In 2022, the mainland will experience negative population growth for the first time, with the total population of the country decreasing by 850,000 compared with the previous year, followed by an even greater reduction last year, reaching 2.08 million, on average, the Chinese population has decreased at a rate of more than 1 million per year in the past two years. That's equivalent to more than 2 people disappearing every minute.
Many people feel that a declining population is a good thing, which means that people are less competitive and have more resources. However, depopulation is not harmless, it will not only affect the country's economy, but also the lives of ordinary people.
Then the question arises, if the population is halved. What does this mean? Industry insiders predict that the population of 1.4 billion will be reduced to 700 million, and 42% of Chinese households will be in a huge predicament.
01.
Is it good or bad to halve the population?
Some institutions predict that according to the current downward trend of population, by 2050, the population of the mainland will decrease from the current 1.4 billion to about 700 million. At that time, will it be good or bad to halve the population?
1. Benefits of depopulation
Optimists believe that when the population declines, the resources of society will no longer be in short supply, and everyone will be able to afford to buy a house and go to a good school. Resources such as water and food will become more and more abundant, people's living costs will be lower, and the happiness index will be greatly improved.
Moreover, if the population decreases, there will no longer be traffic congestion and crowding, everyone will travel more conveniently, the price of refined oil will be cheaper, and everyone can enjoy a younger life.
In short, once the population is greatly reduced, whether it is to enjoy social resources or compete for jobs, everyone will be less stressed than now.
2. The negative effects of population decline
First of all, the pressure of pension has intensified, and everyone has to work at an advanced age. The population decline will inevitably lead to the intensification of the aging population, and the social security expenditures such as pensions and medical insurance will increase significantly, bringing a heavy burden to the local economy.
At that time, delaying retirement may become an effective means to reduce the burden of pension, but it will also form a phenomenon: each of us will become an "old" practitioner, and no one can escape!
Second, the sharp rise in labor costs has led to skyrocketing prices. Once the population is halved, a severe shortage of young workers will exacerbate a sharp rise in wages; However, the enterprise is not a charity, and the rising cost and declining profit will inevitably affect the competitiveness of the enterprise, resulting in high pressure on the business at the same time, all costs will be passed on to the terminal market, and the price will only become more and more expensive.
Finally, spending power has shrunk. If the population decreases, the size of the consumer market will also shrink significantly, which will affect the growth of the industry and even the operation of the whole society. For example, the education and health care sectors have closed their doors for the first time in recent years due to the decline in the birth rate.
In addition, in the real estate sector, once the population is halved, 42% of Chinese households will be in a huge predicament:
02.
The plight of Chinese families after the population halved
In the past, the reason why there was a rapid upward cycle of housing in mainland China was that in addition to the investment demand and the possible impact of policies, the huge demand brought by urbanization was actually the main reason.
From the beginning, there were almost no farmers in the cities, but now the urbanization rate is 65%, and more than 80% of the farmers have entered the cities to live for a long time, and even buy houses and settle down for development. Today, nearly 42% of households in towns and cities own two or more properties, but this trend of migration has made a huge difference.
Today, the rest of the rural population is mostly elderly, and the vast majority of these elderly people are reluctant to move to the cities, and there is a clear oversupply of urban housing. According to the "2022 Survey Report on Housing Vacancy Rate in Major Cities in China" released by the Beike Research Institute, the average housing vacancy rate in 28 cities in China reached 12%.
Generally speaking, the vacancy rate is reasonable between 5%~10%, and those below this range are considered to be too low, indicating that the demand for housing is strong and the potential demand is high. Above 10%, the vacancy rate is considered too high, indicating that there is an oversupply of housing and there is a risk of overstocking.
It should be noted that the scope of this survey does not include the part of off-plan houses and existing houses for sale, so it will be lower than other statistical standards. In other words, if you add these, the vacancy rate is even higher.
On the one hand, the urbanization process has slowed down, and there are no longer as many farmers moving to the city to buy houses as in the past, and on the other hand, there is too much supply. Against this backdrop, halving the population would mean an even greater oversupply in the market. At that point, it will hardly affect those who just need a home.
But for those families who own multiple apartments, it will be miserable, especially if the local government has no choice but to replace land revenue dependence with property tax, then there may really be Cao Dewang said, the house may become a hot potato, and 42% of Chinese families will fall into the dilemma of not being able to sell or rent out their surplus houses, and even continue to bear huge taxes.
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