Industry must read丨The status quo, change and trend of China's new energy automobile industry development

Recently, the 15th China-Japan Comprehensive Forum on Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection, approved by the State Council and jointly organized by the National Development and Reform Commission of China, the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan and the Japan-China Economic Association, was held by video.

Since 2006, the forum has been successfully held for 15 sessions and has become an important platform for cooperation between China and Japan in the fields of energy conservation, environmental protection and green development.

At the four sub-forums of energy efficiency improvement, vehicle electrification and intelligentization, hydrogen energy and clean power, and long-term trade between China and Japan held by the 15th China-Japan Comprehensive Forum on Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection, about 360 participants from government departments, enterprises, institutions and associations of China and Japan exchanged views online and offline.

Ye Shengji, chief engineer and deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, attended the meeting on behalf of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and delivered a speech entitled "Development and Trend of China's New Energy Automobile Industry".

Ye Shengji, chief engineer and deputy secretary-general of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers

The speech elaborated on the development status of China's new energy automobile industry from the following three aspects:

First, the current situation of China's new energy automobile industry

Implement a low-carbon emission reduction strategy and actively promote the electrification of automobiles around the world

In the context of global warming, the Paris Agreement was officially signed by the international community in April 2016. Many countries have made commitments and taken corresponding actions to achieve carbon neutrality and carbon peaking, and the Chinese government has also clearly put forward the strategic goal of "striving for carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060". The electrification of vehicles is a major measure to achieve the emission reduction targets of the Paris Agreement, and some countries have formally or informally announced plans to ban the sale of fuel vehicles.

China's top-level design is becoming more and more perfect, and the new energy automobile industry is developing with high quality

First, China has deeply implemented the national strategy for the development of new energy vehicles. In terms of building a working mechanism, in November 2013, with the approval of the State Council, an inter-ministerial joint conference system for the development of energy-saving and new energy vehicle industry was established (led by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, with the participation of the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Public Security and other departments). Various localities have successively established industrial development coordination mechanisms and built a work promotion mechanism for horizontal coordination and vertical penetration. The construction of this work mechanism has played an important and positive role in promoting the development of new energy vehicles in China.

Second, a sound policy system has been established. China's new energy vehicles have successively launched a series of support policies, formulated and implemented systematic standards, and local governments have introduced corresponding supporting policies in combination with actual conditions, and built the most complete new energy vehicle policy support system covering research and development, investment management, production access, market supervision, financial subsidies, tax incentives, promotion and use, safety supervision, etc.

In the past two years, a series of relevant policies have been successively issued, such as the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)", the national "14th Five-Year Plan", the "Carbon Peak Action Plan before 2030", and the "Guiding Opinions on Strengthening Production integration to Promote Industrial Green Development", which have further improved the policy system and played a positive role in promoting the high-quality development of new energy vehicles.

Note: Inter-ministerial joint meeting system: Consultation on matters involving the responsibilities of multiple departments of the State Council is the highest level of joint meeting system of administrative organs.

China's production and marketing scale is leading the world, and the market has entered a new stage of rapid growth

From the perspective of time stage:

2009-2015

During the period when the industrialization of New Energy Vehicles in China was promoted, the subsidy policy promoted the rapid development of the new energy automobile industry and laid the foundation for the market-oriented development of new energy vehicles.

2016-2021

China's new energy vehicle market has entered a period of rapid growth after the introduction period, growth period and rapid growth, and has shifted from "policy-driven" to "market-driven".

As of November 2021

The annual production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 3 million, a cumulative increase of more than 160% year-on-year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 10%, and the compound annual growth rate exceeded 110%, so the speed of development exceeded expectations.

Forecast for 2022

China's annual sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 5 million units. Such data is also gratifying.

The level of power batteries has been greatly improved, and the competitiveness of the industry is leading the world

From several data, first, the power consumption of mainstream pure electric passenger cars has been reduced to 12.5kWh/100km, the cruising range has been increased to more than 400km, and the system energy density has reached a maximum of 194.12Wh/kg, reaching the international advanced level, and the technical level of new energy buses is leading the world. Second, the global market share of Chinese manufacturers in 2020 will exceed 40%, and the domestic battery loading volume in China from January to November 2021 will be close to 130GWh, an increase of more than 150% year-on-year, which is also corresponding to the substantial increase in vehicle sales.

Key technologies such as motors and electronic controls have made great progress

Key indicators such as motor power, power density, and maximum speed continue to break through. The power density of the motor has increased from about 2.7kW/kg in 2011 to more than 4.5kW/kg at present, and the speed has increased from 5000rpm to 16000rpm or even higher, and the motor efficiency has reached the international advanced level.

Active support policies have been introduced, and the industrialization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles has entered the fast lane

Hydrogen fuel cells (in relatively closed and fixed route scenarios such as ports and logistics parks, medium and long-distance, high-load transportation scenarios) have outstanding advantages. Carry out fuel cell vehicle demonstration and promotion, with the landing of the "new deal" of industrial subsidies, various localities have also introduced corresponding supporting policies, and the industrialization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles has also entered a period of rapid development.

Breakthroughs in the integration of networked and intelligent technologies, and continuous product innovation

Software-defined vehicles have formed an industry consensus, deepened the integration of automobiles and ICT companies, promoted technology research and development in the fields of intelligent cockpit, environmental perception, vehicle-road collaboration, and accelerated industrialization of intelligent vehicles. This is also an important embodiment of the development of intelligent networked vehicles. Accelerate the promotion and application of "bicycle intelligence + network empowerment", and a number of advanced products have emerged in the fields of high-level assisted driving applications, intelligent cockpits, vehicle-level chips, and central computing platforms.

The charging infrastructure has been gradually improved, and the construction of charging networks in the public domain has been promoted

As of November 2021, the cumulative number of public charging piles and private exclusive piles in the member units of the China Charging Alliance has reached nearly 1.3 million units. The scale of China's public charging facilities accounts for nearly 60% of the world, public fast charging facilities account for 50% of the world, and the monthly charging and replacement capacity jumps to 1.5 billion degrees, and it is expected to exceed 13 billion degrees in the whole year. The total number of high-speed intercity fast charging facilities in China has exceeded 10,000 units, the coverage rate of expressways has exceeded 35%, covering 27 provincial-level administrative regions, and the high-speed highways in key areas of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta have achieved comprehensive coverage.

Diversified energy supply, fast charging, slow charging and vehicle electricity separation are combined

As of November 2021, the number of new energy substations in China is close to 1,200. From the perspective of power exchange operators, the largest number of substations is Weilai Automobile, reaching 700 seats, followed by Aodong New Energy and Botan Technology. From the perspective of the distribution of substations, Beijing, Guangdong and the eastern coastal provinces are mostly. Under the general trend of rapid growth in the production and sales of new energy vehicles, the market space of the power exchange model has gradually emerged.

Second, the transformation of China's new energy automobile industry

China's new energy automobile industry has also ushered in changes in industrial form in the process of rapid development:

Based on the new stage of development, build a new development pattern

In order to better implement China's "carbon peak carbon neutrality" strategy, energy transformation is the key, and policy guidance is the guarantee. Grasp the first-mover advantage, clarify the direction of development, gather superior resources, and accelerate the realization of new energy vehicles to become bigger and stronger. Accelerate the transformation and upgrading of automobiles, promote the integration and development of industries, develop China's standard intelligent vehicles, and build an intelligent automobile power.

Accelerate the transformation of the industrial form and enhance the independent and controllable ability of the industrial chain

First, vigorously promote the electrification, intellectualization and networking transformation of new energy vehicles, accelerate breakthroughs in key core technologies, improve testing and evaluation technologies, and enhance the level of industrial technology;

The second is to continue to innovate the industrial development model and continuously strengthen the independent and controllable ability of the industrial chain.

The ecological chain is becoming more and more perfect, and the reform of the energy structure is accelerating

First, the ecology of the new energy automobile industry has gradually evolved from the "chain relationship" between vehicle, parts research and development, production and marketing service enterprises into a "mesh ecology" in multiple fields such as automobiles, energy, transportation, information and communications.

Second, mutual empowerment and coordinated development have become the inherent needs of the development and growth of various market players.

Third, cross-industry and cross-field integration and innovation, more open and inclusive international cooperation have become a new feature of the development of the new energy automobile industry.

Consumer demand has rapidly upgraded, and cars have become mobile smart terminals

The driving pleasure brought by electric drive is gradually accepted by consumers, and at the same time, it promotes the change of energy consumption structure. With the use of a new generation of information technology, cars have become mobile smart terminals, changing the way people live and work. The hot spots that consumers pay attention to have shifted to three aspects: experience pleasure, information ubiquity, and enjoyment wisdom. Hot-selling new energy products show the characteristics of "polarization", and the foundation for the market-oriented development of new energy is being consolidated and the speed is accelerating.

Third, the development trend of new energy vehicles in China

At present, China's new energy vehicles have entered a new stage of accelerated development, are experiencing industrial changes, and also usher in the following development trends:

Continuous innovation and development, accelerate the process of vehicle electrification

Taking the breakthrough of key core technologies as the starting point, we will promote the balanced optimization of electric vehicles and power batteries at six levels: low cost, high performance, high safety, long life, wide temperature adaptability, and fast charging performance. Construct and optimize the architecture platform, focusing on breakthroughs in basic research and experimental verification of power systems, chassis systems, body systems, electronic and electrical systems, and general components. Coordinate to promote infrastructure construction such as charging/power replacement complementarity, and improve the convenience of new energy vehicles. Explore diversified technical solutions to meet the needs of diversified passenger car markets and accelerate the process of electrification of commercial vehicles.

Cross-industry and cross-field integration and innovation have become a new feature of industrial development

The integration and development of automobiles and emerging technologies has been accelerated, and the mutual empowerment and coordinated development of industries such as automobiles, transportation, and information and communications have become the inherent needs of the development and growth of market players, and cross-border coordination and integrated development have become an inevitable trend. With the accelerated evolution of product forms, the continuous innovation of the division of labor model, and the intelligent interconnection and interconnection sharing of vehicles, infrastructure and operating platforms, the automotive industry is truly undergoing revolutionary changes.

Green and low-carbon development runs through the whole life cycle of products and the whole industry chain

As a major energy consumer, the industry must shoulder the responsibility of reducing carbon emissions. Low carbon emissions throughout the life cycle are achieved through the low-carbon production and recycling process of power batteries, drive motors, components and other materials. Through the low-carbonization of energy supply for new energy vehicles, the low-carbon supply of materials, the low-carbonization of production processes, and the low-carbonization of transportation and travel, we will promote carbon neutrality in the whole industrial chain and the whole life cycle.

Multi-party collaboration to promote the recycling of new energy vehicles

First, from the industry level, give play to the role of the platform, and establish a benign recycling system: accelerate the formulation of industry group standards, improve the standard policy system; standardize the caliber of industry statistics, build a third-party evaluation trading platform, share information and resources, solve the problem of recycling in the whole industry chain; increase industry publicity, and consolidate the concept of public environmental protection.

The second is to strengthen the collaboration of the industrial chain from the enterprise level, innovate business models, and accelerate the landing of battery recycling. Actively give play to the advantages of the main body of the industrial chain, evaluate the benefits of new energy battery recycling, explore innovative business models, explore power battery cascade utilization scenarios and potential markets, expand battery recycling channels, and open up the supply and demand side information barrier of the industrial chain.

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