CITIC Securities: The decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles is in line with expectations The high prosperity of the industry will continue

Zhitong Finance APP learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that the upper limit of subsidy scale was relaxed to enhance the industry boom, and the upward trend of the industry was clear. The requirements of product technical indicators remain unchanged, and with the improvement of battery technology, the scale of new energy vehicles is expected to continue to increase. At the current point in time, it is recommended to grasp the high-quality targets of the global electrification supply chain, especially Tesla, CATL Times, LG Chemical Supply Chain, and the opportunities of vehicle quality standards, including the battery/motor link of Ningde Era (300750.SZ), BYD (002594.SZ), Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014), Sunwoda (300207.SZ), Jingda Co., Ltd. (600577.SH), etc.; Defang Nano (300769.SZ) and Zhongwei Co., Ltd. (600577.SH) of lithium battery materials 300919.SZ), Pu Tai Lai (603659.SH), Shanshan Shares (600884.SH), Zhongke Electric (300035.SZ), Xinzhubang (300037.SZ), Xiamen Tungsten (600549.SH), etc., it is recommended to pay attention to Enjie Shares (002812.SZ), Kodali (002850.SZ), Tianci Materials (002709.SZ); upstream equipment and resources: Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ), etc. Focus on Hangke Technology (688006.SH), Pilot Intelligence (300450.SZ); Thermal Management Supply Chain: Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050.SZ), Yinlun (002126.SZ), Tuopu Group (601689.SH).

The main views of CITIC Securities are as follows:

On December 31, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2022.

The current technical indicators remain unchanged, and the subsidy decline is generally in line with expectations.

In 2022, the framework and threshold requirements of the current purchase subsidy technical indicator system will remain unchanged: the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021, of which 300-400 km pure electric vehicle models/ greater than or equal to 400 km pure electric vehicle models/plug-and-mix models will be subsidized 9,100/12,600/4,800 yuan respectively (13,000/18,000/6,800 yuan in 2021), of which plug-in hybrid models, urban buses, For vehicles that meet the requirements in the field of road passenger transport, rental (including online car-hailing), sanitation, urban logistics and distribution, postal express delivery, civil aviation airports, and party and government organs, the subsidy standard will be reduced by 20% on the basis of 2021.

The upper limit of 2 million vehicles has been relaxed, and subsidies will run through the whole year of 2022.

The subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be terminated on December 31, 2022, and the subsidy will no longer be given to vehicles on the license plate thereafter. At the same time, the technical indicators related to the current purchase subsidy will remain unchanged in 2022, and the subsidy scale will be relaxed from the original expected upper limit of the subsidy scale of 2 million vehicles, and the subsidy will be realized throughout the whole year of 2022. In addition, the policy mentions that we will continue to increase the intensity of auditing and do a good job in the liquidation and finishing of the promotion vehicles in the previous year. We believe that the overall stability of relevant policy details will promote the continued growth of the new energy vehicle market.

High-quality models continue to lead, and the industry's high growth rate can be expected.

With the stable landing of the subsidy policy in 2022 and the continuous launch of superimposed high-quality models, the industry's intelligent electric trend will continue to accelerate, promoting the electrification and intelligent prosperity. Domestically, we maintain our 2022 new energy vehicle sales forecast, which is expected to reach 4.8 million units for the full year, up 38% year-on-year. In Europe, the European market is expected to show rapid growth under the new regulations on carbon emissions that are gradually tightening. In the United States, the policy environment is warming, the electrification process is expected to accelerate, we expect sales to reach 3 million/8 million vehicles by 2025/2030, the penetration rate is close to 20%/50%, and the compound growth rate in 2021-25 is 50%.

Risk Factors:

Sales of new energy vehicles did not meet expectations; the duration of the overseas epidemic was uncertain; the implementation of new energy vehicle policies in various countries did not meet expectations; and the epidemic situation in some parts of The country was repeated.

This article is compiled from "CITIC Securities", authors: Yuan Jiancong, Yin Xinchi, Li Harrier, Wu Weichen, Teng Guanxing, Huang Yaoting, Ke Mai; Zhitong Finance Editor: Wang Jie.