With the acceleration of US-Taiwan collusion, the United States is stepping up arming the Taiwan military, and the Taiwan authorities' intention of "seeking independence by force" has become more obvious. After Lai Qingde came to power, it is unlikely that cross-strait relations will improve, but on the contrary, there is a possibility that they will decline. Recently, in an interview with British radio and television, Tsai Ing-wen openly spoke harshly about the mainland, saying that it is too difficult to reunify Taiwan by force, and if the mainland wants military reunification, then the economy will stagnate for decades.
It can be seen that the Taiwan authorities will not be willing to accept reunification. Then, once the mainland decides on military reunification, if it fails to "blitzkrieg" and quickly resolve the Taiwan military and Taiwan authorities, it is very likely that the United States, Japan, and other countries will intervene in the Taiwan Strait, and then the mainland will very likely have to fight against several countries, and this will be a very unfavorable situation for the mainland. So, if this day really comes, what are the chances of the PLA winning?
Japan is "on the move".
In 2021, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe came to Taiwan to participate in a think tank forum. At the forum, he made an arrogant and inappropriate statement, claiming that the emergency situation in Taiwan is the emergency of Japan and the emergency of the "Japan-US alliance." If the mainland takes military action against Taiwan, it will pose a serious threat to Japan.
Such a statement is absurd and dangerous. Later, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin responded to this, accusing Shinzo Abe of openly pointing fingers on the Taiwan issue, which is an arbitrary discussion of the mainland's internal affairs and is strongly opposed by the mainland. As a matter of fact, this incident also reflects Japan's attitude, that is, they want to keep up with the pace of the "big brother of the United States" in a vain attempt to meddle in the mainland's internal affairs.
But until now, they haven't given up. On March 28, 2024, Japan's Kyodo News Agency released an "exclusive report", saying that according to relevant sources in the Japanese government, the Japanese government intends to designate 16 airports and harbors in 7 prefectures including Hokkaido and Okinawa as "trouble" bases. If "something happens in Taiwan," these bases will be provided to the Japanese Self-Defense Forces and the Japan Coast Guard on a priority basis.
The "something" mentioned in the report is Japan's remark that "if there is something in Taiwan, there is something in Japan." It seems that Japan is determined to prevent the mainland from taking military action to recover Taiwan, and such an act is also extremely stupid.
When Japan launched the war of aggression against China, they committed heinous crimes against the mainland people. What is even more infuriating is that after the incident, they were shameless, wantonly distorted history, and refused to admit their acts of aggression. But they are only deceiving themselves by revising the history in the book, because the real history can never be easily erased.
As a result, the people of the mainland still have a deep hatred for Japan. Now they are still coveting the territory of the mainland, which is not only a manifestation of their ambition, but also a provocation to the sovereignty of the mainland. And the reason why they are so bold is because they are "backed" by their big brother, the United States.
After World War II, Japan, as a defeated country, became a "dependent country" of the United States, which was also the result of mutual benefits for both sides. Japan needs the United States to support them militarily in order to promote its own development, and the United States also needs to use Japan as a pawn to contain China. However, the people of the mainland are not afraid, and some people have pointed out that if Japan makes a move, then we will settle the old and new accounts with Japan.
"Inside and outside" with the United States
On February 14, 2024, Taiwan's coast guard spotted a fishing boat from the mainland while patrolling the waters north of Kinmen County. But then their operation was very infuriating, and they actually crashed into it. How could the small fishing boat withstand such a violent impact, it was directly knocked over, and two people on board were unfortunately killed.
After the incident, the Taiwan authorities were indifferent to the incident and did nothing. Seeing that public opinion was intensifying, he responded perfunctorily that because there was no surveillance video at the time of the incident, it was impossible to collect evidence. Both the people of the mainland and the people of Taiwan are very dissatisfied when they hear such remarks. At the same time, this has also aggravated the tension in the Taiwan Strait.
The United States, on the other hand, is also ready to make a move, either sending its domestic politicians to visit Taiwan or selling military equipment to Taiwan. This series of actions shows their stance, that is, their intention to obstruct "military reunification." The US side has said earlier that the US Department of Defense will regularly discuss the military forces needed to secure Taiwan. At the same time, the US National Guard will also actively assist Taiwan in training and responding to any emergencies.
A US commander has also threatened that once the PLA uses force, the United States will take immediate action and even destroy important military bases on the mainland. The reason why the United States is doing this is undoubtedly because the rise of the mainland has brought a sense of threat to the top level of the United States, so they will hinder the rise of the mainland before they will use Taiwan as a springboard to suppress the mainland.
But the fact is that whether they launched a trade war or created public opinion pressure on the mainland internationally. None of this has been able to defeat the mainland, which is still developing steadily, and this has made the United States more and more anxious on the Taiwan issue. What is even more ridiculous is that those Taiwan independence elements have even played a high-sounding game with the United States to "cooperate with the outside world." The United States has set up a military base for the "Taiwan Guardian Force" externally, and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has conducted various military exercises internally.
On February 18 this year, Gan Yu, spokesman for the Mainland Coast Guard, issued a statement that the Fujian Coast Guard would increase patrols at sea and would carry out regular patrols in the Xiajin waters. A little over a month later, the DPP authorities issued a proclamation claiming that they would conduct a live-fire exercise with ground weapons against the sea in Kinmen Island and Houyu Island in April.
As soon as this announcement was issued, it aroused a high degree of concern and discussion among the people on both sides of the strait. The Taiwan military also righteously added that this was just a routine shooting training and that there was no purpose in it. Immediately afterwards, Chen Binhua, spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, responded to this. He said that they knew in their hearts whether the DPP's move was a "routine" training or a "targeted" provocation.
After experiencing the transition between peace and war, the villagers of Kinmen have naturally experienced the beauty of peace and the pain of war, and they have made the right choice between peace and war. At the same time, we will also pay close attention to all the movements of the Taiwan military in Kinmen, and if they are still obstinate and insist on provoking, then we will never sit idly by, and what awaits them will surely be defeat.
Subsequently, Wu Chien, spokesman for the Ministry of National Defense, also expressed his attitude, pointing out that the movements of the Taiwan military are all under the control of the PLA, and any provocative act by the DPP authorities will end in failure, which also doubles the pressure on the DPP. Eventually, on 2 April, the Taiwan Army's "Kinmen Defense Command" issued a statement saying that the original sea shooting training had been suspended and that the exercise would be conducted on the ground instead, because it was worried that this move would cause provocation, and because of the concern that the arrival of the foggy season would cause danger to guard.
Later, Hsiao Mei-qin, the deputy leader of the Taiwan region, began a "visit to Europe." Obviously, the Taiwan independence elements are vainly hoping to achieve their goals by colluding with external forces, believing that as long as they find a backer, they can be separated from the mainland. However, the Taiwan issue is the mainland's internal affair, and it is not yet the turn of outsiders to interfere, and the mainland's attitude is also very resolute, and the Taiwan independence elements will eventually reap the consequences.
Whether it is the previous punishment of Su Zhenchang and other "Taiwan independence" elements or the punishment of five "famous mouths" in Taiwan in recent days, they are all warning some people in Taiwan not to make money from the mainland, and they are also scolding the mainland for smearing the mainland, which China will not allow.
The pressure on "military reunification".
The Taiwan issue is essentially a Sino-US issue, and the first thing China will face when it reunifies Taiwan is obstruction from the United States. Although it is unlikely that the United States will directly send troops to interfere, it will inevitably take other actions to intervene or borrow other forces. For example, the younger brothers in the United States, Japan and South Korea, which are closer to us, needless to say. As soon as the United States does something, they will certainly come to its military aid.
In particular, it is necessary to beware of South Korea, which will have to be distracted by the fact that if they take advantage of the situation to start a war on the Korean Peninsula, the PLA will have to be distracted to stabilize the situation on the Korean Peninsula. In this way, the military strength of the "armed reunification" side will be weakened.
And there is another hidden dangerous force, and that is India. India has been on the border of the continent and will stir up some troubles. If the PLA takes advantage of the weakness when the PLA launches "military reunification," then the PLA will have to divide some people to the border, and its strength will be weakened again, and it will be difficult to cope with it for a while. Therefore, if the PLA really wants to "reunify" Taiwan by force, it must make adequate preparations to avoid being pulled by external forces and thus ensure the success of recovering Taiwan.
The second is the pressure of public opinion, although the Taiwan issue is an internal affair of the mainland. However, the United States has always been quite unreasonable, and when the day comes when "military reunification" really comes, they will certainly wantonly smear us in the international media, slander the mainland's image, and plunge the mainland into a whirlpool of public opinion, thus provoking other countries to isolate us, and this will bring a certain amount of pressure to the mainland's diplomacy.
The final issue that "military reunification" will face is the issue of post-war reconstruction. We all know that the people who suffer the most in the war are the "defenseless" people, and if a war really breaks out, it will inevitably cause casualties. The question of how to resettle the surviving residents has become a thorny one. At the same time, some of Taiwan's infrastructure will certainly be damaged after the war, and reconstruction will require a lot of financial resources and energy. To sum up, it is quite difficult for the PLA to want "military reunification."
Although it is difficult to "reunify Taiwan by force," we will never make concessions on the matter of safeguarding national territorial sovereignty. The mainland's intention has always been peaceful reunification, but if things really develop to the point of using force, we will never back down. At the same time, the PLA needs to develop a strategic plan to deal with all eventualities.
Although the "armed reunification" is facing many forces, according to the analysis of various parties, the PLA's chances of victory are still quite large. And we must also firmly believe that the People's Liberation Army will surely win, and one day, Taiwan will return to the embrace of the motherland!
Resources
Graham Allison: China and the United States should remain calm and restrained in order to overcome the "Thucydides Trap" - The Paper
"Time is running out" major reform of the US Air Force in response to the threat of war in the Western Pacific of the Chinese People's Liberation Army
China's Shipbuilding Ranks No. 1 in the World, Experts Discuss the Impact on Future Wars
"U.S. Think Tank Report: The U.S. Government Must Clearly Explain to Its People the Reasons for Defending Taiwan"