Recently, the project manager of a well-known power battery company revealed to tram resources that the company has recently received a large number of customer consultations on hybrid model battery packs, and the company is considering whether to develop new products, what is the future development prospect of the hybrid market?
According to Baidu Encyclopedia, new energy vehicles include pure electric vehicles (BEV), hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV), and other new energy vehicles. All along, new energy vehicles have been dominated by pure electric, while hybrids have been much dimmer.
According to data from the China Automobile Association, from January to November this year, the sales of new energy vehicles were 2.99 million units, of which 2.466 million pure electric vehicles were sold, occupying the mainstream position; while plug-in hybrid vehicles sold 522,000 units, which shows the hot trend of the pure electric market.
The hybrid weakening Pure electric market continues to expand
For many years, China's new energy vehicle field has been dominated by pure electric, which can be traced back to 2012.
In order to cope with the increasingly prominent fuel supply and demand contradictions and environmental pollution problems, in 2012, the State Council issued the "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)", which made a comprehensive plan for the new energy automobile industry and clarified the strategic development of pure electric drives for the first time.
The data source is China Automobile Association, compiled by tram resources
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, since 2014, China's pure electric vehicle sales have continued to grow, from 1416 in 2014 to 1.115 million in 2020, achieving a leap in quantity and quality. The proportion of pure electric vehicles in the field of new energy vehicles is rising, and the average market share in the 7 years from 2014 to 2020 is about 77.3%.
In October 2020, the Society of Automotive Engineers of China issued the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" (hereinafter referred to as the "2.0 Version Technology Roadmap"),once again clearly adhering to the pure electric drive development strategy. The 2.0 version of the technology roadmap proposes that by 2035, China will form an independent and complete industrial chain, the technical level of its own brand pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle products will be synchronized with the international, new energy vehicles account for more than 50% of total vehicle sales, and pure electric will account for more than 95% of new energy vehicles.
Obviously, the market share of pure electric vehicles will continue to expand in the future.
However, while adhering to the pure electric drive strategy, the state also encourages the parallel development of multiple technical routes. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the domestic hybrid vehicle sales in 2014-2020 are stable, and the sales of hybrid vehicles in China in 2014 are 29,700 units, and the sales volume is as high as 251,000 units by 2020, but there is still a huge gap compared with the sales of pure electric vehicles. In the 7 years from 2014 to 2020, the annual share of the hybrid vehicle market is about 27%.
The proportion of hybrid models in new energy commercial vehicles has gradually decreased
The market share of new energy commercial vehicles in the field of new energy vehicles is not large, while the market share of hybrid commercial vehicles in the field of new energy commercial vehicles is even smaller, and the data shows that in recent years, the market share of hybrid commercial vehicles in the field of new energy commercial vehicles has gradually shrunk, on the contrary, the market share of pure electric vehicles has continued to expand.
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the market share of domestic hybrid commercial vehicles in the field of new energy commercial vehicles in 2015-2020 has been declining: in 2015, the domestic sales of new energy commercial vehicles was 124,000 units, and the sales of hybrid commercial vehicles were 23,000 units, accounting for 18.6%; and by 2020, the market share of hybrid commercial vehicles in the field of new energy commercial vehicles fell to 3.3%.
In the pure electric dominated market, the market for hybrid commercial vehicles shows a gradual shrinking trend. Although the 2.0 version of the technology roadmap does not make instructions for traditional commercial vehicles, with the blessing of a number of policies, the process of vehicle electrification continues to accelerate, and the electrification of commercial vehicles will become more and more frequent.
This is also the reason why the market began to have demand for hybrid battery packs. Some insiders have given their own views: hybrid is at most a transitional model, the current traditional commercial vehicle companies transform into new energy vehicles, the production line is mainly based on fuel vehicles, out of the consideration of reducing production costs to change to hybrid, at least the original production line can be used.
The fate of hybrids and "oil to electricity"
Similar to this move is the "oil to electricity" model. The simple understanding of "oil to electricity" is that in the case of the basic unchanged structure of the fuel vehicle platform, the engine, gearbox, transmission shaft, etc. are pulled out, and then stuffed into the motor and battery pack to become a new electric vehicle, the purpose is also to save costs and make up for technical shortcomings.
But in fact, there is a fundamental difference between the two. At best, hybrid can only be said to have not fundamentally changed the drive mode, and "oil to electricity" is extremely unsafe.
Hybrid is a model that adds electric motors/engines to improve low-speed power output and fuel consumption by retaining the original structure, and is divided into two types: plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) and non-plug-in hybrid vehicles (MHEVs).
Among them, the state vigorously promotes plug-in hybrid models, because non-plug-in hybrid models rely on batteries to drive the motor, so there is no fundamental change in the driving mode. However, plug-in hybrid models can avoid this problem very well, because the plug-in hybrid model has a large battery capacity and can drive in pure electric mode until the battery is out of power, and then driven by gasoline.
The "oil to electricity" model also has a variety of drawbacks because of the "big change" on the original basis. On the one hand, safety is affected, compared with the model developed by the pure electric platform, the hybrid model has poor flatness in the chassis, heat dissipation and stability of the battery pack. On the other hand, the "oil to electricity" model is based on the original structure change, and the interior space of the car will be more cramped.
As a transition plan for traditional car companies to switch to new energy vehicles, hybrid seems to be based on the original car to do "electrification" addition, the developed products can use both oil and charge can alleviate the slow charging of trams and mileage anxiety, and the two ends are pleasing. In fact, this process requires the integration of oil vehicles and electric vehicle sets, and it is far more complicated than imagined to really do a good job of hybrid products.
brief summary:
As the electrification of automobiles is in full swing around the world, "oil to electricity" models will eventually be eliminated due to low safety performance and backward technology. According to the 2.0 version of the technology roadmap proposed by 2035, new energy vehicles account for more than 50% of total vehicle sales, pure electric will account for more than 95% of new energy vehicles, whether plug-in hybrid models or non-plug-in hybrid models The ultimate purpose is to change to pure electric vehicles. However, hybrid models will be around for a long time.
Back to the reader's confusion, the market has a demand for hybrid battery packs, is it worth developing similar new products? From the perspective of hybrid market demand, although the proportion of the total amount is very small, if the company can become the king in this field and win most of the hybrid market share, it can also live moistly. However, if enterprises want to have a longer-term development in the field of new energy vehicles, they still have to seize the market opportunities won by the hybrid to catch up with technology research and development and product polishing, and seize a place in the increasingly fierce competition for new energy vehicles.