The seventh stroke of the |
Source| Bowang Finance
One day in July 2013, when heavy rain poured down in Beijing, Li wanted to pass by the gate of Zhongguancun No. 2 Elementary School, just in time for the peak of the children's schooling. He found that despite the heavy rain and wind, there were still many elderly people who came to pick up their children from school. Some bicycles and e-bikes with children fell into the deep stagnant water.
"Aren't those our own parents and children?" It was under this scene that Li wanted to come up with the idea of building a car - in the process of China's urbanization, between the electric bicycle and the car, there is still a lack of a convenient parking, easy driving, wind and rain, intelligent four-wheeled means of transportation for family use.
On July 1, 2015, Chehe Home was established. His first product was the Sev (Smart Electric Vehicle) with a top speed of only 45 kilometers per hour. We can regard this product as an upgraded version of shared bicycles, mainly to solve the 0-20 km radius of travel, pick up the car anywhere, return the car anywhere, without any additional cost.
At that time, the policy was not clear, once the policy was not allowed in a few years, the car and the home would lose, and after weighing the pros and cons, Li wanted to give up this SEV that poured many people's efforts. Turn around and aim at the SUV. In 2018, Li wanted to announce the launch of the smart electric vehicle brand "Ideal Intelligent Manufacturing" and released the first product "Ideal Intelligent Manufacturing ONE". The model has changed, the original intention has not changed, and the target user group of the ideal ONE is still a family user, which is affectionately called the daddy car by the user. A year later, Ideal Intelligent Manufacturing was renamed Ideal, and Ideal ONE was also delivered.
Although the car was delivered, due to the waste of time in adjusting the product, the investment institutions were not optimistic about the ideal. 2018 and 2019 are the most difficult two years after the establishment of the ideal, almost unable to raise money, the capital chain is broken, and the success is lost. At that time, for the ideal, it was already a difficult thing to survive, and the comprehensive strength was at the bottom of the electric three fools.
Fortunately, Wang Xing and others have provided huge financial support, dormant for two years, in 2020, 2021, Ideal Auto has been listed on the NASDAQ and Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
Soldiers who do not want to be generals are not good soldiers, and when food and grass are plentiful and funds are no longer a problem, ideals begin to change.
Shen Yanan, co-founder of Ideal, believes that by 2030, there may be fewer than 10 car brands left in the world. The Chinese market will be dominated by 3 car companies, two of which are likely to be Tesla and Apple. Ideal hopes to become a third.
The translation of this sentence means that the ideal is not willing, and he will no longer be the little brother in the three fools of electric power, and he will outperform the electric vehicle companies outside of Weilai, Xiaopeng and Tesla and Apple.
"By 2025, sell 1.6 million vehicles and gain more than 20% of the market share of smart electric vehicles in China." This is the ideal ending after the change of ideals.
Many in the industry scoff at the ideal goal. Some people say that the ideal has only one model, why did it win 20% of the market share? Some people also joke that the ideal of selling 1.6 million cars by 2025 is a dream.
Regardless of the outside world's evaluation, as we have seen, the ideal is already developing strategies and seeking change for 1.6 million and 20%.
01
Not a little brother
"You can't keep your strength and fight a few beautiful battles. You have to do your best every time, because if you don't try your best this time, you are eliminated, and there will be no next time. Ideal United Shen Yanan said.
Seek the upper and get the middle, seek the middle to get down, and ask for the lower. The goal is to surpass Weilai and Xiaopeng, and the ideal of "doing its best" with every step will usher in an outbreak in 2021. Judging from the financial report of the first three quarters of ideal 2021, ideal automobile has performed very well in terms of revenue, gross margin, cash on paper and delivery volume.
Ideal's earnings report shows that in Q1 2021, Ideal Auto delivered 12,579 vehicles, with revenue of 3.58 billion yuan, far exceeding analysts' expectations.
In 2021 Q2, the operating income of Ideal Automobile Company was 5.04 billion yuan, and it is worth noting that the total revenue of Xiaopeng Automobile in the second quarter increased by 536.7% year-on-year to 3.761 billion yuan, and the total revenue of Ideal Automobile was about 1.279 billion yuan higher than that of Xiaopeng. In terms of loss, the net loss of Ideal Automobile in 2021 Q2 was about 240 million yuan, a decrease of 34.6% from the first quarter, and the net loss of Xiaopeng Automobile in the same quarter was 1.194 billion yuan, and the net loss of Weilai Automobile was 587 million yuan. Ideal car has the least net loss.
In terms of gross margin, the overall gross margin of Ideal Auto in 2021 Q2 reached 18.9%, an increase of 1.6% over the first quarter. In the same quarter, the gross profit margin of Xiaopeng Automobile was 11.9%, and the gross profit margin of Weilai Automobile in the second quarter of 2021 was 20.30%, higher than that of Ideal Automobile.
In 2021Q3, NIO's advantage in gross profit margin gradually lost. According to the financial report, the gross profit margin of NIO Automobile in 2021 Q3 was 18%, while the gross profit margin of Ideal Automobile was 21.1%. In terms of revenue, loss and delivery, Ideal performed equally well in Q3 .
Ideal's revenue for the third quarter of 2021 totalled RMB7.78 billion (US$1.21 billion), an increase of 209.7% from RMB2.51 billion in the third quarter of 2020 and an increase of 54.3% from RMB5.04 billion in the second quarter of 2021. In terms of deliveries, in the third quarter of 2021, the delivery volume of the ideal ONE was 25,116 units, an increase of 190.0% year-on-year. In terms of losses, the Q3 loss of Ideal Automobile was only more than 20 million yuan, and the cash reserve reached 48.83 billion. It is the company with the largest cash reserves in Wei Xiaoli.
On December 1, Ideal Auto announced its November 2021 delivery data. Ideal Cars delivered 13,485 Ideal ONE units in November, an increase of 190.2% over November 2020.
After the release of the Q3 financial report and delivery data, a number of institutions gave a buy rating to the ideal.
Industrial Securities released a research report saying that giving Ideal Auto-W a "buy" rating, it is expected that the operating income of 2021-23 will be 25.975/505.97/99.685 billion yuan, the net profit will be -6.7/-26.3/1.98 billion yuan, and the target price will be HK$161.2, corresponding to 5.4 times PS in 2022. The bank expects the company's sales volume in 2021-2025 to be 8.7, 15.7, 30.7, 61.3 and 856,000 units, respectively, of which the extended range/pure electric vehicle will sell 466,600/390,000 units in 2025.
UBS released a research report giving Ideal a "buy" rating, and the third quarter performed better than expected, with the target price rising from $46 to $47.
China Merchants Securities (Hong Kong) released a research report, the first to give the ideal car - W "buy" rating, is expected to 2021-23 sales of 8.5/15/29 million vehicles, a compound annual growth rate of 107.2%, and optimistic about its organizational efficiency, to create the ultimate product, supply to create demand capabilities, the future electrification and intelligent marginal breakthrough will promote a significant increase in sales and valuation. Valuation of 7x2022 EP/S with a target price of HK$234 and a us stock price target of US$60.
Ideal is confident in the fourth quarter performance. Ideal Expects vehicle deliveries to be 30,000 to 32,000 units in the fourth quarter of 2021, up 107.4% to 121.2% from the fourth quarter of 2020 Revenue totaled RMB8.82 billion (US$1.37 billion) to RMB9.41 billion (US$1.46 billion), an increase of 112.7% from the fourth quarter of 2020 to 126.9%.
02
The way to change
To achieve the 1.6 million and 20% targets, there are many points where the ideal needs to be adjusted and changed. In order to have such high sales, first of all, there must be enough productivity, enough chips, and a very real problem is that only one product is difficult to reach 1.6 million sales.
In terms of chips, the ideal logic is that it is first necessary to master the ability of the hardware, and then master the ability of the operating system, in order to make a good chip, the chip should be optimized according to the application layer and the operating system, the heap computing power alone is useless, the ideal will be along this path to prepare and layout.
The next generation of cars, ideal has adopted the way of domain controllers, ideal will develop their own central domain controllers, on the basis of their own software, to control the main settings on the body.
In terms of technology, Ideal now invests a lot, part of which is a self-developed electronic controller, and the other part, Ideal has formed a team of more than 100 people to develop its own operating system based on Linux, only a good operating system can achieve better and more complex functions.
Li Xiang, founder, chairman and CEO of Ideal Automobile, said that he will continue to invest more than 10 points (10%) in research and development expenses for a long time.
In terms of production, Ideal Automobile's global flagship plant plans to open in Shunyi with a total investment of 6 billion yuan. Ideal Global Flagship Factory will be built on the original Beijing Hyundai No.1 factory and land resources to carry out research and development of key technologies such as ideal vehicles, core components, and automatic driving. In May 2021, the Shunyi District Government issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for Shunyi", which mentioned that the second production base of Ideal Automobile was included in the "Major Projects to be Implemented during the 14th Five-Year Plan period in Shunyi District".
In terms of product line expansion, Ideal plans to launch a number of products priced between 150,000 and 500,000 around the second-generation range extender platform, Whale and Shark, two pure electric platforms. Among them, the next generation of range extended electric vehicle X01 will be released in the second quarter of 2022 and delivered in the third quarter. Ideal is currently working with suppliers to develop 4C magnification batteries and will build its own 800V charging station in the future.
Retail stores are an essential part of the sales of electric vehicles. At present, Ideal is advancing the target of reaching 200 retail stores by the end of the year, covering about 100 cities, yancheng and Mianyang experience stores just opened last week; in 2022, the number of retail stores in ideal plans doubled to 400.
Write at the end:
The points mentioned above are only deliberately revealed by Bowang Finance from the core members of the ideal in an interview, and the higher-level "way of seeking change" is only known by the ideal itself. Whether the above ways of plotting changes will eventually land on the ground is unknown.
Li wanted to create the ideal original intention is to make a car suitable for Chinese families, so the ideal main (the only in the past) model is an SUV, 6-seat or 7-seater, and the design of the extended range is conducive to the whole family to go on outings and short trips. The interior of the car is very large, comfortable, intelligent, so comfortable that you will want to have a cup of coffee in the car. Probably, only people with families can understand why sales are so high.
But these advantages cannot offset the various accidents that have occurred before the ideal. For the grandfather, the safety of the parents and children and the wife is the most important thing. Perhaps, if one day, the ideal can become synonymous with security, then its future is truly unlimited. 1.6 million is really not a dream.