At the beginning of this year, when Dolphin Jun covered the new energy "Auto Triple Treasure", judging from the perspective of new car delivery rhythm and sales network development, Weilai, which represented the "high-end" new energy vehicle, was too full of short-term valuation and had little opportunity.
In this year's interpretation, Weilai is indeed in the middle of the green and yellow - the new car is only released, no delivery, the change of platform leads to depreciation acceleration, the gross profit margin of the car declines, etc., the stock price continues to be under pressure, and the performance is underperforming its peers.
Source: Longbridge Securities
But Dolphin Jun also believes that these are short-term problems, its brand building and potential energy are still there, still need to pay close attention to its new car release and new car delivery, the opportunity will come again.
This time, NIO DAY with the theme of "Hello World" on December 18 was an important time to pay attention to the pace of WEILAI's new car, and Dolphin Jun specially ran to the scene to do a front-line investigation. First summarize the overall feelings:
1, ET5 seems to have explosive potential
One of the reasons why NIO lost sanbao this year is the lack of new cars (the last car delivered is still the EC6 in September 2020), so the configuration of the new car ET5 released at this conference and the delivery time are crucial.
In dolphin Jun's view, this ET5 price positioning is an entry-level model of Weilai, undertaking the task of "selling explosive models", and it is indeed important to the sales expectations of next year.
And compared with the Xiaopeng P7, Tesla Model 3 high-performance version, and extreme Kr 001, Dolphin Jun believes that ET5 is relatively leading in appearance, pricing, control, interior, auxiliary driving hardware, etc., and the battery life wins because of the flexible upgrade of the battery and the battery pack, and has the potential to explode;
2. "User assetization operation" of hanging peers
NIO DAY is an event held by NIO for car owners, and the sense of atmosphere and belonging felt on the spot is extremely strong, and in terms of user operation, NIO is still invincible.
3. Investment opportunities are approaching, but the best batting points have to wait
The NIO DAY has enhanced the confidence of Longbridge Dolphin Jun in the 2022 and longer dimensions of NIO, but in the short term, the investment has still not reached the best batting point, and may wait for the delivery of ET7 at the end of the first quarter of 2022 and the delivery of ET5 at the end of the third quarter.
The current car market likes pre-sales and is full of expectations, but the iteration speed of smart car updates is very fast, and the delivery that finally falls into the pocket is the last word, so insurance is still waiting for delivery.
The specific content is as follows:
1. How fragrant is ET5?
The release of the new car is the highlight of NIO DAY, but also the focus of market attention, after the appearance of ET5, the reaction on the scene is basically "handsome", "high configuration" and other praise words. Considering that ET5 carries the company's sales growth task next year, Longbridge Dolphin Junjun made a detailed horizontal comparison after the meeting, see the following table, to see how fragrant ET5 is?
Data source: Autohome, the official website of each company, longbridge dolphin research
[1] Price: 328,000 subsidies before the pricing is the lowest price of Weilai, the pricing is friendly, in addition to the battery rental service BaaS, reducing the threshold for car purchase, no cost supplement can save the cost of subsequent car use.
In the BaaS mode, with a 75-degree battery (corresponding to 500 battery life), WEILAI Auto has a battery rental fee + free charging = 980 yuan, and other brands have no battery rental and charging costs.
Assuming that the public charging pile can be replenished by 300 yuan / month, WEILAI will generate 680 * 12 = 8160 yuan of expenditure every year, considering that the cost of battery purchase is 75,000 yuan, 75000/8160 = 9.2 years, which is equivalent to the expectation that within 9 years of a car, weilai ET5 will have a lower cost of replenishment, and more than 9 years, the cost of other models will be lower.
[2] Battery & battery life: P7 and Model3 are better, and NIO wins the mileage anxiety in power exchange and flexible upgrade.
Xiaopeng P7 670N version and Tesla Model 3 high-performance version of the actual endurance are basically above 500, Weilai body is heavier, there is no advantage in battery life.
However, from the perspective of mileage anxiety, the power exchange mode actually saves the time of the unit endurance, and the time of 2 power changes will not exceed the time taken by other models for 1 charge.
In addition, if there is a need for long-distance travel, Weilai Automobile provides a monthly flexible upgrade service, 100-degree battery has been popularized in the replacement power station, and the follow-up 150-degree battery can make the endurance exceed 1000 kilometers (the actual running 700km is not a big problem).
【3】Size: Kr 001 maximum, Model 3 minimum, ET5 center. In the case of similar prices, the body is appropriately enlarged, which can bring consumers a better driving experience and storage space.
The Kr 001 is noticeably better, the Model 3 is noticeably the smallest, and in the P7 and ET5 innings, the P7 is longer than the ET5, but the ET5 is wider and thicker.
[4] Control: P7 pricing is lower and related to a single motor, ET5, Model 3, extreme Kr 001 are dual motors, the gap is not large. ET5, Model 3 high performance, extreme Kr 001 are dual motor four-wheel drive, acceleration performance is basically in 3-4 seconds, so the pricing is also more than 30w yuan, single motor is a major reason for the low price of P7.
[5] Interior: Extreme Kr 001 is the most comfortable, ET5 is more interesting, Tesla is economical wind.
Extreme Kr 001 comes standard with leather seats, heated ventilation massage optional, the largest LCD screen, multi-color atmosphere lights, LongBridge Dolphin Jun to experience the interior of Extreme Kr 001, the comfort is still good.
The highlight of the ET5 is that the mood light can move with the rhythm of the music, which is more youthful and interesting, especially the AR glasses in the car are deliberately opened, "so that there is not so much screen in the car". As for Tesla's interior, it has always been a well-known minimalist style, imitation leather seats, no ventilation massage, monochrome mood lights, etc.
[6] Assisted driving: ET5 hardware has nothing to say, but autopilot is obviously inferior to Tesla. Domestic car companies in chips, lidar and other aspects are embedded and redundant strategies, but on the soft ability of automatic driving, Longbridge Dolphin Jun still believes that Tesla is the first company to achieve automatic driving.
[7] Electric suction door. ET5 bezel-less doors + all electric suction doors once again reflect the positioning of luxury cars, the electric suction door of the Extreme Kr 001 is optional, and the Model 3 and P7 are not equipped with electric suction doors.
【8】Appearance. The aesthetic of Weilai Automobile has always been online, but P7, Model 3 and Extreme Kr 001 are also good-looking models, aesthetic this dimension is a matter of opinion, Longbridge Dolphin Jun believes that the appearance of P7 and ET5 is relatively better.
Overall, Longbridge Dolphin Jun believes that ET5 has the conditions to become a hot car in the face of competitors, whether it is appearance, configuration or price.
As the most entry-level model of Weilai, it also enjoys the first after-sales service of Weilai in the whole market, coupled with the rapid advancement of the construction of the replacement power station, which is enough to attract consumer choice and competitors to pay attention.
In addition to the ET5 car, NIO DAY 2021 also announced the following important delivery-related information:
ET7 will start locking orders on January 20, 2022 (non-refundable) and delivery on March 28, 2022 (previously expected to deliver in the first quarter, which was barely within expectations);
On the day of the ET5 launch, the reservation was accepted, the 2000 yuan deposit was refundable, the Moon theme design kit and the qihui orange caliper were locked, and the delivery was scheduled to start in September 2022;
By the end of 2022, 1300+ substations will be built (733 have been built so far), and in cooperation with gas stations, electricity can be added where refueling can be added;
Second, in addition to car manufacturing, NIO DAY is full of user asset-based operations
The highlight of NIO DAY is the new car launch, but the new car release is not all NIO DAY. In addition to the release of new cars, Longbridge Dolphin Jun also experienced what a veritable user-oriented enterprise should look like, and in terms of user relationship operation, Weilai is currently invincible.
Every year, the site of NIO DAY is the NIO Automobile Organization, the local riders will vote, all the riders vote out, from the birth, NIO DAY is an event for NIO owners.
NIO DAY's admission qualification is mainly based on the "NIO Value", which is the score saved by each user's interaction in the NIO community and contribution to the NIO community. Nio value is linked to voting rights in user community events, and is used to determine the direction of major events and increase the probability of being invited to popular events.
The NIO DAY was held at the Suzhou Olympic Sports Center, and if you choose public transportation to suzhou to participate in the conference, there will be car owners who volunteer to go to the station or airport transfer.
From the entrance of the parking lot of the Olympic Sports Center to the venue where the event is held, there will be guidance from Niolai employees at a certain distance, and the parking lot also provides free energy replenishment services.
In the afternoon before the launch, there was an off-site experience, including snacks provided by the Food Research Institute for free, mulled wine provided by the Micro-Drunk Club for free, points exchanged for NIO DAY special drinks, and various charity stalls organized by NIO owners.
The volunteer car owners who performed their duties during the outfield experience, the souvenirs placed on the seats of the conference, the micro-movie based on the true story of the car owner, the certification of the owner's welfare partner project, the singing of the NIO BAND composed of the owners, and the parking plant full of Weilai cars at the end of the conference, the sense of atmosphere and belonging was full.
Weilai in the brand building, user operation is indeed careful, in the details reflect the purpose of Weilai user first, Weilai's most valuable asset is the owner, with the expansion of the owner group, Weilai's basic disk will become more and more stable.
Third, the point of view update: the opportunity is approaching, but the batting point will have to wait
From NIO DAY to investment after this conference, what impact does NIO DAY have on NIO fundamentals?
Previously, The view of Longbridge Dolphin Jun on Weilai was that there were no new models to boost sales in the short term, delivery was slightly tired, and the platform switch pulled down the gross profit margin, so we believe that Weilai is not the first choice for investment in the second half of 2021. The turning point is likely to remain the same in the first quarter of 2022, when the core focus was on et7 delivery.
ET7 has been nearly a year since the release of the last NIO DAY to the lock order, and Shanshan's late delivery is one of the factors restricting the company's sales to the next level.
The ET7 is the first car of NIO, the first car of the NT2.0 platform, and the first car equipped with lidar, and it does take more time to solve the problems that may be encountered in mass production.
The release of ET5, polished on the basis of ET7, the pace is significantly accelerated, is expected to achieve delivery in September 2022, cash sales is a matter of the fourth quarter, the current market environment and valuation is not enough to put the things in 9 months into the stock price expectations.
And under the "top-down" brand strategy, the existence of ET7 will highlight the cost performance of ET5, carrying the ET5 mission of Weilai Automobile, the company will do its best to ensure the success of this car. Judging from the explosion of a 2,000 yuan deposit, ET5 is not far from success.
In addition, the release of ET5 also made Dolphin Jun vaguely worried about the market demand for ET7, which began to be delivered at the end of the first quarter. The price band positioning of ET7 and ET5 is similar to the relationship between BMW 5 Series and BMW 3 Series, Audi A6L and Audi A4L, from the perspective of BMW Audi model sales, the two price band models have not eroded each other.
However, the current market demand for electric vehicles can not be compared with fuel vehicles, Weilai's brand power is not as strong as BBA, it is possible that the ET5 delivered in the second half of the year will inhibit the release of ET7 sales in the first half of the year, so The longbridge dolphin Jun is still a wait-and-see attitude towards et7 sales.
Summary: The NIO DAY has enhanced the confidence of Longbridge Dolphin Jun in the 2022 and longer dimensions of NIO, but the investment still has not reached the best batting point, at least until the ET7 is delivered first to observe the delivery.
The current automotive market likes pre-sales and is full of expectations, but the iteration speed of smart car updates is very fast, and the delivery that finally falls into the pocket is the last word.
Longbridge Dolphin Jun's in-depth research and follow-up reviews on NIO include:
2021.06.09, Wei Xiaoli Comparative Study - Part I "New Forces of Car Building (Part 1): Throwing at People, Doing the Right Thing, And Discinging a Plate of People and Things of New Forces"
2021.06.23, Wei Xiaoli Comparative Study - Novella "New Forces of Car Manufacturing (Middle): Market Enthusiasm Has Decreased, What Do the Three Fools Rely on to Consolidate Their Position? 》
2021.06.30, Wei Xiaoli Comparative Study - Next "New Forces of Car Building (Part 2): Doubled in Fifty Days, Three Fools Can Continue to Run Wildly"
2021.08.12, 2021 Second Quarterly Report Comments "Farewell to the Outbreak Period, What Does weilai's future rely on?" 》
2021.08.15, 2021 Secondary Report View Update "NIO: High Valuation vs Low Delivery, Beware of the "Future" in Front of You"
2021.11.09, 2021 third quarterly report review "Weilai: "Ankle Chop", the first half of next year staged squat jump? 》
2021.11.10, 2021 Third Quarterly Report Meeting Minutes "NIO: No Need to Worry Too Much about Phased Delivery Stalls and Gross Margin Pressure (Meeting Minutes)"