According to micro-network news, the Boston Consulting Group has done research on the penetration rate change of a variety of technology product iterations, which is basically in line with the S-curve model. According to Huatai research, the acceleration point of the penetration S-shaped curve is more likely to appear at about 10%, that is, when the penetration rate of a consumer product reaches 10%, the penetration rate will accelerate until after 60%.
Norway is the country with the earliest and highest penetration rate of electric vehicles in the world, and its electric vehicle penetration curve has certain reference significance. The penetration rate of electric vehicles in Norway was 5.7% in 2013, and since then it has accelerated, and the penetration rate of electric vehicles in Norway has increased from less than 1% to 5.7% in the five years from 2008 to 2013, and from 5.7% to 49.1% in the five years from 2013 to 2018. It continued to accelerate in the next two years, with penetration exceeding 70% in 2020.
Looking back at 2021, the total sales volume of New Energy Passenger Vehicle terminals in China showed a continuous sharp upward trend, with sales of 431,900 units in the first quarter, with a market penetration rate of 7.96%, and by the third quarter, sales increased to 752,200 units, and the market penetration rate also increased to 15.80%.
According to the data recently released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to reach a new high, with a cumulative output of more than 3 million vehicles and sales of nearly 3 million vehicles. In November, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 17.8%, which continued to be higher than that of the previous month, of which the market penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 19.5%.
According to the characteristics of the S-type penetration curve, after the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reaches 10% this year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles may accelerate in the next few years, which means that the development of China's new energy automobile industry will increase rapidly. In 2021, when electrification accelerates, many car companies will accelerate the transformation of intelligent electrification. Under the background of intensified electrification competition, 2022 will undoubtedly become a key year for the new pattern of the global automotive industry.
BMW: Accelerating the pace of electrification in China
On December 16, BMW China held an online annual meeting. Looking forward to 2025, the BMW Group will accelerate the three strategic transformations of digitalization, electrification and sustainable development in China.
BMW's pace of electrification is the fastest growing of the three traditional luxury car companies in the BBA, and one of the key reasons is the importance it attaches to the Chinese market.
At the online annual meeting with "Home in China", Dr. Peter, Director of Global Finance of the BMW Group, said: "Every time I come to this great country, I feel like home. ”
According to its disclosure, in 2022, bmw group will usher in the opening of three new or upgraded plants in Shenyang and Zhangjiagang, and put into production the second BMW pure electric vehicle in Shenyang, pure electric 3 series, further enhancing China's status as one of the three major new energy vehicle production bases of BMW Group in the world.
It is not difficult to see that the BMW Group intends to accelerate the pace of electrification in China. To this end, the BMW Group has upgraded its strategy in China and presented it in digital form.
Specifically, in bmw Group's China strategy, "1" refers to the principle of "China First"; "2" refers to the fact that both BMW and MINI brands are rooted in China; "3" refers to the firm transformation along the three directions of electrification, digitalization and sustainability; "4" refers to the four R&D and digital bases in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenyang and Nanjing; "5" refers to the five BMW pure electric models that will be presented to Chinese customers in 2022; "2025" Represents the upcoming "new generation" models in 2025; "200 million" and "1.5" represent the BMW Group's carbon reduction targets to 2030 and commitment to the 1.5 degree temperature control target of the Paris Agreement, respectively.
Mercedes-Benz: The year of EQ, electric first
In addition to BMW, Mercedes-Benz is also emphasizing the importance of the Chinese market. 2021 is mercedes-Benz's "year of EQ".
On the evening of April 18, on the eve of the Shanghai Auto Show, Mercedes-Benz held a special press conference called "Mercedes-EQ Night", indicating that Mercedes-Benz practiced "electric first" attitude.
Mercedes-Benz rarely launched three pure electric vehicles in China at the same time, the new EQS pure electric sedan, EQA pure electric SUV ushered in the Chinese debut; the new EQB pure electric SUV also debuted in China worldwide; in addition, Mercedes-Benz also launched the VISION AVTR concept car.
In December, Mercedes-Benz EQS was officially released, which is a new model created by Mercedes-Benz basically on the pure electric EVA platform, Mercedes-Benz company knows that the entire industry is currently undergoing earth-shaking changes, under the trend of new energy, major brand car companies have also stepped into the pure electric era. Therefore, Mercedes-Benz plans to manufacture all new models on pure electric platforms from 2025 and is fully prepared for full electrification in 2030.
For Mercedes-Benz, behind the rapid entry of EQS into China is its vision of deep integration of the entire Chinese new energy industry and luxury car market.
Toyota: 30 pure electric models are already on the road
Unlike Ashkenazi brands, Japanese brands are slightly cautious about electrification. As one of the leaders of Japanese cars, Toyota's series of models are still mainly fuel vehicles, supplemented by hybrid models.
However, 2021 may become the first year of Toyota's electrification. On December 14, 2021, Toyota announced its electrification strategy: by 2030, Toyota will spend 4 trillion yen ($35 billion) on the development of electric vehicles, and by 2030 Toyota will launch 30 pure electric vehicles, which will reach 3.5 million annual sales worldwide, accounting for 1/3 of the global pure electric vehicle market.
Among them, the Lexus brand will only sell pure electric vehicles in Europe, North America and China in 2030, and by 2035, Lexus will become a pure electric brand in the world.
It is worth mentioning that in September 2021, Toyota also announced the 2030 battery strategy. Toyota will invest about 1.5 trillion yen in the research and development of power batteries and the improvement of the battery supply chain, of which about 1 trillion yen will be used to expand battery production capacity, including expanding the battery production line to 70. If the popularity of pure electric vehicles exceeds expectations, Toyota will increase its annual battery production capacity from the previous expectation of 180GWh to more than 200GWh.
Cadillac: Don't sell the tram and quit
After the Biden administration came to power, the electrification transformation of American auto companies accelerated. According to GM's electric vehicle development plan announced on November 19, 2021, it will invest $27 billion (about 180 billion yuan) in pure electric vehicles and autonomous driving in the next five years, and launch 30 pure electric models around the world, covering all its brands including Cadillac, GMC, Buick, and Chevrolet.
Cadillac also said that the brand plans to focus on electrified models next, and plans to fully switch to electrification in 2030, of which the first electric SUV model, LYRIQ, has announced that it will be launched in the first quarter of 2022, and the car will also land in the Chinese market at the same time.
It is worth mentioning that in order to promote the electrification transformation, Cadillac has spent a lot of effort on sales channels. In September 2021, Cadillac proposed to 800 dealers in the United States that each dealer must invest at least $200,000 in electric vehicle infrastructure to prepare for future sales of electric vehicles. However, according to statistics, about 50% of Cadillac dealers in the United States sell less than 50 vehicles a year, which means that it is difficult for them to recover costs within a reasonable time, so some dealers with low sales and remote locations are unwilling to cooperate with Cadillac to make electric vehicle-related investments.
However, Cadillac also showed a firm determination to electrify and launched a "dissuaded" program. Mahmoud Samara, Vice President of Cadillac North America, said Cadillac wants to accelerate the development of electric vehicles and ensure that dealers are ready for accelerated electrification, and subsidy dissuasionrs are the best choice for dealers who are skeptical of electrification.
ford
Compared with GM's electrification development plan, Ford invests more and thinks more about the long term. On May 26, 2021, Ford Motor announced at its Capital Markets Day that its electrification business expenditure forecast for 2025 will be raised to more than $30 billion (about 200 billion yuan). At the same time, Ford motor also plans to fully transition to electrification, and by 2030, pure electric vehicle sales will account for 40% of total sales.
Regarding the opportunities for electrification, Jim Farley, Ceo of Ford, who took office last year, said, "This is the best growth opportunity for Ford in terms of business growth and value creation since Henry Ford's large-scale mass production of the Ford Model T." We are fully committed to seizing this opportunity. ”
In February, Ford motor companies announced a $22 billion investment in electric vehicles, of which about $7 billion has been invested since 2016.
Under Jim Farley's leadership, upgrading Ford's intelligent connected technology has also been a top priority for the automaker. According to the plan, the total number of vehicles equipped with OTA technology is expected to surpass Tesla by July 2022 and will continue to expand; by the end of 2028, there will be 33 million Ford and Lincoln brand cars worldwide that can achieve OTA upgrades.
Geely: Two Blue Geely Action Plans
Under the global electrification pattern, compared with German, Japanese and American brands, China's electric vehicles can be described as a big early rise, but some traditional independent brand companies have only formulated strategies in 2021 and significantly transformed into electrification.
Geely is one of them. In Geely's view, the industry change has just begun, and in the critical period of transformation and change, the strategy is very important. In 2021, based on the changes in the global automotive industry and the application environment, Geely formed two blue Geely action plans. It not only retains Geely's advantages in the field of intelligent energy-saving and new energy vehicles, but also opens up a new situation of intelligent pure electric vehicles.
On March 23, 2021, Geely Automobile officially announced its pure electric plan and announced that after the preliminary product layout, It has established a krypton company responsible for the promotion of specific electric business. Adhering to the concept of openness, integration and co-creation, JiKr focuses on forward-looking technology research and development in the field of intelligent pure electricity, builds an intelligent automobile ecosystem, realizes the deep integration of user ecology and industrial ecology, and creates a perfect technology trend experience for users.
An Conghui, CEO of Extreme Kr, said: "Geely Automobile will firmly promote the rapid development of the two blue Geely action plans, and create core competitiveness in the field of intelligent energy saving and new energy and intelligent pure electricity. Adhering to user thinking and innovation awareness, adhering to cutting-edge technology, innovating business models, building user ecology, forming a diversified cross-border team, creating a global high-end trend technology brand, and promoting the transformation and upgrading of China's automobile industry. ”
GAC Group: Based on EVs, it takes into account BOTH PHEV and HEV
At the automotive forum in early September, Feng Xingya, general manager of GAC Group, announced that GAC Group plans to achieve vehicle sales of 3.5 million vehicles in 2025, accounting for more than 25% of new energy vehicle sales; of which independent brand sales reach 1 million units, fully realize electrification, and strive to achieve 50% of independent brands for new energy vehicles and 100% of new energy vehicles.
In terms of electrification, GAC's technical route is: based on EVs (electric vehicles), taking into account the development of PHEV (plug-in hybrid) and HEV (hybrid), and appropriately reserve FCV (fuel cell vehicle) technology for the future.
The direction of BEV (battery-powered vehicles) is the mainstream development direction of new energy vehicles of GAC Group, and the goal is to build the best electric vehicles in China and even in the world. In order to give full play to the ultimate performance of electric vehicles and the outstanding advantages of space and intelligence, GAC has abandoned the old road of the hybrid oil-electric platform and created a pure electric exclusive platform GEP, which has developed to the second generation and will be further rapidly iterated in the future.
GAC Motor Group plans to electrify all models by 2025, of which PHEV products are a very important component. In terms of FCV, GAC has followed the national development strategy to clarify its own path. According to the plan, small-batch experimental demonstration operations of fuel cell vehicles will begin in 2021, and more than 500 demonstration operations and verifications will be carried out in key areas of the Greater Bay Area from 2023 onwards.
Looking forward to 2022, a key year for the new global automotive landscape
Taking history as a mirror, we can know the rise and fall. Since its birth in 1885, the world's automotive industry has undergone three transformations and three shifts of centers. At the beginning of the 20th century, Ford introduced the assembly line production model to make the American automobile industry rise; in the 1950s, Germany developed from a single, standardized model to a differentiated production and sales model to meet the personalized needs of consumers and revived the European automobile industry; in the 1970s, Japan seized the opportunity of "world energy shortage" to launch small-displacement, low-energy products, and the rise of Japanese brands; in 2009, China topped the world's largest automobile market, and the scale of production and sales ranked first in the world. Independent brands have gradually grown into a "new force" in the field of global automobile industry, and finally formed a pattern of "three legs standing tall" in Germany, Japan and the United States, and China's big but not strong. After 7 years of development, the domestic new energy automobile industry chain has taken off rapidly, and international leading enterprises such as Ningde Times have been born in the core power battery field.
2021 is a difficult year for the global automotive industry, "lack of core" led to a global production cut, "bulk price increases" led to serious damage to profits. At the same time, 2021 is another year of accelerated change, the new energy vehicle outlet is blown from China and Europe to the United States, the penetration rate of L2-level ADAS has increased rapidly, and Chinese companies have gradually emerged with the priority layout in the field of intelligent electric vehicles.
In the global electric vehicle market in 2021, China is one step ahead, Europe is lagging behind, the United States is the eve of the outbreak, and Japan is slightly later in transformation. With the penetration rate breaking through the acceleration point of 10% and further improving, 2022 is undoubtedly a key year for various car companies.
(Proofreading/New)
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