CITIC Securities: January sales in line with expectations The new energy vehicle industry is expected to rise

Zhitong Finance APP was informed that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that mainstream car companies continue to introduce high-quality models to enhance the industry boom, and the upward trend of the industry is clear. The US policy environment is warming up and is expected to return to high growth, Tesla (TSLA. US) continues to lead the global electrification trend. The global new energy vehicle industry chain has entered a stage of rapid growth, and the current point in time continues to recommend seizing the opportunities of high-quality standards in the global electrification supply chain, especially Tesla, Ningde Times (300750.SZ), LG Chemical Supply Chain, including

1) Ningde Era, BYD (002594.SZ, 01211), Ewell Lithium Energy (300014.SZ), Sunwoda (300207.SZ), Penghui Energy (300438.SZ), Jingda Co., Ltd. (600577.SH), Yihuatong (688339.SH), etc.; Defang Nano (300769.SZ), Tiannai Technology (688116.SH), Putailai (603659.SH) of lithium battery materials , Zhongke Electric (300035.SZ), Shanshan Shares (600884.SH), Xinzhubang (300037.SZ), Xiamen Tungsten (600549.SH), etc., it is recommended to pay attention to Enjie Shares (002812.SZ), Kodali (002850.SZ), Tianqi Materials (002709.SZ);

2) Upstream equipment and resources: Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ), etc., pay attention to Hangke Technology (688006.SH), Pilot Intelligence (300450.SZ);

3) Thermal management supply chain: Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050.SZ), Yinlun Shares (002126.SZ), Tuopu Group (601689.SH), etc.

The main views of CITIC Securities are as follows:

In January, sales of new energy vehicles were 431,000 units, -18.6% month-on-month and +135.8% year-on-year, in line with market expectations.

According to the data of China Automobile Association, the production/sales of new energy vehicles in mainland China in January were 45.2/431,000 units, -12.6% / -18.6% month-on-month, +133.2% / +135.8% year-on-year, excluding the "Spring Festival effect", production and sales in the same month maintained rapid growth. By model, new energy passenger vehicles sold 419,000 units (-15.7% q-o-q, +138.7% yoY) in January, of which EVs and PHEV sold 335,000 units (-19.4% q/m, +127.3% yoY) and 85,000 units (+3.1% Q/M, +198.3% yoY). In addition, new energy commercial vehicles sold 12,000 units (-62.6% q/q/y+ +66.6%). In January, new energy vehicles exported 56,000 units, an increase of 542.6% year-on-year, according to the data of the Association, of which Tesla exported 40,499 units in January, +16,430.20% month-on-month.

Passenger cars: Premium supply continues to be introduced, and hot-selling models are driving the boom.

In January, the production/sales of new energy passenger cars were 43.7/419,000 units (-10.4%/-15.7% month-on-month, +134.6/+138.7% year-on-year), and the scale of production and sales far exceeded the same period last year, while the market penetration rate of new energy passenger cars reached 19.2%. From the perspective of different markets, high-quality supply has been launched to fully stimulate the demand in the fields of high-end and mass market. According to the data of the Association, Tesla's domestic Model Y sales (excluding exports) reached 16,358 units in January, +896.8% year-on-year. In January, BYD's electric passenger car sales were 93,000 units, unchanged month-on-month, of which 47,000 units were sold, +761% year-on-year, +5% month-on-month, and the demand for the main DM-i series models was strong, the production capacity continued to be released, and the short-term fluctuations in supply did not change the demand. Throughout 2022, as mainstream car companies continue to launch high-quality new models, high-quality supply is expected to further stimulate market demand.

Commercial vehicles: Sales were sluggish in January and are expected to be repaired in the second half of the year.

In January, the production/sales of new energy commercial vehicles were 16,000/12,000 units (-48.1%/-62.6% month-on-month, +99.7%/+66.6% year-on-year), and the demand for new energy commercial vehicles was relatively sluggish. In terms of buses, Yutong Bus announced that its passenger car sales data in January was 1828 units, -36.2% year-on-year and -362.3% month-on-month, and we judge that its new energy bus sales in January were about 640 units. In January, the company's bus sales have declined, we expect to be mainly affected by the scattered epidemic and the industry's low boom, the fundamentals are at the bottom, with the recovery of the industry, the superimposed electric heavy truck market is rapidly opening, and the operation is expected to usher in a turnaround.

High-quality models continue to lead, and the high growth rate of the industry continues.

With the stable landing of the subsidy policy in 2022, the continuous launch of superimposed high-quality models has made it clear that the general trend of intelligent electric vehicles in the industry will continue to accelerate in the future, and promote the upward trend of electrification and intelligence. In Europe, new energy vehicle sales rose year-on-year in January, Germany / Italy / Spain / The United Kingdom in January electric vehicle sales of 4.0 / 0.9 / 0.5 / 23,000 units, +8% / + 46% / + 180% / +90% year-on-year, in the medium and long term, the European market in the gradual tightening of carbon emissions under the new regulations, is expected to show rapid growth. In the United States, the policy environment is warming, the electrification process is expected to accelerate, we expect sales to reach 3 million/8 million vehicles by 2025/2030, the penetration rate is close to 20%/50%, and the compound growth rate in 2021-25 is 50%.

Risk Factors:

Sales of new energy vehicles did not meet expectations; the duration of the overseas epidemic was uncertain; the implementation of new energy vehicle policies in various countries did not meet expectations; and local epidemics in China were repeated.

This article is compiled from "CITIC Securities Research", authors: Yuan Jiancong, Yin Xinchi, Li Harrier, Wu Weichen, Teng Guanxing, Wang Hao, Huang Yaoting, Ke Mai; Zhitong Finance Editor: Wang Jie.