At the beginning of 2022, the major new energy vehicle manufacturers can't wait to show their report cards, and several deliveries are like chicken blood.
At the same time as the car companies show their muscles, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2022 will be introduced as scheduled, and the subsidies will decline. Therefore, this long bridge dolphin jun mainly to take stock of the delivery background of each family and look forward to the subsidy policy in 2022.
Here's a summary that's too long to look at:
What are the delivery results of new energy vehicles in January and December?
Most of the results that seem to be hanging on the sky are within expectations, and occasionally a few such as "Xiao Li", the results exceed expectations are a bit serious. Through the comparison of the data of various car companies, Longbridge Dolphin Jun can obviously feel the stage of rapid increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the sunrise characteristics of the track - a hundred flowers blooming, a hundred schools of contention; moreover, in 2022, new cars will continue to be released intensively, which has laid the foundation for the high growth of the new energy vehicle market in 2022.
2. How to interpret the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2022?
The subsidy decline itself is a bearish event, but the market has long been expected, coupled with some of the policies this time there are elements that exceed expectations, so it is a good thing that the Longbridge Dolphin Jun characterized the event as a bearish cash.
The support on the policy side will provide some support for sales in 2022, and the market expectation will be raised from 5-5.5 million vehicles in December to 6-6.5 million vehicles.
And the strong sales forecast in 2022, if it is cashed in, then the subsidy is fully withdrawn, it may overdraft the demand of 2023 in advance, and if there is no cost of technology or materials, the new energy vehicle market may face certain pressure in 2023.
However, if the cost side can usher in the era of parity like the photovoltaic industry through the scale sales + parts standardization behind the single-car explosion, new energy vehicles will truly enter the stage of market-oriented and healthy development.
First, December report card: a hundred flowers blooming, the confidence of high growth in 2022
Industry data has not yet been released, and Longbridge Dolphin Jun takes data on behalf of enterprises to observe industry changes. It is mainly divided into five types of car companies, namely the first-line car-making new forces composed of Wei Xiaoli, the second-line car-making new forces represented by Tesla, BYD, Zero Run and Nezha, and the new energy brands under traditional car companies.
Data source: Company announcement, Longbridge Dolphin Research Collation
The above table is a list of data, and below we elaborate on each type of car company (Tesla China data has not yet been released):
1. The first-line new force of Yuyue Longmen: Wei Xiaoli is one step away from 100,000 years of sales, and Xiaopeng won the championship as scheduled
According to wei xiaoli's fourth-quarter sales outlook given in November, the delivery data of the three companies in December was around 0.9-1.1 million units. The actual delivery data only fell within expectations, while Xiaopeng and Ideal both greatly exceeded expectations.
Of course, since the beginning of this year, the general routine of new energy vehicle companies is: to give guidance - performance exceeds the guidance - to raise the expectation of the next period, therefore, the current expectation is the normal expectation of the market to be "habitual" by the routine.
And the point of "Xiao Li" exceeding expectations this time is mainly that it is a little too exaggerated: Xiaopeng's guidance ceiling in December was 11,000 vehicles, which actually exceeded 45%! The ideal guidance cap is also 11,000 vehicles, which is actually more than 28%.
Data source: company announcement, Longbridge Dolphin Research
(1) Xiaopeng: Everything is for the popularization of new energy vehicles
From the monthly sales of auto three treasures, it can be seen that Xiaopeng completely broke out in the second half of the year and finally won the championship as scheduled. Looking back, its 3-4 quarters of strength are mainly related to products and channels:
More friendly pricing: the company launched lower-priced versions of the G3 and P7 for lithium iron phosphate, and began delivering P5s starting at less than 20w (5,030 units delivered in December, and also launched a "first pick up, post-mount radar" delivery model);
Joining each other, channels soaring: In line with the company's corporate strategy of "popularizing smart electric vehicles", the company's terminal sales channels have been rapidly rolled out. Xiaopeng is currently the only car company in "Wei Xiaoli" that adopts the "direct operation + franchise" model, and the commission of franchise stores has begun to be reflected in the financial report of the second quarter.
By the end of November 2021, the company had 311 physical stores in 121 cities, and the company's annual target for 2021 was 350 stores.
Data source: Company announcement, Longbridge Dolphin Research
(2) Ideal: All practical in order to make large sales
It is also rare to rely on a single model to achieve annual sales of more than 90,000 vehicles. We still interpret it from two aspects: products and channels:
Product: The ideal ONE is indeed a model that deeply understands the needs of users, and it is also very cost-effective from the pricing point of view.
In addition, as a hybrid model, the range extender is naturally more suitable for cold weather areas such as the north, and its national universality is better than that of pure electric models, so the layout of the ideal store in the country is more uniform than that of Xiaopeng and Weilai.
Channel: Although the final volume is not as good as Xiaopeng, the company's store expansion in the 3-4 quarters has accelerated significantly, and by the end of 2021, the company has 206 stores in 102 cities.
(3) "High cold" Weilai wants to fall behind?
Compared with Xiaopeng and Ideal, Weilai's explosive features are significantly weaker under the pricing of "high cold". The three models currently on sale, the ES6, delivered 4,939 units in December, less than 5,000 units.
ES 6 and EC6 at the same price point, starting at more than 340,000 (after subsidies), ES8 starting at more than 450,000, and Xiaopeng's most expensive model P7 has a starting price of only 220,000, and the ideal fixed price is 338,000. It is also reasonable that more expensive models will sell lower.
From the perspective of cost performance, WEILAI Weilai price includes more services it provides in the future, and the higher gross profit margin supports the subsequent provision of more services, and ordinary consumers may not understand or accept it.
And at the juncture of the subsidy for new energy vehicles, Tesla raised the price early in December, Xiaopeng gave consumers a 10-day transition period, and Weilai chose to transfer the amount of the slope to consumers after March 31, 2022, which shows its vehicle sales pressure.
However, Longbridge Dolphin Jun once again stressed that after a period of downturn, WEILAI may usher in opportunities in 2022, such as the delivery of ET7 at the end of March, the delivery of the people-friendly ET5 in September, and the possible launch of the Gemini brand in the middle of the market.
For a more detailed judgment of opportunities for Weilai, you can refer to the latest viewpoint update of the Longbridge Dolphin Jun on December 21, ""Explosive Body" ET5 debuts, and Weilai wants to rekindle the "future"".
2. Second-line new forces: "Rise" is the main chord law
The rise of new forces in second-tier car manufacturing is also an important feature of the car market in 2021, taking zero running and Nezha as examples:
Zero-run cars sold less than 2,000 units in January at the beginning of 2021 and nearly 80 million units in December by the end of the year (4.6 times sales in January);
Nezha Automobile sold slightly more than 2,000 vehicles in January at the beginning of 2021, and ranked among the 10,000 units sold every month from November to December at the end of the year (December sales were 4.6 times that of January sales);
Compared with the first-line Wei Xiaoli (the sales volume in December at the end of the year is 1.5-2.5 times the sales volume in January at the beginning of the year), its month-on-month growth rate and the current absolute sales volume constitute an important player in the new energy vehicle market.
3, BYD: "battery + price reduction" double king fried, 2021 new energy delivery of the strongest king
BYD delivered 93,000 vehicles in December, and the cumulative delivery volume in 2021 exceeded 600,000 vehicles (an increase of 219% year-on-year).
Since May this year, BYD has basically increased its sales rate of 10,000 units per month, exceeding expectations month by month, while a number of new forces and traditional car companies are still celebrating the monthly delivery of 10,000 vehicles to the threshold, BYD has been sprinting to the goal of 100,000 monthly sales.
And according to the feedback of consumers who ordered byding BYD Song Plus DM-i models, "the relationship plus money will also be picked up after 4 months." Therefore, Longbridge Dolphin Jun believes that it is a high probability event that BYD's sales will continue to remain strong next year.
4, traditional car factories: hard work "catch up", 2022 waiting for a miracle
The traditional car companies' electric vehicles counted by Changqiao Dolphin Jun mainly include brands such as the North-South Volkswagen ID series, Geely Krypton, GAC E-An, and Great Wall Euler, which mainly present the following characteristics:
The monthly sales of the four sample car companies showed an overall upward trend, among which the monthly sales of the North-South Volkswagen ID series, great wall Euler, and GAC Aean were basically stable between 10,000 and 15,000 units;
Geely Kr delivered 3,796 units in December, with a cumulative delivery of 6,007 units in 21 years, which was less than the company's previously disclosed delivery target of 7,000 vehicles. The negative news of Kr in terms of marketing, delivery and other aspects has not improved, and it will continue to track the sales of Kr 001 and the mass production of new models in 2022;
Traditional car companies started late compared with new forces, BYD and other new energy car companies, and there are more transformation constraints, but with the extreme Kr 001, SAIC Zhiji's jiaozhiji and its new energy brands have been on the right track.
In 2021, traditional car companies still seem to be taking the tactics of the sea of cars, relying on rapid new and many models to impact total sales, and there are fewer influential explosive models.
However, under the pressure of fuel consumption assessment and competitors, they are now gradually on the right track of transformation, and in 2022, they will experience a process of sales climbing and intensive release of new models, which is expected to be an important increase in the new energy vehicle market in 2022.
Summary: Tesla has not yet released wholesale data for Chinese factories and retail sales data for the Chinese market, but it is not expected to be bad. The above data have reflected the prosperity of China's new energy vehicle market with a hundred flowers and a hundred schools of thought, and the new car will continue to be released intensively in 2022, which has laid the foundation for the high growth of the new energy vehicle market in 2022.
However, in the recent stock price adjustment of the new energy vehicle sector, Changqiao Dolphin Jun believes that the core reason is that the valuation is high, and the correction is healthier.
Among them, there are also some concerns about fundamentals, such as the gradual transmission of the price increase of upstream raw materials represented by lithium to the downstream, which is detrimental to the profitability of the industrial chain; for example, the decline of subsidies affects profitability or sales.
On December 31, 2021, the four ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022", and the following Long bridge Dolphin Jun will interpret the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2022.
Second, the new policy of subsidies for new energy vehicles in 2022: small exceeds expectations, and the bearish cash is cashed
There are three main points of the subsidy policy in 2022:
(1) Subsidies decline as scheduled: the subsidy standard in 2022 will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021, and new energy vehicles in the public sector such as urban buses and road passenger transport will decline by 20% on the basis of 21 years;
(2) Clarify the termination date of the subsidy: vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized;
(3) Cancel the upper limit of the subsidy scale: The policy at that time in 2020 was clear that "in principle, the upper limit of the subsidy scale is about 2 million vehicles per year", and the policy will relax the subsidy scale from the original expected upper limit of the subsidy scale of 2 million units, and implement the subsidy throughout 2022.
In this regard, the views of the Longbridge Dolphin Jun are as follows:
(1) The overall policy is smaller than expected. Among them, the first two points are consistent with the previously released policies, and the release of the subsidy ceiling of 2 million vehicles is the core point that exceeds expectations. On the eve of the full withdrawal of subsidies in 2023, the upper limit of subsidies will be relaxed, and it is expected that there will be a significant rush/buy at the end of 2022, strengthening the sales growth expectations in 2022.
(2) The amount of subsidies has declined, and subsidies will be fully withdrawn in 2023, and the expected bearish cash will be realized. The pure motorcycle subsidy was reduced by 4,000 to 6,000 yuan, and the amount of bicycle subsidy after the slope was 0.9-13,000 yuan; the plug-in model was about 2,000 yuan, and the subsidy amount was about 5,000 yuan after the slope.
The amount of the slope is relatively absolute, the impact is limited, but after all, it is a negative impact, and after a year, when the subsidies are all withdrawn in 2023, the impact on car companies will be more intense.
In addition, the impact of subsidy decline on car companies is mainly manifested in sales and profitability, and the core looks at whether the amount of subsidy decline is borne by car companies or consumers. Car companies bear the loss of profits, consumers bear the loss of sales.
At present, most car companies have transferred subsidies to consumers, but there is a difference between whether there is a transition period, such as Tesla raised the price of cars in December, Xiaopeng and Weilai chose to transfer to consumption after January 10 and March 31, respectively;
Source: Government documents, Longbridge Dolphin Research Institute
(3) The sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2022 is expected to be raised
In 2022, the new energy passenger car sales forecast of the Association will be raised from 4.8 million units to 5.5 million units (penetration rate of 25%), and the sales of new energy vehicles will be raised from 5 million units + 6 million units (penetration rate of 22%);
When Dolphin Jun counted the expectations of securities companies in November and December, their expectations for new energy vehicle sales in 2022 were roughly concentrated at about 5 million to 5.5 million, while the recent statistics to the market expectations were generally raised to 6 million to 6.5 million.
Summary: The policy is smaller than expected, and the expected bearishness is cashed. This supports sales in 2022, with market expectations raised from 5-5.5 million units to 6-6.5 million units.
However, the strong sales volume in 2022 has an overdraft component of 2023 demand, and if there is no cost of technology or materials to explore, the new energy vehicle market may face some pressure in 2023.
However, if the cost side can usher in the era of parity like the photovoltaic industry, new energy vehicles will truly enter the stage of market-oriented and healthy development.
Overall view: Whether it is a bright report card or a subsidy decline, in fact, it is basically within expectations, and the recent stock price continues to fluctuate, the essential reason is that the valuation level is high, and it cannot withstand the concerns of market fundamentals. In 2022, the new energy vehicle sector is still a plate with great opportunities and many opportunities, but the plate has gradually entered the stage of testing the depth of research and looking for alpha.