The past 2021 has been full of hope and a little regret, and the light of these hopes and the bleakness of regret will be paved into the prologue to 2022.
In the future 2022, China's auto market still has a margin of growth, and our Chinese auto companies still need to be in the direction of straight overtaking, all the way through the thorns and forge ahead.
Once upon a time, we had high hopes for the term "overtaking in curves". But this hope with the advent of the new energy era, multinational car companies have carried out elephant turn and gradually declined, whether it is traditional car companies or new car-making forces, began to squeeze on a track to fight hard power.
In the past year, in the field of new energy vehicles, multinational auto giants have completed the process from cognition to practice, and the development time left for independent brands has disappeared.
From 2021 onwards, the full liberalization of the joint venture share ratio and the removal of the restriction that the same foreign company can establish two or less joint ventures have also removed the last shade in the greenhouse environment. If it were not for the repeated global epidemics that caused overseas car companies to stop production and reduce production, perhaps the pressure on independent car companies this year would be earlier and heavier.
So, will the automotive industry change in 2022? Maybe not so, but it will certainly be a year of remembrance. At this turning point in the era of automotive energy, the global epidemic is still eating the environment of the automobile economy, which will inevitably leave a strong mark on the history of automobiles.
In 2022 sales, new energy is the key
Judging from the performance of the entire auto market in 2021, it is a little regret in the hope.
Happily, the automotive industry recovered rapidly at the beginning of the year, with production and sales exceeding everyone's forecast at the end of 2020, and even allowing some institutions to readjust their annual sales forecasts during the year. At the same time, the popularity of new independent brand cars continues to rise, and orders have also soared, for example, BYD's annual order demand has exceeded one million.
But then came the regret of the second half of the year, because the recurrence of the global epidemic led to a sharp drop in chip packaging in some parts of Southeast Asia. Originally, because the mass production cycle of the vehicle-grade chip was too long, it inhibited the global automobile production in the first half of the year to a certain extent, and then the epidemic in the second half of the year led to changes in the plan, and the serious lack of "core" further worsened the production capacity.
However, according to the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers in 2021, the production and sales of the domestic automobile market have reached 26.1 million units, and the overall production and sales have increased by 3.1% year-on-year, of which the traditional fuel vehicle market is slightly year-on-year increase of 1.1%, while new energy has achieved a substantial year-on-year increase of 171.2%.
In such a deteriorating and despised environment, the production and sales of new energy vehicles can achieve substantial growth, and the overall sales volume in 2021 has the opportunity to exceed 3 million units, which is almost a result that everyone has never imagined before. This indicates that the new energy vehicle market is about to enter a new stage of explosive growth, and has shifted from being mainly policy-driven to market-driven in the past.
It is worth noting that the current data shows that the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached 12.6%. This is a delicate numerical value.
Generally speaking, 15% market penetration is a very critical tipping point for any industry and a market. From the perspective of new energy vehicles, the market penetration rate of 15% will be the inflection point in the market growth of this type of product. According to surveys, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles takes 84 months from 0 to 5%, and from 5% to 10% in 5.8 months. Once the penetration rate reaches 10%, the time stay of the rise will be shorter and shorter, which is like entering the fastest acceleration period after the start.
The industry generally believes that the overall production and sales of automobiles will exceed 27 million units next year, of which 5 million are new energy vehicles. From a numerical point of view, the overall forecast is considered to be decent, but the prediction of new energy is not blind.
First of all, after the new energy vehicles have entered the rapid popularization period, they will accelerate their penetration into small and medium-sized cities, and the new energy market in second- to sixth-tier cities this year already has a relatively fast growth rate. Secondly, at present, the product positioning of domestic new energy vehicles is still in the spindle stage, either the model that can match the price of luxury cars led by the new forces, or the low-cost micro-electric vehicle launched by some traditional car companies, indicating that the new energy market is still in its infancy and is about to enter a period of rapid growth.
We can see that Tesla in 2021 has caused sales to rise rapidly due to price reduction operations, and Weilai, which has always stood at the high end, has also begun to step down the steps to the mid-end market. In addition, mini cars will also have to face the pressure of cost control with the development of technology and changes in consumer demand, and once the configuration keeps up with the mainstream level, the uncontrolled price will also make them unpopular.
High-end models to explore the water, low-end models to raise the positioning, the middle of the price range of 150,000-250,000 will also have more and more players to settle in, then there will inevitably be a new struggle. It is precisely this kind of entanglement that forces car companies to improve the level of products and also fills the demand in this field.
Looking forward to technology research and development, keep an eye on chip production
Every year, we look forward to what new technologies will emerge, and we are also predicting when these new technologies will be loaded on the car.
Over the past two years, smart connectivity and autonomous driving have become the highlights of automotive technology. If it weren't for the occasional release of new technologies by battery manufacturers, our outlook for the iteration of car updates would be looking to the future through the present. However, 2022 probably doesn't need to stretch your neck to spy on the future, and we look at some of the technologies that are close at hand.
For example, through the improvement of safety technology, it will promote the loading application of 300Wh/kg high specific energy power batteries. After years of publicity and practice of new energy vehicles, some consumers have now diluted their mileage anxiety, while the layout of new energy vehicles is gradually improving, and everyone has a new understanding of battery life. But the technology must move forward, the current Guoxuan hi-tech solid-state battery is officially matched, 300Wh / kg high specific energy battery equipped with passenger cars, and Fu Neng Technology has developed an energy density of 330Wh / kg soft pack battery, the cycle can exceed 1500 times.
It is expected that in 2022, the 300Wh/kg power battery will take the lead in equipping high-end models, which will further clearly divide the positioning of each model.
Also about the battery, the same is the endurance, intelligent thermal management technology has become an area that all car companies need to continuously improve. Huawei released the Highly Integrated Intelligent Vehicle Thermal Management Solution (TMS), which streamlines the architecture, integrates components and controls, and integrates a series of innovative technologies that can increase the cruising range of new energy vehicles by 20%.
If you only look at new energy vehicles from the perspective of sales growth, it may be enough to call 2021 the first year of the take-off of new energy vehicles, but with the market share of pure electric passenger cars based on dedicated platforms, it may be enough.
In 2020, the market share of pure electric passenger cars based on dedicated platforms exceeded 36%, and in 2021, it will steadily grow to about 46%. At present, the newly developed electric passenger cars in China have generally adopted dedicated platforms, such as Geely SEA Haohan architecture, SAIC Zhiji iO platform, Changan C385 platform, BYD e3.0 platform, and overseas brands also have Volkswagen MEB platform. With the more extensive application of independent brand car companies and the positive transformation of some large brands, the market share of such new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 65% in 2022.
The last thing to say is the chip, there is no shortage of chip technology at present, what is missing is the ability to manufacture chips.
All the regrets of the automotive market in 2021, whether it is insufficient production capacity or the functional castration of smart car machines, are almost all related to chips. The particularity of vehicle-grade chips, as well as the difficulty of chip manufacturing itself, has caused the current lack of "core" conditions, although it is predicted that 2022 will be alleviated, but no one is sure whether the repeated epidemic situation in the middle of last year will still occur.
At present, at least more than 30 enterprises in China are fully engaged in the development and production of various types of automotive chips, including control chips, computing chips, memory chips, sensor chips and communication chips, etc. As for when there is good news, it is still unknown. Although Huawei has made remarkable achievements in the research and development of mobile phone chips, the key is production, and domestic lithography machines currently only have the ability to produce 90-nanometer chips, which is a step of the technology research and development process, and 2021 is just the beginning.
But "the road is long and long, the line is coming", as long as you take a step, even if you have hope, the rest is left to time.
Bell description
We all know that the future will be different from the present, but we are not sure what the future will look like, but there is no need to worry, we can choose to create the future. Although the task is heavy and the road is long, if the direction has been determined, then it is enough to bury your head in hard work.