The growing number of pure electric vehicles and the shortage of charging facilities have become a new contradiction in the new energy automobile industry, according to the Ministry of Public Security, as of June 2021, the number of motor vehicles in the country reached 384 million, of which 292 million were cars. The number of new energy vehicles was 6.03 million, accounting for 2.06% of the total number of vehicles. Among the new energy vehicles, there are currently 4.93 million pure electric vehicles, accounting for 81.68% of the total number of new energy vehicles.
According to the agency's forecast, there will be 10 million new energy car owners in 2022, and there will be a lot of car owners in the middle, relying on public charging facilities, the current electric vehicle energy supplementation method is mainly divided into two kinds, one is overcharge, the other is to replace the power, of which the power exchange mode is represented by Weilai, and other car companies have almost invariably chosen the fast charging mode. So, fast charging and power exchange, in the end who is more suitable for the future domestic automobile market?
Swap mode
At present, the main car companies that implement the power exchange model are Weilai Automobile, and there are also some operating taxis, and as of December 2020, there are 555 substations in the country. The biggest advantage of the power exchange mode is that the speed is faster, you can complete the power change in a few minutes, and the refueling time is almost the same, compared to the fast charging time of one hour, it can be said that it is a complete victory in speed. In terms of experience, the power exchange mode is also much stronger.
But the problem with the swap mode is also obvious:
1, the battery standards of many models are difficult to unify, because the battery of new energy vehicles is the core component of the car, it is difficult to achieve the unity of power, energy density, interface, size, etc., which also means that the power exchange mode is often only suitable for power exchange between the same brand, and it is difficult to achieve standardization.
2, the cost of the substation is greater, the land occupied by the substation is larger, the cost investment is also greater, BAIC BJEV officials have told the media that the construction cost of a substation is nearly 10 million yuan, plus the replacement power station must have more battery backup than the electric vehicle, which is also a big expense.
3. It is difficult to achieve breakeven in the substation mode. At present, the number of daily service times of the substation is about the break-even point, and more than 160 times can obtain a better profit, but with the current ownership of electric vehicles and the distribution of the substation, it is difficult to achieve this number of swaps.
At present, the power exchange mode is only suitable for battery replacement within a single brand, or the battery specifications such as taxis, logistics vehicles, and buses can be used in uniform models, which is difficult to fully popularize. However, in terms of experience and speed, the power exchange mode is better than the fast charge mode. In addition to Weilai, Chang'an, Sinopec and other enterprises are also laying out the power exchange model.
Fast charge mode
According to data released by the China Charging Alliance, by the end of 2020, the number of domestic public charging piles was 807,000. The number of private charging piles is roughly the same as that of public charging piles. Added together, the current number of domestic charging piles is about 1.6 million. The current number of charging piles can barely meet the charging needs of electric vehicles, but with the growth of the number of electric vehicles, the number of charging piles is far from enough.
Compared with the replacement power station, the cost of the fast charging station is smaller, the applicable model is wider, and the cost recovery cycle is shorter, but the biggest problem at present is the charging time, even if tesla and GAC, which currently have the highest charging power, the full time is more than an hour, and the time cost is much higher. However, in the future, with the breakthrough of charging technology and battery technology, the time for fast charging is expected to be greatly shortened.
In fact, the best solution is that the household installation charging pile as the main form of charging of electric vehicles, fast charging as a supplement to slow charging, slow charging power is low, not only will not bring a large impact to the power grid, but also can play a role in "peak shaving and valley filling" to regulate the power grid. The power exchange mode, as a way for some high-end car brands to improve service quality, complements each other, and it is expected that in 2022, there will be a phenomenon of "a big outbreak of power exchange, car companies accelerating the self-construction of ultra/fast charging stations, and slow charging accelerating into the community".