New energy vehicles this year: the whole industry chain of power batteries "crazy" expansion

There is a little red in the evergreen bush, and it is most appropriate to use this sentence to describe the 2021 year of China's new energy vehicles that are thick and thin and advancing by leaps and bounds.

In 2021, the auto market suffered a "cold winter", and the soaring new energy vehicle market has become a gratifying "touch of spring". The penetration rate has increased rapidly, the discourse power of the industrial chain has been continuously improved, the high-end and low-end have blossomed in an all-round way, and the brand premium has continued to increase... China's new energy vehicle sales have been the world's top for 6 consecutive years, and on the track of new energy, it has achieved a transcendence that cannot be achieved in the era of internal combustion engines, completely rewriting the global automobile industry pattern, and also becoming one of the important starting points for China to achieve the goal of "double carbon".

From January to August 2021, China's new energy vehicle penetration rate increased for eight consecutive months, and after a slight decline in September and October, it returned to a high of 17.8% in November, while in 2020 this figure was only 5.8%.

The outbreak of production and marketing corresponds to the huge growth of market demand, and the entire industrial chain has opened a round of "bottom-up" surge.

The power battery manufacturing link led by the Ningde era has set off a wave of expansion in the material links such as positive electrode, negative electrode, diaphragm and electrode liquid, and with the continuous release of production capacity, it has directly driven the rise in the price of "new energy" metals such as lithium and cobalt, the most upstream raw materials, and continuous feedback to the capital market.

If the focus of the capital market in 2020 is focused on the medical device industry, then the new energy automobile industry is the deserved protagonist this year.

Annual penetration rate or more than 15%

During the period from 2018 to 2020, domestic new energy vehicle sales fell first and then increased, and the total change was not obvious, the low point was 1.205 million units in 2019, and the high point was 1.367 million units in 2020.

By 2021, the slope of the growth curve will be significantly magnified, and in just 7 months, it will surpass the level of the whole year of 2020.

By November, the cumulative sales volume in 2021 had reached 2.99 million vehicles, an increase of nearly 170% year-on-year, and there was no suspense in exceeding 3 million vehicles in the whole year. This figure far exceeded the catechamuni's previous expectation of 2.4 million vehicles.

The release of new energy vehicles is the result of the joint action of many factors.

On the policy side, this year is the year when specific measures are implemented after the "double carbon" target is clarified. Driven by the transformation of the green economy, the support policies for the new energy automobile industry have been continuously increased.

On the demand side, the overall improvement of the energy density and performance of the power battery, as well as the continuous layout and improvement of the power exchange mode and charging pile, have alleviated the problem of electric vehicle mileage anxiety to a certain extent, and the market demand has successfully switched from the previous policy-driven type to the market-oriented growth this year.

On the supply side, a hundred flowers are blooming, traditional car companies, new car-making forces, Internet and electronic hardware enterprises are gathered, and the industry's leading enterprises are continuously combined.

The most direct impetus is that consumers can get a better driving experience and intelligent experience at a lower driving cost, which in turn further strengthens the growth of the demand side.

Every time there is a technological change, there is a general resistance among vested interests, and in the context of the trend of new energy vehicles this year, the attitude of traditional car companies has also begun to change from wait-and-see.

Toyota, a pioneer in hydrogen fuel cells, released its first pure electric vehicle, the bZ4X, this year, and plans to invest $35 billion in electric vehicle research and development by 2030, and Lexus will transform into a pure electric brand. Subaru, which is also part of the "Toyota series", released the SOLTERRA, which is a sister model of each other, this year.

On the other hand, luxury brands are also maintaining market share by launching more new energy models in the face of declining domestic sales. Among them, BMW's new energy vehicle deliveries exceeded 32,000 units in the first three quarters of this year, an increase of 57.4% year-on-year, and Mercedes-Benz released its flagship electric vehicle product EQS at the end of the year.

Driven by the above-mentioned parties, the penetration rate of domestic new energy vehicles has increased rapidly.

In 2020, the overall penetration rate of domestic new energy vehicles is 5.8%, and in 2021, if it is estimated according to the sales data of more than 3 million vehicles, the overall penetration rate this year is expected to exceed 15%.

According to the expectations of some institutions, the target of 20% penetration rate of domestic new energy vehicle sales in 2025 is likely to be achieved ahead of schedule in 2022.

From the perspective of product and consumption structure, there are at least some more explicit increments.

In the first half of the year, domestic new energy vehicles also maintained a "spindle-shaped" state, and the top models sold were concentrated in models of more than 200,000 yuan such as Tesla Model 3, and models below 50,000 yuan such as Wuling Hongguang MINIEV.

In other words, the consumption range of 100,000 to 200,000 yuan as the main force is relatively blank, but in the second half of the year, BYD began to increase rapidly, and the monthly sales of Qin PLUS DM-i and Song PLUS DM-i have exceeded 10,000 vehicles, becoming the most powerful competitor in the above price range.

In the future, with the sinking of new energy vehicle prices and the abundance of product supply, the penetration rate will continue to maintain rapid growth.

The whole industry chain of power batteries is "crazy" to expand production

Of the nearly 3 million units sold in the first 11 months, pure electric vehicles accounted for about 80%, and another 20% were plug-in hybrid vehicles.

However, no matter which type is inseparable from the power battery, it and the drive motor, electronic control system is regarded as the "three major pieces" of new energy vehicles, and has become the focus of the industry and capital market this year.

A simple comparison of data. Sales of new energy vehicles have increased by nearly 170%, should the loading volume of power batteries also increase by the same amount?

The actual data performance is almost the same. In the first 11 months of this year, the total output of domestic power batteries was 188.1GWh, a cumulative increase of 175.5% year-on-year; the cumulative loading volume in the same period was 128.3GWh, an increase of 153.1% year-on-year.

Stimulated by the expansion of total demand, the Ningde era, which occupies half of the domestic market, and other power battery head companies announced a series of expansion plans during the year.

According to the research agency SNEResearch data, CATL installed capacity of 60.9GWh in the first three quarters of this year, the global market accounted for 31.2%, ranking first, the leading position is very stable, and the company's planned production capacity is at least 520GWh.

In addition, AVIC Lithium Battery plans to have a production capacity of 300GWh in 2025; Ewell Lithium Energy has increased its production capacity of power and energy storage batteries for 8 times this year, with a total production capacity of about 170GWh; And Hive Energy has officially released the "600" strategy and four major support strategies for 2025, announcing that the company's global capacity planning target for 2025 will be increased to 600GWh.

Compared with this year's power battery production, the above expansion plan is not crazy, but it also reflects the great confidence of industrial capital in the future development of new energy vehicles under the promotion of the "double carbon" strategy.

Ouyang Minggao, one of the most authoritative experts in the domestic new energy automobile industry. He said at the media communication meeting of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, "It is estimated that China's new energy vehicle sales will be between 7 million and 9 million in 2025, and roughly 17 million to 19 million in 2030." ”

Matching with the power battery, it is also under the expansion cycle in the material link.

Taking lithium iron phosphate batteries as an example, this year's loading volume exceeds that of ternary batteries, and is expected to continue this trend. Therefore, starting from the second half of the year, the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate of more than 200,000 tons at the level of listed companies has been announced one after another.

In this regard, this newspaper "21 Hard Core Investment Research" had carried out statistics in early November. From August to early November, 10 listed companies planned to invest in the lithium iron phosphate project, excluding Huayou Cobalt, which has not yet determined the investment amount, and the total investment amount of other companies has exceeded 30 billion yuan, involving a total of 2.05 million tons of iron phosphate and 1.01 million tons of annual production capacity of lithium iron phosphate.

At the end of 2020, the annual production capacity of lithium iron phosphate in China was only 200,000 tons, and reached the level of 600,000 to 700,000 tons in November this year.

Among the above-mentioned proposed production capacity, there are also many enterprises with "interdisciplinary" backgrounds, such as Longbai Group, China Nuclear Titanium Dioxide is the leader of the domestic titanium dioxide industry, and the by-product of titanium dioxide production is ferrous sulfate, which can be used to produce iron phosphate after treatment.

In addition, Longbai Group's titanium dioxide production capacity has ranked third in the world and first in Asia, and the future incremental space is limited, and new energy vehicles with growth certainty have become the best breakthrough. As a result, this year, a number of titanium dioxide companies have invariably chosen to build new lithium iron phosphate production capacity.

The expansion of production by enterprises within the industry and the entry of the above-mentioned external enterprises will inevitably lead to the increase of lithium iron phosphate production capacity.

The "new energy system" raw materials are the most beautiful in the year

For the outbreak of demand in the middle and lower reaches, the upstream is obviously underprepared, and under the support of the imbalance between supply and demand and the relatively abundant liquidity, the "new energy system" raw materials have opened a soaring market during the year.

Baichuan Yingfu, a domestic commodity market information provider, has tracked hundreds of commodities. According to the data provided by the agency, as of December 24, the top varieties with the highest increase this year are R142b (873.68%), lithium hexafluorophosphate (414.02%), PVDF powder (385.71%), battery-grade lithium carbonate (378.19%), and industrial-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, PVDF powder and battery-grade PVDF.

Among them, R142b is the raw material for the production of PVDF, PVDF is mainly used for lithium battery cathode binder and diaphragm coating, lithium hexafluorophosphate is the electrolyte raw material for lithium batteries, and lithium carbonate is the direct raw material for lithium iron phosphate.

Compared with the support of liquidity on the overall commodity, the relationship between supply and demand has played a decisive role in the price trend of the above raw materials this year.

PVDF is the most typical. At the same time as the downstream demand is rapidly increased, R142b, which accounts for the highest proportion of its cost and raw material consumption, is the second-generation refrigerant, which is a product on the verge of elimination, and the production of the product implements a strict quota system in China.

In other words, no matter how much the downstream demand increases, the supply of R142b does not have much room for improvement, and can only rely on existing manufacturers to slowly increase the amount.

At the same time, there are only 11 domestic and foreign-funded production enterprises in PVDF, and the specific products are divided into three categories: powder, granules and lithium battery binders, which correspond to the application of coatings, photovoltaics and lithium batteries, respectively, of which the domestic lack of lithium battery-level production capacity has once again aggravated the structural shortage of the product.

The rise of lithium salt products such as lithium carbonate is similar, which is also caused by the lack of upstream supply elasticity.

As mentioned earlier, the total output of domestic power batteries has increased by 175%, but the release speed of the supply side is far from keeping up.

In 2019 and 2020, domestic lithium carbonate production was 169,800 tons and 173,200 tons respectively, while the cumulative output by late December this year was only more than 210,000 tons. In terms of the annual production trend, the volume is mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, and in the second half of the year, with the decline in the production capacity of salt lakes in winter, the output growth rate has slowed down significantly. In addition, the rise from the cost end of lithium concentrate is also very obvious, and restricts the release of lithium salt production capacity.

As the main source of raw materials, Australian mines, during the downturn in lithium prices in 2019, production capacity was cleared, and more long-term agreements were signed in the production mines, and the amount of lithium concentrate available for market-based sale was very small, which further aggravated the price increase.

At the beginning of the year, the lithium concentrate price was only $400, and by late December it had risen to $2350. If converted according to the ratio of 9 tons of lithium concentrate required for each ton of lithium carbonate produced, the direct production cost of lithium carbonate will increase by 112,000 yuan per ton.

It is also affected by the above factors that the domestic price of lithium carbonate has risen sharply from 52,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 255,000 yuan / ton.

It should be pointed out that due to the lack of certainty in the supply side in the short and medium term, the relationship between supply and demand is difficult to alleviate, and the price upward trend is difficult to end.

While the strategic value of lithium ore resources continues to be highlighted, a number of "mine robbery wars" were staged during the year, such as the mutual "interception" between the Ningde era and Ganfeng Lithium Industry, so that the bidding targets eventually fell into the hands of the American lithium industry, and Zijin Mining and Huayou Cobalt acquired the south American salt lake and African lithium mine assets respectively.

In addition, the prices of cobalt and nickel involved in ternary materials also performed well during the year. However, because its past price base and supply and demand contradiction are not as prominent as the above products, the increase in the same period is relatively behind the lithium series products.