Recently, the power exchange track has become more and more hot. On January 18, the trillion "Ning Wang" officially cut into the electric vehicle replacement track and launched the strategy of "chocolate replacement block".
CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that compared with the current charging technology, power exchange is a more efficient way to replenish energy, after ten years of accumulation, the industry has entered an accelerated period.
2022 is expected to become the first year of the rapid development of the power exchange industry, the whole year is expected to add more than 3,000 new power stations, and in 2025, the industry is expected to add more than 10,000, five years ten times more space.
Power exchange origin: a new form of energy replenishment, accelerating the increase of electric power rate
1. What are the power exchange products, and what pain points and scenarios are mainly solved?
Power exchange refers to the mode of supplementing electrical energy by directly replacing the battery of the electric energy carrier, mainly through the centralized charging station for centralized storage, centralized charging, unified distribution of a large number of batteries, and then provide battery replacement services for electric vehicles in the battery distribution station.
The existing power exchange methods are mainly: chassis power exchange, side power exchange and sub-box power exchange. Among them, chassis power exchange is the mainstream, and about 80% of the current models adopt chassis power exchange, which has the advantages of fully automatic, short duration, more convenience and safety.
Yuan Jiancong, an analyst at CITIC Securities, pointed out that power exchange solves the core pain points of electric vehicles and helps the penetration rate of electric vehicles in all scenarios to increase. New energy vehicles are the main development trend in the future, and power replacement is an important driving force for the further improvement of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles.
At the same time, with its short energy replenishment time, low battery loss, driving safety guaranteed, small footprint and other multi-dimensional advantages can effectively solve the development dilemma of electric vehicles in charging mode.
In general, the essence of the power exchange model is to tap the full life cycle value of the power battery and realize the redistribution of the interests of enterprises and consumers.
2. Dismantling of the industrial chain: the equipment and operation of the power station account for a relatively large proportion
The upstream of the industrial chain of the power exchange industry is composed of battery suppliers, basic component suppliers of substation replacement stations, and suppliers of supporting charging systems.
The midstream is mainly for the construction and operator of the substation, responsible for the construction and operation of the substation, providing power exchange services for the market, and the corresponding B-end is more than the C-end.
The downstream is mainly composed of power exchange service users and power battery recyclers.
Industry review: policy + capital + technology work together, and the industry has entered an accelerated period
1. Historical review: After more than ten years of accumulation, the industry has entered a period of growth
CITIC Securities believes that the current power exchange model has entered a new stage of power. Looking back at the development history of the power exchange model, from the three dimensions of technology, policy and commercial maturity, it can be divided into three stages:
Initial stage (2007~2012): the initial formation of technical ideas, subject to policies, immature business models, etc., the development of the industry is not as expected;
Precipitation stage (2013~2019): The policy stage is biased towards charging, and the power exchange mode is slowly progressing. However, at this stage, the exploration of the power exchange model in technology and business model has achieved certain results compared with the initial stage;
Power stage (since 2020): The policy has undergone a positive change in the attitude towards power exchange, successive documents have been issued to encourage the application of the power exchange mode, and all parties have accelerated the construction of the entry layout of the power station.
2. Driving factors: products, policies, capital work together, and power exchange opens a high-speed development power exchange mode
2.1 At present, the power exchange mode is gradually maturing, and there are five advantages as an energy supply method for electric vehicles:
Cost-effective: The power exchange mode is more cost-effective, saving the purchase cost at the beginning of the purchase, and the cost of the use process is lower than that of the charging and fuel mode.
The energy replenishment efficiency is high, the battery loss is small, and the space occupation is small.
Safety: Safety has always been an important concern in the way electric vehicles are replenished, and has been further improved.
Grid efficiency: The power exchange mode effectively alleviates the pressure of grid expansion.
Technology: After long-term development, through the iterative update of key links, the power exchange technology has made great progress in the length of power exchange, compatibility and degree of automation.
2.2 Capital: All parties are optimistic about the power exchange track, and a large amount of capital has poured in
Under the vigorous promotion of the policy, all parties are optimistic about the development of the power exchange track, and a large amount of capital has poured in, which is conducive to the power exchange model. On the one hand, the investment of main engine factories has increased, and major car manufacturers have successively entered the field of power exchange, accelerating the launch and mass production of power exchange models.
At the same time, Aodong, Botan, GCL Energy and other substation operators have accelerated the construction of substations and actively cooperated with OEMs. Oil giants such as Sinopec and Shell have also carried out strategic cooperation with Wei to carry out the construction and operation of substations.
On the other hand, Huawei, SoftBank and other capital investment in the power exchange model; battery companies such as Ningde Times also personally entered the power exchange industry, through charging and replacing to improve the sales and enthusiasm of batteries, and worked closely with car companies to establish battery asset management companies in conjunction with Weilai, from production and manufacturing to energy services. The power exchange market is expected to usher in rapid development.
2.3 Policy Factors: The trend of the times encourages power exchange, but the core standardization documents have not yet been introduced from government policies and society
From the perspective of resource allocation, in the future development of new energy vehicles, the large-scale application of the power exchange mode will be the trend of the times. Compared with the charging mode, the power exchange mode plays a better role in regulating the distribution capacity, power grid dispatching, land resources, infrastructure construction, battery management, etc.
Industry space: the first year of the material has arrived, five years and ten times +
1. Power exchange business model: The BaaS model may become mainstream, and the operational market has the strongest certainty
After more than ten years of exploration, power exchange has gradually formed a more mature "vehicle-electricity separation" business model.
One of the possible future power exchange modes is the BaaS model released by WEI. In 2021, WEILAI joined hands with Ningde Times, Guotai Junan and Hubei Science and Technology Investment Group to establish Weineng Battery Asset Company, which has become a bridge linking car companies, battery factories and consumers, and the main body responsible for the recycling of waste batteries has been transferred from car companies to battery asset management companies.
2. Industry space: 2025 or more than 30,000, to achieve five years and ten times +
This year is the third year of the power exchange into the power stage, in the short term, considering the policy turn soon, the specific rules have not been introduced, the business model and operating model of the power exchange have not been completely straightened out, still in the exploration period, CITIC Securities predicts that the market size of the new substation in 2022 will be more than 3,000.
In the long run, the total demand of the global automotive industry is basically stable, China has been the main engine of global automobile consumption growth in the past 15 years, and it is expected that by 2025, China's new energy vehicle sales will reach 13 million. In 2025, the sales volume of new energy passenger cars and commercial vehicles is expected to reach 14% and 37% respectively, and the sales of replacement models are expected to reach 1.76 million and 160,000 vehicles, respectively, with a total sales volume of nearly 2 million vehicles.
Overall, it is expected that the number of new substations will exceed 10,000 in 2025, and the number of ownership will exceed 30,000. In 2025, the market size of substation equipment is expected to reach 40.2 billion yuan, the scale of the electricity market is expected to reach 13.8 billion yuan, and the operating market size is expected to reach 60.6 billion yuan.
Industry pattern: focus on resource integration, efficiency companies
1. Industry competitiveness: resource integration ability + key customer resources + efficiency is the key to industry competition
Power exchange operators: Third-party operators with industry resource integration capabilities are expected to win. Power exchange operators are the core link of the power exchange industry chain, through site selection, station construction, docking downstream G-end, B-end, C-end social relations and resources to provide power exchange services, the highest comprehensive capability requirements.
Power exchange equipment suppliers: Power exchange equipment suppliers mainly provide one-stop power exchange equipment for the industry, mostly for the transformation of equipment suppliers in other fields of the machinery industry, which is the most certain area of benefit in the early stage of industry development.
2. Participants: Four types of participants are accelerating their influx, each with its own endowment
CITIC Securities believes that at present, the power exchange, especially the operator field, can be divided into four categories according to the resource endowment and industrial chain relationship at the beginning:
OEMs, such as Weilai, Geely, etc., are essentially to drive their own car sales growth by providing power replacement models and power replacement services;
Battery companies, with third-party attributes, enhance battery orders by integrating industry resources, especially standardized batteries, to promote industry demand;
Energy suppliers and other central enterprises and state-owned enterprises, such as the State Grid;
Third-party operators, such as GCL Energy, Aodong, etc., take power exchange operation as their main business, and their identities are positioned as third-party participants to provide general services for the industry.
This article is mainly excerpted from the CITIC Securities Research Report "The First Year of Changing Electricity, Ten Times Space"