"If you use one word to describe the new energy vehicle market in 2021, what should be the answer?"
I believe that many people will give the answer of "big fish in the water".
2021 is the first year of the outbreak of the domestic new energy vehicle market, and the annual batch sales penetration rate has exceeded the 15% mark, and more than 20 percentage points in many months in the second half of the year.
Under such a high degree of prosperity, it has also made a number of new power brands and traditional car companies that have successfully transformed to make a lot of money.
Judging from the latest December electric vehicle sales, many car companies have set a new monthly high, of which BYD continues to perform with 92,823 vehicles, staging a phenomenon-level market performance of "one dozen and ten".
Wei Lai, Xiao Peng, Ideal, and Nezha of the new faction once again collectively crossed the 10,000 mark. In absolute terms, 10,000 may not be much, but if you compare the data of the North and South Volkswagen brands totaling 13,787 ID electric vehicles in December, such an achievement is definitely outstanding.
In addition, the new brands incubated by traditional car companies also have good performances, such as Geely's Extreme Krypton, Dongfeng's Lantu all exceeded the 3,000-vehicle mark in December, and even BAIC Polar Fox has data on breaking 1,000 vehicles.
Next, take a look at the results of these brands that have announced December sales over the past period and briefly look at their market expectations for 2022. (In order of December sales from highest to lowest)
1. BYD, BEV+PHEV product lines are parallel, the only electric vehicle brand with a market share of more than double digits
(The new energy target of up to 1.5 million units by 2022 is given internally.)
From the acquisition of Xi'an Qinchuan Automobile in 2003 to 2020, BYD has not been able to become the head brand in the passenger car market, and even in recent years, it has been pulled away by Great Wall, Geely and Changan.
However, the outbreak of the domestic new energy market in 2021 has given BYD the opportunity to counterattack in the field of BEV+PHEV, which adheres to long-term doctrine. At present, BYD is already a proper electric vehicle brother, even stronger than the Market Position of the Volkswagen brand in traditional fuel vehicles.
In December, BYD's single-month batch sales of electric vehicles soared by 236.4% to 92,823 units, and the annual sales reached a staggering 593,745 units (twice Tesla's sales in the Chinese market), and up to about 20% in the overall new energy passenger car market. In addition, BYD's market share of about 50% of the PHEV market is comprehensively crushing its peers.
In 2022, BYD has internally provided guidelines for new energy sales of up to 1.5 million vehicles. If this target is achieved as scheduled, BYD's share of the domestic new energy market will grow to about 30%, and it will also become the first brand in the world to achieve millions + new energy sales in a single market.
2, Xiaopeng, the mid-end brand positioning advantage is prominent, and the sales of new forces in 2021 are a brother
(Optimistically, sales are expected to reach 200,000 to 250,000 units in 2022.)
As one of the three giants of the new forces, Xiaopeng Automobile's December deliveries soared 181% year-on-year to 16,000 units, topping the list of new forces for the third consecutive month, and also becoming the first new force with sales of 98,155 units in the whole year.
Being able to surpass Weilai and ideal is mainly due to the relatively people-friendly brand positioning of Xiaopeng Automobile. After all, in the domestic auto market, 150,000-300,000 is the strongest price range for purchasing power, and the G3i+P5+P7 product portfolio allows Xiaopeng to cover as many consumer groups as possible.
However, from the perspective of operation, Xiaopeng, whose average bicycle price is only in his early 200,000s, is still far behind Weilai (more than 400,000) and ideal (more than 300,000), which is also reflected in core indicators such as revenue and bicycle gross profit margin. To put it simply, Xiaopeng needs to reach at least 1.8 times the sales volume of Weilai in a single month in order to be equal to Weilai in terms of revenue.
Therefore, for Xiaopeng, the G9 that has entered the 280,000+ price range is a battle that cannot be lost, and only if the G9 succeeds, Xiaopeng can achieve high-quality development.
3, ideal, bicycle sales continue to exceed 10,000, 2022 ushered in new products
(Optimistically, sales are expected to exceed 150,000 units in 2022.)
Recently, the boss Li Xiang just connotated the Volkswagen China CEO "thanks for the spur, continue to work hard", and put on an ideal ONE monthly sales exceeded the sum of Volkswagen's five medium/medium and large SUV sales in China, attracting a crowd of melon-eating masses.
Ideal deliveries in December surged 130% y/y to 14,087 units, bringing full-year deliveries to 90,491 units. It is worth noting that such achievements are achieved by the ideal ONE model, and the ideal ONE has also become the best-selling product in the domestic new energy market of 300,000 yuan + models.
In 2022, ideal will usher in a fully added model X01 equipped with a four-cylinder engine, and the new car will be paired with the ideal ONE to consolidate its advantages in the 300,000+ extended range hybrid market, after all, next year it will face a number of strong opponents such as Lantu and Ziyoujia.
In addition, after the arrival of pure electric products in 2023, the ideal market prospect will become more optimistic.
4, Volkswagen, 2021 100,000 vehicles target has not been completed, 2022 or will be price for volume for growth
(Optimistically, sales are expected to reach 250,000 to 300,000 units in 2022.)
The total sales volume of the five models of the SAIC +FAW-Volkswagen ID. family in December was 13,787 units, and the cumulative delivery volume in 2021 was 70,625 units. Although the absolute number is not low, for Volkswagen, a brand that sells 200,000 vehicles a month in China, this achievement is already quite ugly.
In fact, the Volkswagen brand's ambitions for the electric vehicle market are no smaller than its traditional fuel vehicle market, and it plans to sell 80,000 to 100,000 ID series electric vehicles in the Chinese market in 2021, but later down to 70,000. Judging from the results of 70,625 vehicles in the whole year, it is only barely up to the standard (there are many ID.series electric vehicles in the north and south of Volkswagen that have flowed into the channels of online ride-hailing and large customers).
In 2022, the Volkswagen ID. series will usher in its first full sales year in China and usher in new models. At the same time, the agency system + online booking model of the Volkswagen ID. series may be broken, and the sales model will become diversified. In fact, at present, many dealers have begun to complete the entire sales work offline through tens of thousands of yuan of preferential treatment, and embarked on the "old way" of selling fuel vehicles.
In addition, in order to further enhance the market share to become a mainstream electric vehicle brand, in 2022, the North and South Volkswagen will make certain concessions on the price of ID. series terminals. It is optimistic that the sales volume of the Volkswagen brand in 2022 is expected to reach the range of 250,000-300,000 vehicles, and the ability to surpass the premium is relatively close to Xiaopeng Motors.
5, Weilai, as always stable, 2022 ET5 + ET7 arrival prospects can be expected
(Optimistically, sales are expected to reach 180,000 to 250,000 units in 2022.)
Nio's deliveries rose 49.7% to 10,489 units in December, ranking second among the new forces with 91,429 units sold for the full year. If you look at it purely from the perspective of sales, Weilai seems to be no longer a new force.
But here, we need to pay attention to two more critical factors, the first average price of more than 400,000 yuan Weilai original customer base is narrower than Xiaopeng and other brands. Second, there are no new product deliveries in WEILAI for the whole year of 2021, and there is no new source of increments.
From the perspective of the overall revenue level, Weilai still leads a number of new power brands, and the task of future volume will be handed over to new sub-brands.
In addition, with the delivery of two new models, ET7 (Q1) and ET5 (Q3), NIO's sales in 2022 will achieve a relatively high growth rate, and it is expected that annual sales are expected to reach 160,000 to 250,000 units.
6. The new forces are divided into waist camps, Nezha and Zero Run are rising, and Weima is lagging behind
After talking about the new forces head camp, we may wish to look at the new forces in the waist.
Since the second half of 2021, Nezha and Zero Run have begun to rise strongly, while Weima, which previously threatened to enter the new force TOP3, has continued to lag behind.
In December 2021, Nezha and Zero Run achieved 10,127 and 7,807 vehicles respectively, of which Nezha's annual sales reached 69,674 vehicles, second only to Wei Xiaoli. However, Nezha CEO recently said: Considering the brand positioning problem (concentrated in the range of 60,000-160,000), only when the sales volume exceeds two or three times that of Weilai, we can be considered as good as Weilai. So for the company internally, the monthly sales of more than 10,000 are far from the time to celebrate, and we have not done enough. ”
The WM brand, which has not disclosed sales for a long time, sold 5,062 units in December and 44,157 units in the whole year. At present, in the entire waist of the new forces, Weima has begun to lag behind Zero Run and Nezha significantly. Youweima insiders said: We are looking forward to the monthly sales of 8,000-10,000 vehicles as soon as possible.
7, the new brand of traditional car companies began to exert force, and 2022 such as Extreme Krypton may usher in a big outbreak
In addition to the above brands, the new brands incubated by traditional car companies have also begun to gradually develop.
Geely's high-end pure electric brand Krypton delivered 3,796 units in December, and the order volume of this model is already scheduled until May next year. With the expansion of the product line, Extreme Kr will become a force that cannot be ignored in the domestic 200,000+ pure electric market. However, from the perspective of brand positioning, although Extreme Krypton claims a high-end pure electric brand, there is still a certain gap between its premium ability and Weilai.
Another high-profile brand, Landu (Dongfeng Motor's high-end new energy vehicle brand), delivered 3,330 units in December, with a cumulative delivery of 6,791 units since August. Although the monthly data for December is good, overall, Lantu is still some distance away from the previously set goal of accumulating 10,000 vehicles in 2021.
epilogue:
In 2022, with the further improvement of the penetration rate of new energy, and more and more high-quality supplies entering the market, the competition in the entire new energy vehicle market will become more intense.
The current market pattern is only staged, and there may be a relatively large ranking change next year.
For all car companies in it, only by continuing to provide more competitive products, better services and more user rights and interests can it be possible to gain a firm foothold in the blue ocean competition of the new energy market, achieve sustainable development, and lay a good foundation for the future stage of Red Sea competition.