 10,000 yuan and 21,000 yuan, respectively. In November 2021, Tesla's domestic Model 3 and Model Y models continued to raise prices, and at the end of December, they announced price increases again.
Among them, the price of the Model 3 rear-drive version rose by 25,000 yuan in two months, adjusted to 26.5652 yuan, and after the Model Y price increase, it has been completely out of the scope of the national new energy model subsidy (the policy stipulates that the subsidy is only for models that are priced below 300,000 yuan before the subsidy). Unlike multiple price cuts in 2020, Tesla last year announced several price increases for different models.
Model Y has exceeded 300,000 yuan after the price increase
Source: Tesla official website
Not only Tesla, but also in 2022, many new energy models have begun to increase prices.
FAW-Volkswagen ID.4 CROZZ and ID.6 CROZZ two pure electric models increased by 5400 yuan as a whole;
Nezha Automobile's U part of the model increased by 3000-5000 yuan, and the Nezha V part of the model increased by 2000 yuan;
GAC AE LX rose by 4,000 yuan, and the listed new AION S Plus increased by more than 7,000 yuan compared with the 2021 model
……
The price increase is not sudden, which is directly related to the national new energy vehicle subsidy policy that continues to decline.
On January 1, 2022, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the Notice of the Development and Reform Commission of the Ministry of Finance on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022. The Notice makes it clear that:
In principle, the subsidy standards for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2020-2022 will be reduced by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively on the basis of the previous year, that is, the subsidy standards for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021;
In principle, the annual subsidy scale is capped at about 2 million vehicles;
New energy vehicles in the fields of urban buses, road passenger transport, taxis (including online ride-hailing), sanitation, urban logistics and distribution, postal express delivery, civil aviation airports and party and government organs that meet the requirements, the subsidy standard in 2022 will be reduced by 20% on the basis of 2021;
On December 31, 2022, the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles was terminated, and vehicles licensed after December 31 were no longer subsidized.
In fact, since the state issued the "Notice on Carrying out the Pilot Subsidy for Private Purchase of New Energy Vehicles" in 2010, and decided to start the pilot work of private purchase of new energy vehicle subsidies in five cities, including Shanghai, Changchun, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Hefei, the national subsidy policy has been gradually improved and has become a powerful catalyst for China's new energy vehicle industry.
In the 11 years since the implementation of the national supplement, the production capacity, sales volume and penetration rate of new energy vehicles have increased significantly.
At present, the specific data for the whole year of 2021 has not yet been released, but according to the data of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November 2021, the cumulative output of domestic new energy vehicles has exceeded 3 million, the sales volume is close to 3 million, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles has risen to 17.8%, and the annual sales volume is expected to reach 3.4 million, an increase of 1.6 times.
Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
The new energy automobile industry has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven, and the national supplement has completed its historical mission and will withdraw from the stage step by step, and 2022 is the final transition period.
The dividend disappears, and part of the cost of the car company will inevitably shift to the consumer. In order to smooth the transition, many new energy vehicle companies have issued time-limited insurance policies. For example, NIO, while releasing the 2021 report card, sales reached a new high of 91,429 vehicles, while releasing a car purchase subsidy plan: before December 31, 2021 (inclusive) to pay a deposit to buy ES8, ES6 and EC6, and before March 31, 2022, users who pre-car can still enjoy subsidies in accordance with the 2021 national subsidy standards, and the difference is borne by NIO.
Last year's new car-making force champion Xiaopeng, with annual sales of 98,155 vehicles, also launched an insurance policy, "From January 1, 2022 to January 10, 2022, complete the order to pay the deposit, you can still enjoy the retail price after the national comprehensive subsidy in 2021, and the difference between the slope will be borne by Xiaopeng Company." ”
Before the Spring Festival, it is usually the peak season for automobile sales, which is the time for car companies to sprint sales, and some car companies have not yet made a clear statement, including BYD, Chery New Energy, etc.
The impact of the subsidy policy on the price fluctuations of the new energy automobile industry is short-lived. In terms of different models, the subsidy decline has a greater impact on models that emphasize cost performance and target the low-end market; for high-end models that are not subject to subsidy preferences, there is no substantial impact.
New energy automobile industry into adulthood, facing more challenges, 2021 is also a troubled autumn for new energy vehicle companies, although in the long run, the cost of automobile production showed a downward trend, but the epidemic, lack of core, power battery prices, raw materials and other factors superimposed, causing a series of chain reactions in the automotive industry, car companies fell into passivity.
As the core component of new energy vehicles, the demand for power batteries has doubled, and the market predicts that China's power battery shipments will exceed 450GWh in 2022, but the supply side is under pressure, the upstream lithium ore resources are in short supply, and the prices of various materials and components continue to rise.
In October last year, BYD's "Battery Price Increase Contact Letter" flowed out, showing that due to market changes, superimposed power rationing and production limitations, lithium battery raw materials continued to rise in 2021, the price of cathode material LiCoO2 increased by more than 200%, electrolyte price increased by more than 150%, and the supply of anode materials continued to be tight, resulting in a significant increase in comprehensive costs. Therefore, it was decided to increase the unit price of CO8M and other battery products, an increase of not less than 20%. The pressure of power battery price increases will inevitably be transmitted to car companies.
In order to resist the cost pressure brought about by the price increase of upstream lithium battery raw materials, power battery manufacturers such as Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Ganfeng Lithium industry and other power battery manufacturers have acquired lithium mines everywhere, and Tesla and other car companies are also laid out here.
The rapid development of the new energy industry upstream and downstream industry chain is huge, interlocking, upstream materials, parts, downstream power exchange, recycling, etc., behind the beautiful report card of car companies, full of uncertainty. The national supplement has withdrawn from the historical stage, but the competition in the new energy vehicle industry has just entered the deep water area.
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