"In 2022, total car sales will reach 27.5 million units, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year. Among them, new energy vehicles sold 5 million units, an increase of 47% year-on-year. On December 14, at the 2022 China Auto Market Development Forecast Summit held in Yibin, Sichuan, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "CAAM") made the above judgment on the development of China's auto market next year, and major institutions and car companies also generally have high expectations for next year's auto market, especially new energy vehicles, which are very likely to continue to maintain a high growth trend and become an important growth point for the auto market next year.
China's automobile market is at the end of a short-term adjustment
Caucus china predicts that China's total automobile sales in 2021 may be 26.1 million units, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year. Among them, passenger car sales were 21.3 million units, up 5.6% year-on-year; commercial vehicle sales were 4.8 million units, down 6.4% year-on-year; and new energy vehicle sales were 3.4 million units, up 1.5 times year-on-year. Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and secretary general of the China Automobile Association, said that China's auto market will usher in a better period of development. First of all, a new round of scientific and technological revolution is empowering the transformation of the automobile industry and accelerating the progress toward electrification, networking and intelligence, which is also an important strategic choice to promote green development, support the national "double carbon" goal and high-quality development; secondly, the automobile market prospects are still broad, and the demand is still huge; third, the new development pattern of "double circulation" is accelerating. In addition, the continuous improvement of people's living standards continues to drive the consumption upgrade of the automobile market, and the proportion of high-end automobile sales has increased year by year, which has also brought new development opportunities for automobile companies.
Chen Bin, executive vice president of the China Machinery Industry Federation, said that various situations and trends show that the unfavorable factors affecting the operation of the national economy, such as high raw material prices, tight coal and power supply, and shortage of chips in the automobile industry, will be alleviated and improved in 2022. At the same time, consumption policies and the consumption environment are expected to continue to improve. Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, believes that on the whole, China's automobile market will maintain a moderate growth trend in the future. From the perspective of long-term development, the current Chinese auto market is still in the transition stage from the early stage of popularization to the late stage of popularization, and the sales of new cars have gradually shifted from the incremental market to the stock market. Although China's automobile market has fluctuated in 2018, throughout history, developed countries in automobiles have also fluctuated for about 2 to 4 years in the popularization stage. Judging according to this law, the current production and sales of China's automobile market are at the end of short-term adjustment, and will maintain a moderate growth trend in the future.
Wang Qing, deputy director of the Market Economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that epidemic prevention and control, chip supply and macroeconomic operation will become key factors affecting the operation of the car market next year. "In the absence of major economic fluctuations, the narrowing of the decline in passenger cars that began in the fourth quarter of this year may be the trend." However, in the first quarter of next year, there may be a relatively obvious market growth rate decline process, which is mainly directly related to the year-on-year base change. However, starting from the second half of the year, we judge that the growth rate will slowly rise, and the overall trend will show a trend of low before and high after. Wang Qing said.
The size of the car market in 2022 may reach 27 million vehicles
Caucus predicts that in 2022, total car sales will reach 27.5 million units, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year. Among them, 23 million passenger cars, an increase of 8% year-on-year, and 4.5 million commercial vehicles, down 6% year-on-year. The relevant team of the Market Economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council judged the car market in 2022 that the sales volume was about 27 million vehicles, a year-on-year growth rate of about 3% to 5%. Wang Qing said that the main basis for this judgment is that some of the suppressed demand this year will be gradually released next year; the potential growth rate of automobile demand is in the range of 3% to 4%, and the actual growth rate will return to the potential growth rate. "Considering various favorable and unfavorable factors, our judgment of growth rate is 3% to 5%. Under normal circumstances, the sales growth rate next year will be slightly higher than this year. Wang Qing stressed.
Li Bingyang, director of the Data Department of the Data Resource Center of China Automotive Technology and Research Center Co., Ltd., predicts that the annual vehicle sales in 2022 will be 26.56 million units, an increase of 2.4% year-on-year, of which 22.66 million passenger cars will be sold. In 2022, the supply side of passenger cars will still be affected by the shortage of chips, but under the cyclical law of the market, it will still increase by 5.6% year-on-year for the whole year. The forecasting research of the China Automotive Strategic Development Research Center of Tianjin University used a multivariate regression model for sales forecast analysis, showing that based on the total sales forecast value, the sales volume of China's automobile market in 2021 is 25.22 million units, and in 2022, it is 25.57 million vehicles. Among them, passenger car sales in 2021 were 20.81 million units, 21.39 million units in 2022, commercial vehicles in 2021 were 4.51 million units, 4.17 million units in 2022, and new energy vehicles in 2021 were 3.08 million units, and 4.5 million units in 2022.
Lin Huaibin, head of light vehicle sales forecasting in China at IHS Markit, judged that young cars in 2022 will increase by 4.3% year-on-year. The chip shortage led to a net loss of 1.25 million young cars sold in 2021 and a net loss of about 680,000 units in 2022. Lin Huaibin stressed that the stability factor of the chip must be comprehensively considered in the global political and economic environment, and the impact of the chip on the automotive industry may continue until 2024, and it cannot be too optimistic. The easing of chip supply in individual months in the second half of this year is not enough to show that the chip supply shortage has eased.
Bai Ling, an industry research expert at The Product Planning Department of Chongqing Chang'an, believes that in 2022, the automobile market will increase steadily and slightly, and the competition will be cruel. "Loyal fans" bring small increments in market delay, which is more obvious in the luxury car category; the elimination of marginal enterprises is accelerated, and the market concentration will increase again; the price returns to the market law and begins to explore; the mainstream of the joint venture undertakes competitive pressure, and the price of traditional models is down. In 2022, the retail sales of narrow passenger cars will increase by 6%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 18.9%. Jiang Zhiyong, deputy director of FAW's Liberation Strategy Department, believes that 2022 is a key test for the commercial vehicle market, and the demand for medium and heavy trucks will fall sharply to 1.15 million units, down more than 25% year-on-year; the demand for light trucks will fall slightly to 2.12 million units, down less than 5% year-on-year.
New energy vehicles may increase by 50% next year
New energy vehicles may continue to maintain high growth next year, which is the general judgment of all parties. The China Automobile Association predicts that new energy vehicles are expected to sell 5 million units next year, an increase of 47% year-on-year. Li Bingyang predicts that in 2022, the sales volume of new energy passenger cars will reach 4.8 million units, an increase of 66.1% year-on-year, and the market penetration rate will reach 21.2%. Wang Qing said that in the next 3 to 5 years, the growth rate of the electric vehicle market will maintain a high growth rate of 30% to 50%, and in this development process, the incremental replacement of electric vehicles for fuel vehicles will be significantly accelerated.
Wang Zhenpo, director of the National Engineering Laboratory for Electric Vehicles at Beijing Institute of Technology, judged that before March 2022, the number of new energy vehicles supervised by the national platform will exceed 7 million. As of the beginning of December 2021, this figure is more than 6 million vehicles, that is, in the next three months, new energy vehicle sales will increase by about 1 million. Wang Zhenpo believes that the national strategy, the "double carbon" goal and the "double integral" policy will be the positive factors to promote the sales growth of new energy vehicles. At the same time, factors such as the continuous improvement of charging facilities, the improvement of market acceptance, the continuous enrichment of products and the normalization of domestic epidemic prevention and control will also become favorable factors to promote the growth of new energy vehicles.
Lin Huaibin believes that the development of new energy vehicles in China has ushered in a turning point for fuel vehicles. While the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles is rapidly increasing, the market penetration rate of autonomous driving is also increasing rapidly. If the chip can be stably supplied, the market share of China's new energy vehicles will reach 17% to 18% in 2022.
Bai Ling judged that in 2022, the new energy vehicle market will gradually change from barbell type to spindle shape, and it is expected that in 2022, driven by the compact market, the market share of 100,000 to 200,000 yuan models will gradually increase. Xiong Tianbo, director of BYD's passenger car industry office, judged that there will be local variables in the new energy vehicle market in 2022, but the prospect is promising, "The annual sales of new energy passenger cars are expected to reach 5 million to 5.2 million." The growth of new energy vehicles is in line with the development law of the 'S-shaped curve' and ushers in a new inflection point next year. In this process, under the new cognition of the new wave of domestic products, independent new energy vehicles will continue to rise; at the same time, the camp of new energy vehicles will continue to expand, and diversified products will focus on various segments; the strong attack of the omni-channel era will bring new consumer experiences. ”
Mei Songlin, vice president of strategic operation of WM Motor Group, believes that the current Chinese auto market shows four major trends: the penetration rate of electric vehicles has increased significantly, and the electric vehicle market is close to the inflection point and flashpoint; the proportion of ToB (for commercial users) in the electric vehicle market has decreased significantly; the mainstream market for electric vehicles is rising; and local forces have seized this wave of opportunities, which is an important factor in promoting the rapid development of New Energy Vehicles in China.
Text: Wang Jinyu Editor: Chen Wei Layout: Wang Kun