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Introduction |
2021/12/13
"The wool is out of the sheep", relevant supporting suppliers, OEMs and users, will share this part of the new pressure.
Author 丨 Cui Liwen
Responsible editor 丨 Cui Liwen
Editor 丨Zhu Jinbin
"For patients who really want to recover and be discharged from the hospital, long-term dependence on drug treatment can indeed temporarily alleviate the disease, but it is always not as thorough as self-recovery, and then fundamentally solve it." At this moment, it is inexplicably appropriate to use such a sentence to describe the current Chinese new energy market.
Last month, according to the data released by the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 429,000 units, an increase of 17.9% month-on-month and 131.7% year-on-year. From January to November, the wholesale number of new energy passenger cars was 2.807 million units, an increase of 190.2% year-on-year.
Retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 378,000 units, up 122.3% year-on-year and 19.8% sequentially. From January to November, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 2.514 million units, an increase of 178.3% year-on-year. The trend of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles forms a strong differentiation characteristic, realizing the substitution effect on the fuel vehicle market and driving the automobile market to accelerate the pace of transformation to new energy.
It is gratifying that the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers in November was 19.9%, and the penetration rate of 15.0% in January-November was significantly higher than the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020. In November, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in independent brands reached 33.2%.
It is not difficult to calm down and observe that the overall volume is good, of which A00-class pure electric cars and plug-and-mix models represented by BYD still occupy a large proportion. At the same time, the tilt of relevant license policies also plays a role in boosting behind it.
In terms of appearance, China's new energy market is thriving, but looking deeper, the lack of gold content and the fact that it has not gotten rid of the "crutch" have become a problem that must be faced.
What is even more serious is that at this moment, there are less than 20 days to enter 2022. According to the "Notice of the Four Ministries and Commissions on Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in April this year, the four ministries and commissions of the state (the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Development and Reform Commission) have extended the implementation period of the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles to the end of next year due to factors such as technological progress and scale effects.
Based on the strength and rhythm of the gentle subsidy decline, in principle, the subsidy standards for 2020-2022 will be reduced by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively on the basis of the previous year. According to the content of this "notice", it means that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021, which is a nail in the coffin.
Because of this, on November 24, Beijing time, Tesla's domestic Model 3 and Model Y rear-wheel drive models, which have just completed product upgrading, have once again carried out official price increases. From 250,900 yuan and 276,000 yuan, respectively, it rose to 255,652 yuan and 280,752 yuan, respectively, with a range of 4,752 yuan.
As for the root cause of this round of price increases, according to its official instructions, it is mainly due to the decline of subsidies, and the current amount of personal car purchase subsidies has changed from the previous 15840 yuan to 11088 yuan, and the amount of corporate car purchase subsidies has changed from 11088 yuan to 7761 yuan, which is reduced by 30%.
Entering the order page of Tesla's official website, it can be found that the delivery time of the new version of Model 3 and Model Y is Q1 in 2022. Although as of now, the latest subsidy policy has not been officially introduced, Tesla has made corresponding adjustments according to its estimated decline.
In contrast, due to the delay in the delivery of the overall order due to the upgrading of the production line, coupled with the further decline of subsidies in 2022 and other factors, WEILAI officially launched a transition policy for some individual users.
Specifically, users who pay a deposit to purchase ES8, ES6 and EC6 before December 31, 2021, and who pre-market on March 31, 2022, can enjoy subsidies in accordance with the 2021 national subsidy standards. That is, models equipped with standard battery packs (75kWh) can enjoy a subsidy of 16,200 yuan, while long-lasting battery packs (100kWh) models are 18,000 yuan.
After going to the Xiaopeng store to understand, it was learned that since December 13, Beijing time, that is, today, the car purchase rights package and car purchase installment rights and interests after the new user placed an order will shrink.
Among them, the P7 car purchase rights package will be reduced by 0.5 million to 10,000 yuan, P5 or reduced by 0.4 million yuan, G3i will be reduced by 0.5 million yuan, and most models will no longer enjoy 0 or low interest schemes. The specific reason is speculated to be affected by the decline of new energy subsidies in 2022.
In summary, since the environment cannot be reversed, Tesla's first "leading the rise" has undoubtedly set off a wave of anxiety among all new energy vehicle companies.
On the one hand, due to the decline of subsidies, coupled with the shortage of chips, the rise in raw materials for power batteries and many other unfavorable factors, the production and manufacturing costs continue to rise, and the price increase seems to have become the best way to ensure profits. On the other hand, enterprises are still in the rising period, once the official announcement of price increases, the high probability will cause the rapid loss of potential customers, and even a cliff-like decline in sales.
Exactly how to choose, for a time seems to be caught in a dilemma. In turn, it has also spawned new questions: in 2022, electric vehicles are about to usher in a "wave of price increases"?
To be sure, from their respective perspectives, there will be different answers. As a bystander, in my opinion, in addition to Tesla, which has successfully stood out, for the remaining new energy vehicle companies, price stability is always an important way to maintain the image, so there is a high probability that there will be no so-called collective "price increase tide".
But this does not mean that some brands will use the way of model upgrading to "quietly increase prices". After all, from a realistic point of view, everyone wants to survive and live better, and the subsidy decline in 2022 has become a fact, and the profits of car companies are bound to decline. "The wool is out of the sheep", relevant supporting suppliers, OEMs and users, will share this part of the new pressure.
At this point, I still hope that in the near future, everyone in this new track can get rid of the "crutches" and walk alone, and finally achieve a real sense of recovery and discharge.
| Cui Liwen |
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