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Before Tsai Ing-wen stepped down, she once again spoke harshly about the mainland, claiming that the cost of military reunification is too high, and if the mainland is reunified by force, the mainland's economic development may lag for decades. However, soon, a Taiwan expert slapped Tsai Ing-wen in the face, and the expert said: The mainland is not afraid of the United States. Why did Tsai Ing-wen choose to call the mainland before leaving office?
On May 17, the BBC broadcast clips of Tsai Ing-wen's interview. In the interview, Tsai Ing-wen released harsh words about the mainland when talking about the Taiwan Strait issue, she said that the mainland does have a plan to restore Taiwan, but the cost of the mainland's military reunification of Taiwan is too high, which will cause decades of stagnation in the mainland's economy, and the mainland should make a choice; And Taiwan has the support of the United States behind it, and the United States will not sit idly by, "the situation is changing, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict has made a large number of democracies form a consensus and produce a meaningful deterrent", as long as it is handled carefully, Taiwan can maintain peace in the future.
In addition, Taiwan also has "countries with diplomatic relations," and in the international community, Taiwan also has supporters, so it is impossible for the mainland to take the initiative to reunify by force, and peaceful reunification is also impossible.
Obviously, Tsai Ing-wen is cheering herself up, and she is also cheering up the DPP. The reason why Tsai Ing-wen dares to speak harshly about the mainland is because of the support of the United States, and she and the top level of the Democratic Progressive Party believe that the United States will never allow the mainland to reunify Taiwan.
The so-called as long as it is dealt with cautiously, Taiwan will be stable, which is a bit of a knock on Lai Qingde's meaning, as long as it does not trample on the mainland's bottom line, then the mainland will not take reunification measures against Taiwan. As early as a few years ago, American think tanks hyped that China would reunify Taiwan by force in 2027, which is also the origin of many war games conducted by US think tanks and Tsai Ing-wen's belief that the mainland has a plan to reunify Taiwan by force.
For this reason, whether it is US arms sales to Taiwan, strengthening the armed forces of Taiwan, or collusion between the United States and Taiwan, it is all in order to deal with possible military reunification. Taiwan media reported that the Taiwan military will hold joint exercises with the US military in the Pacific Ocean in the near future, assuming part of the responsibility for the first island chain of the United States, and at the same time, the Taiwan authorities also actively hope to achieve "intelligence sharing" with the US Indo-Pacific Command.
In response to the collusion between the United States and Taiwan, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) directly dispatched 18 sorties of military aircraft and four warships to target Taiwan Island on 18 May, of which 12 warplanes flew over the center line of the strait, and even two flew to a distance of 42 nautical miles from Penghu. In view of the actions of the Continental Army planes, retired Taiwan General Li Zhengjie believes that the flight of the Continental Army planes over the center line of the strait has become a regular occurrence, and it is aimed at "blocking" external forces and the passage through the Taiwan Strait.
Prior to this, a US military plane attempted to land at the Taiwan airfield at the request of the Taiwan military, but was locked by the fire control radar of the Chinese Air Force fighter plane, and fled in disarray. The more frequent the US-Taiwan collusion, the more the PLA Navy and Air Force will shrink the living space of the Taiwan military. Regarding this confrontation, retired Taiwan General Zhang Yanting directly said that the PLA Air Force can reach Taiwan Island in six minutes, and once a conflict breaks out, the Taiwan army will only be completely annihilated.
So will the United States come out for Taiwan? A few days ago, the Philippines hyped up the organization of more than 100 civilian ships to forcibly break into Scarborough Shoal, and it was because the US aircraft carrier battle group was in the South China Sea, and as a result, the Philippine civilian ships had just been dispatched, and the US aircraft carrier immediately ran away and sailed to the Changi base in Singapore, 2,000 kilometers away.
In this regard, Taiwan expert Wan Jiaxing bluntly said: The mainland is not afraid of the United States. In the South China Sea, the mainland has an absolute advantage, and even Japan, the Philippines, and Australia will not be able to change the outcome.
The United States also knows this, and in the middle of the night on May 16, the Pentagon once again launched a video call with China, saying that China will resolutely counter the collusion between the United States and Taiwan, the destruction of the situation in the Taiwan Strait, the deployment of intermediate-range missiles in the Philippines, the serious endangerment of regional security, and the provocation of incidents in the South China Sea. However, the United States has always gone back on its word on the Taiwan Strait issue.
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell said in an exclusive interview with the US magazine "Foreign Policy" a few days ago that the EU's consistent position is to adhere to the "one-China principle," that we do not recognize Taiwan and will not do it in the future, and that the EU should firmly ensure that all parties will not break out into a military conflict over the Taiwan issue.
Borrell is different from von der Leyen and other EU officials in that he is a pragmatist and is more objective in his stance on China. It also reflects the differences between the EU and the United States on China policy. In fact, Europe has been trying to get rid of the control of Europe by the United States, and Macron has repeatedly said in public that he wants the EU to be independent, which is a concrete embodiment.
In recent years, the United States has roped in all its allies to step up suppression and sanctions against China, which all proves that the United States has lost its confidence, and has begun to become at a loss. However, with the exception of some European countries that will make peace with the United States in some respects, the general direction of the China issue is to remain neutral. As for its Asian allies, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia, if the United States intervenes, they will be fine with beating the drum in the back, but they will not do it if they are expected to charge into battle for the United States and serve as cannon fodder.
More than 180 countries in the world have established diplomatic relations with China, and their adherence to the "one-China principle" also shows that one China is the trend of the times, so Tsai Ing-wen's so-called "international support" is only verbal support from a small number of countries. As for the so-called "leaning on the United States to seek independence" by the Taiwan authorities, Taiwan thinks too highly of itself, and Taiwan is just a card for the United States to suppress China; when peace reunification is no longer possible one day and China launches a war for military reunification, the United States will most likely sit idly by and watch the Taiwan Strait.
Therefore, in the end, I would like to advise the DPP authorities that their belief in China's reunification will never change, and no one can obstruct the great cause of China's reunification and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, regardless of the interference of external forces.
Resources
Lianhe Zaobao, May 19, 2024, Tsai Ing-wen: If Beijing starts a war, economic development may lag for decades
Global Times, May 19, 2024, "We do not recognize Taiwan, and we will not in the future"