The content of this article is written with authoritative information combined with personal opinions, and the source of the literature and screenshots have been marked at the end of the article, please be aware.
On May 20, the global network quoted Iran's Mehr News Agency as reporting that Iranian President Raisi and Foreign Minister Abdollahian and other senior Iranian officials were killed in a helicopter accident on the 19th. At present, the wreckage of the plane has been recovered, and all nine people on board have been killed. Subsequently, U.S. Senate officials said: This is not murder. Israel also claims that it has nothing to do with the incident, so what exactly is the cause of the plane crash?
Photographs of the accident scene
The plane crashed
Judging from the photos at the scene, the helicopter in which the Iranian president was riding should have crashed into a mountain, and the wreckage of the plane was also halfway up the mountain, where the mountains are high and dense, and it is difficult to find it in the first place without satellite positioning. This is why for 10 hours from the time the president disappeared to the time he was found, there was no smoke or fire in the photos at the scene, only the black patch around the wreckage of the plane, which may have been extinguished automatically before rescuers arrived.
It is reported that before the search and rescue, there was a heavy fog in the local area, which also brought great inconvenience to the search and rescue work. 10 hours, completely missed the best time for rescue, when rescuers arrived at the scene, including President Raisi, Foreign Minister Abdollahian, all 9 crew members were killed.
At that time, the Iranian president and his entourage were in three helicopters, but the other two arrived safely, except for the helicopter crash of President Raisi and the foreign minister, which is a bit strange.
According to preliminary analysis, there were three reasons for the crash of the plane,
First, extreme weather, when there was heavy fog, low visibility, and the plane crashed into a mountain.
Second, the plane malfunction, President Raisi's helicopter, is the American-made Bell 212 helicopter, which was purchased from the United States by Iran in the 70s of the last century, more than 50 years ago, and then the United States imposed long-term sanctions and blockades on Iran, resulting in the aging of aircraft parts and components, and the failure of the plane, which caused the plane to crash into a mountain.
3. Human factors, such as those done by external forces, deliberately sabotage the aircraft, or directly "shoot down".
坠毁前的画面
If it is the first two reasons, that is, the weather and the failure of the plane, then forget it, but if it is the third reason, then the situation in the Middle East will definitely explode.
Object of suspicion
At present, there are quite a few people who believe that the human factor is more likely, and the first object of suspicion is Israel, which and Iran are considered "sworn enemies", which have been hostile to each other for decades. The United States abstained from voting on a United Nations resolution calling for a ceasefire due to the grave humanitarian catastrophe that occurred in Israel because of the serious humanitarian catastrophe that occurred among Palestinian civilians.
Israel is very dissatisfied with this, Israel can not care about the United Nations resolution, but it cannot ignore the attitude of the United States, in order to pull the United States into the water, in order to strengthen the United States to support Israel, Israel airstrikes the Iranian embassy in Syria, resulting in the death of several high-ranking Iranian officials. After that, the whole world thought that Iran would definitely fight against Israel, and as a result, Iran was very restrained, only retaliating with "symbolic" air strikes, almost zero casualties, or in advance, informing the major powers.
But afterwards, Yemen's Houthis, Lebanese Allah and other Middle Eastern anti-Israel forces attacked Israel on a large scale, and the Houthis attacked Israeli and allied cargo ships in the Red Sea, as well as blocked oil routes. In addition, the New York Times reported on 18 May that the United States and Iran are holding secret talks in Oman, and once the two sides reach talks, it will be very unfavorable to Israel.
From the point of view of motives, Israel has the possibility of doing this, and in addition, Israeli "Mossad" agents have strong infiltration into Iran, so it is not surprising that they have information about the Iranian president's departure, and besides, Israel has repeatedly assassinated senior Iranian officials before. Whether it is motivation, ability, or benefit, Israel is the first choice.
Of course, Israel must be the first target of suspicion when this happens. However, Israel also clarified for the first time, saying that the matter had nothing to do with them, and also mocked Iran, and the president and foreign minister were unsafe and irrational when they took a helicopter on a foggy day.
The second object of suspicion is the United States, which is a well-known anti-American fighter and has imposed sanctions on Iran for decades. Under the mediation of the Chinese side, the reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the great reconciliation in the Middle East are very unfavorable to the US Middle East strategy and petrodollar strategy, and the current situation in Israel is not good, which is why there are US-Iran negotiations.
Of course, after the accident, senior U.S. Senate officials also said that there was no evidence of murder in the incident, which was more like an accident.
The third object of suspicion is some extremist forces or opposition forces in Iran, the opposition is dissatisfied with the US-Iran negotiations, and as for the extremist forces that have been attacked by Iran for a long time, they also retaliate against Iran, and it is not impossible for them to do something against the Iranian president.
impact on the situation
Of course, all is speculation at the moment, and it depends on Iran's own investigation. However, the situation in the Middle East is likely to change dramatically, and once it is determined that external forces are responsible, Iran will definitely not retaliate "symbolically" against Israel as it did last time.
The death of the Iranian president will inevitably have an impact on the situation in the Middle East, and it is very unfavorable for Israel to be attacked by the anti-Israeli armed forces, but this is because there is an "arc of resistance" led by Iran, and now that the president is killed, there will be an accident in Iran, and it is difficult to say whether the situation in the Middle East will change.
In addition, the Iranian president and foreign minister are the leading forces in the great reconciliation in the Middle East, and it is difficult to say whether the absence of these two people will have an adverse impact on the great reconciliation, and it is also difficult to say whether the "iron triangle" of China, Russia, and Iran opposing US imperialist hegemony will have an impact in the future.
However, although the Iranian president is the head of state, he is actually only the "second person", and the "first person" in Iran is the spiritual leader Khamenei. Therefore, Iran's state's major policy and diplomacy should not be greatly affected. However, it is undeniable that the Iranian president was killed, and it seems that the United States and Israel are the "winners".
Supreme Leader of Iran
From the assassination of Slovak Prime Minister Fizo to the death of the Iranian president, this will further complicate the current complex international situation, and at the same time show that the great power game has entered a white-hot stage, and the international situation may get out of control. As far as the mainland is concerned, to maintain strategic focus is to be fully prepared just in case.
Resources
Huanqiu.com, May 20, 2024, Iranian media: Iranian President Raisi and Foreign Minister Abdollahian were killed in a helicopter accident
Global Network, on May 20, 2024, a former US military officer confided important information about the crash of the Iranian president!
Observer.com, May 20, 2024, how will the crash of the president and foreign minister affect the political situation in Iran?