#头条创作挑战赛#
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According to the global network, a few days ago, Bloomberg published an article saying that China and India are both seeking to replace the United States as the world's largest economy in 2028, and "only time will tell" as to who will reach the top.
(U.S. media compares China-India competition to a chess game)
The article likened the Sino-Indian rivalry to an upcoming chess final, saying that China, as the world's second largest economy, has firmly stood at the top of the global economy. India, on the other hand, is rapidly rising due to its strong economic growth momentum, although it is currently ranked fifth. Like Gukesh, who is only 17 years old, represents India's vitality and future, and Ding Liren, the 32-year-old world champion, is a symbol of China's economic maturity and stability.
(Left, Chinese player Ding Liren; right, Indian player Gukesh)
This metaphor in the US media seems to want to show that both China and India have the strength to reach the top, and each has the potential to defeat the other. But is that really the case?
A few days ago, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) released a report saying that India's imports from China in the 2023-2024 fiscal year have exceeded 100 billion US dollars, an increase of about 31 billion US dollars from the 2018-2019 fiscal year. However, between FY 2018-2019 and FY 2023-2024, India's exports to China have stagnated at around $16 billion per year.
What does that mean? That is to say, India has been in a state of deficit in trade with China for a long time; in human terms, India buys more from China, but China buys less from India; China has made a lot of money from India, but India has not made much money from China.
(Modi: I'm in a hurry, you know?)
It is also worth mentioning that China is the largest source of supply to India's eight major industrial sectors, including machinery, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and textiles. Previously, Indian officials only considered imports from China to be mainly electronics.
This is very embarrassing, indicating that India is heavily dependent on Chinese manufacturing in the above eight industrial sectors. How ironic Modi's recent vation that India will replace China as the "world's manufacturing center".
(Dream of "Make in India" beyond China)
Moreover, Bloomberg's statement that India is on track to become the world's largest economy by 2028 is outrageous. Now it is 2024, India is the fifth in the world, and it will only take four years for India to be the first in the world? And we have to know how big the gold content of the fifth is and the first and second, and this gap cannot be crossed in four years.
(Goldman Sachs' previous forecast is more reliable)
In contrast, Goldman Sachs' previous prediction is more reasonable, that is, about 30 years later, in 2075, India will surpass the United States to become the world's second largest economy. First, of course, it is China!