A-share national fund holdings are expected to increase their positions in chips! Chip semiconductor leaders are expected to benefit in the long run

Jufeng Investment Advisor

2024-05-30 16:36Published in Hunan Finance and Economics Creators

Investment advisory support|Yu Xiaoming, editor|Gu Jinfeng

Source: Jufeng Investment Advisory, Good Stock Application

Compared with the first and second phases, the third phase may continue to increase investment in upstream key equipment, materials and components that match the manufacturing process, especially in advanced manufacturing processes and advanced packaging, and may pay more attention to AI chips, HBM and other cutting-edge advanced but relatively weak domestic "stuck neck" fields. The agency believes that the current electronic semiconductor industry is at the bottom of the cycle, and the first half of 2024 will begin to repair weakly, and the second half of the year is expected to usher in a comprehensive recovery. Today, let's take a look at the company's investment logic with the leading chip semiconductor company.

The global and Chinese semiconductor manufacturing industry has shown signs of improvement and the improvement is expected to continue, and the share of semiconductor production capacity in Chinese mainland is expected to gradually increase

SEMI data shows that global electronics sales in 2024Q1 increased by 1% year-on-year, and it is expected that 2024Q2 will increase by 5% year-on-year; Global integrated circuit sales in 2024Q1 increased by 22% year-on-year, and are expected to grow by 21% in 2024Q2 as high-performance computing chip shipments increase and storage pricing continues to improve. SEMI noted that global IC inventory levels stabilized in 2024Q1 and are expected to improve in 2024Q2.

China's semiconductor prosperity is also expected to improve simultaneously, and a number of semiconductor-related companies said that they have seen the prosperity pick up - Hua Hong Semiconductor said that the company's capacity utilization, sales revenue, and gross profit margin in 2024Q1 have all increased month-on-month, which verifies that the market demand for the company's characteristic processes is generally improving; Cai Lin, director and general manager of Huafon Measurement and Control, introduced at the performance meeting that after a period of destocking, the semiconductor market has gradually shown signs of recovery since 2023Q4, and the prosperity has continued to rise; Huang Mingjiu, chairman of Nike Equipment, said that judging from the contract orders in 2024Q1, the market is recovering, and the semiconductor packaging equipment market has been picking up, with an increase of more than 500% over the same period last year.

According to Knometa Research data, the share of global semiconductor production capacity at the end of 2023 is 22.2% in South Korea, 22.0% in Taiwan, 19.1% in Chinese mainland, 13.4% in Japan, 11.2% in the United States, and 4.8% in Europe. Looking ahead, Chinese mainland's share of semiconductor production capacity is expected to gradually increase and will increase to the world's first place in 2026. On the other hand, Japan's share is expected to decline from 13.4% in 2023 to 12.9% in 2026. With the increase of production capacity, Chinese mainland's influence in the global semiconductor market is expected to increase, and Chinese mainland may have a greater say in market pricing and supply chain stability in the future.

Nvidia's GB200 shipments are expected to reach 900,000 units by 2025, or pull the chip testing and glass substrate market

Nvidia released the GB200 AI superchip on March 18, which consists of two B200GPU and a Grace CPU. Morgan Stanley estimates that according to the CoWoS advanced packaging capacity, it is estimated that 420,000 GB200 will be sent to the downstream market in the second half of 2024, and about 1.5 million ~ 2 million will be produced in 2025. Due to the gap of about one quarter from upstream shipments to downstream assembly, it is estimated that the total shipment of GB200 superchips will reach 900,000 units in 2025. GB200 is expected to bring two incremental links - semiconductor testing and semiconductor packaging.

In terms of semiconductor testing, in GB200, Nvidia has adopted a strategy of large chips, and the increase in chip size will lead to a decrease in yield, which in turn will drive the demand for semiconductor testing, and the data shows that in 2024Q2, NVIDIA's AI GPU test demand increased by 20% month-on-month.

In terms of semiconductor packaging, the advanced packaging process adopted by GB200 will use a glass substrate, which has unique properties such as ultra-low flatness, better thermal stability and mechanical stability, which is expected to increase the interconnect density and optical interconnection integration by 10 times, and achieve a high yield of ultra-large size packaging. However, the disadvantage of glass substrates is that they are more expensive to use than silicone and organic substrates.

Today, let's take a look at the company's investment highlights with the leading chip semiconductor company:

1. The Company's integrated circuit product business includes five major product areas: smart metering and SOC, power management, general analog, non-volatile memory, and high-speed and high-precision ADC.

2. The company's main business is divided into three parts: integrated circuit products, integrated circuit trade and testing business according to categories.

3. The agency believes that the electronic semiconductor industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, and it will begin to repair weakly in the first half of 2024, and it is expected to usher in a comprehensive recovery in the second half of the year.

Shanghai Belling Company is an integrated circuit design enterprise, providing analog and digital-analog mixed integrated circuits and system solutions.

Introduction and main business of Shanghai Belling

At present, the company's integrated circuit product business includes five major product areas, including smart metering and SOC, power management, general analog, non-volatile memory, high-speed and high-precision ADC, which are mainly used in consumer electronics, communications, industrial applications and other fields, and the main target markets are electricity meters, mobile phones, LCD TVs and flat panel displays, set-top boxes and other industrial and consumer electronic products. The company's main business is divided into three parts: integrated circuit products, integrated circuit trade and testing business. In the segmented business, integrated circuit products refer to the company's own design, research and development and sales of integrated circuit product business, the company will non-volatile memory, high-speed and high-precision ADC two smaller businesses and general analog business, continue to be divided into smart metering, general analog and power management three types of business.

The concept of Shanghai Belling stocks

IGBT concept, LED, SSE 380, charging pile, optical communication module, semiconductor concept, Huawei concept, shareholding brokerage, shareholding in the New Third Board, domestic chips, state-owned enterprise reform, central enterprise reform, memory chips, FTSE Russell, wireless headphones, smart grid, Standard & Poor's, Internet of Things, third-generation semiconductors, Yangtze River Delta.

What is the status of Shanghai Belling industry?

In terms of operating income, Shanghai Belling is lower than the industry average, ranking 195th in the industry.

What is the basic situation of Shanghai Belling stock issuance?

The total share capital of Shanghai Belling is 712 million shares, of which 709 million A shares are in circulation. As of May 30, the total market capitalization was 10,776.8 million, the circulating market capitalization was 10,733.1 million yuan, and the price-to-earnings ratio was -191.94. The number of shareholders is 127,000. The largest shareholder is Huada Semiconductor Co., Ltd., with the top ten shareholders accounting for 29.27% of the shares.

What about the financial data of Shanghai Belling stock?

According to the first quarter report of 2024, Shanghai Belling's total revenue was 442 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 37 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.08% in total revenue and a year-on-year increase of 12.41% in attributable net profit.

As of December 31, 2023, by industry, the operating income of integrated circuit production and semiconductor materials trade was 2.082 billion, with a revenue ratio of 97.41%.

Executive profiles

Yang Kun: male, born in November 1970, master's degree candidate, senior engineer. He used to be an engineer and assistant to the director of the 504 Research Institute of the Fifth Academy of China Aerospace Industry Corporation, an engineer and director of the technology center of ZTE Corporation, the general manager of ZTE Integrated Circuit Co., Ltd., the general manager of Wangtai Jinan Co., Ltd., the general manager of Nanjing Weimob Electronics Co., Ltd., the deputy general manager and general manager of Shanghai Belling Co., Ltd., and the chairman of Shanghai Lingxin Microelectronics Co., Ltd. He is currently the chairman of Shanghai Belling Co., Ltd., the chairman of Hong Kong Haihua Co., Ltd., the executive director of Shenzhen Ruineng Micro Technology Co., Ltd., the executive director of Shanghai Lingxin Microelectronics Co., Ltd., the executive director of Shenzhen Silicon Tower Technology Co., Ltd., and the executive director of Nanjing Weimob Electronics Co., Ltd.

NVIDIA has released a number of breakthrough products with GB200 as the core, significantly improving computing performance

At the GTC2024 conference, Nvidia released the epoch-making Blackwell architecture and the GB200 superchip based on this architecture, marking a comprehensive upgrade of the GPU. Blackwell is NVIDIA's first GPU with a multi-chip package design, integrating two GPUs on the same chip, making the chip computing power by leaps and bounds, representing a major breakthrough in the field of generative AI and accelerated computing. GPUs with the Blackwell architecture are divided into two product families: B200 and GB200. GB200 not only achieves a qualitative leap in computing power, improving AI performance to 20 petaflops, but also significantly reducing energy consumption costs. Its NVL72 solution provides an ideal platform for complex computing tasks and large-scale AI models by integrating multiple compute nodes, while reducing energy consumption and costs with copper interconnect and cold-plate liquid cooling system design. With the advancement of AI technology and the expansion of application fields, the GB200 and its supply chain will have a profound impact on the global technology market.

The GB200 supply chain is in the start-up stage, which is expected to drive the incremental market for testing and packaging

The GB200 superchip is in the design tuning and testing phase, with orders and supply chain configurations expected to be finalized in the coming months. In the second half of 2024, 420,000 GB200 superchips are expected to be delivered to the downstream market. In addition, GB200 puts forward new requirements for testing and packaging in the research and development process, which is expected to give rise to a corresponding incremental market: first, the increase in chip size makes the qualification rate of chips decrease, which in turn promotes the growth of demand for semiconductor testing; Second, GB200 is expected to use glass substrates for advanced packaging to achieve the high-performance and multi-functional integration of GB200.

The improvement of chip performance makes glass substrate packaging one of the key directions of chip development

The iterative process of packaging technology increases pin density and bandwidth, reduces transmission distance and resistance, and aims to achieve connection efficiency improvements. At present, traditional organic material substrates show limitations when dealing with high-performance chip packaging, and the capacity is facing limits. In contrast, glass substrates, with their superior flatness, thermal stability, and electrical properties, provide higher interconnect density and lower power loss, becoming a key direction for improving packaging performance, bringing new growth opportunities to the packaging industry. A number of foreign technology giants such as Intel, Samsung, and Apple are actively deploying the glass substrate industry to accelerate the penetration rate of glass substrates in the packaging industry. Many domestic enterprises such as Voge Optoelectronics and Wufang Optoelectronics have also started their strategic layout and have made significant progress in TGV technology.

Investment opportunities

The agency believes that the current electronic semiconductor industry is at the bottom of the cycle, and the first half of 2024 will begin to repair weakly, and the second half of the year is expected to usher in a comprehensive recovery.

Enlightenment Today

Investing must be rational, and if you can't understand it, don't do it. – Warren Buffett

Risk Warning

Sino-US trade frictions have intensified, terminal demand has fallen short of expectations, and domestic substitution has fallen short of expectations.

source

Soochow Securities-Electronics Industry In-depth Report: GB200 Leads the Improvement of Computing Power, and Glass Substrate Becomes a New Hot Spot in Chip Packaging Competition-20240522

Shanghai Securities-Electronics Industry Weekly: The semiconductor boom continues to improve, and Nvidia GB200 is expected to drive the chip testing and glass substrate market - 20240520

(Investment advisory support: Yu Xiaoming, practicing certificate: A0680622030012)

Disclaimer: The above content is for reference only and does not constitute specific operation advice, and you shall operate at your own risk and profit and loss

View original image 77K

• 

• 

•