The box office of the four films is nearly 10 billion, and half of the films in the Spring Festival file are withdrawn
After the turmoil of withdrawal, the film industry's concentration of the head has become more and more significant.
According to the data of Maoyan Professional Edition, as of the Chinese New Year Festival on February 24, the total box office of the four films released during this year's Spring Festival, "Hot and Hot", "Flying Life 2", "Article 20" and "Bear Infested" reached nearly 10 billion yuan. Previously, the other four films released at the same time, "Let's Shake the Sun Together" and "Mr. Red Carpet", have been gloomily announced to be withdrawn.
(Source: Maoyan Professional Edition)
"Not only the Spring Festival file, but also the current concentration of the film industry to the head is becoming more and more significant, and the key lies in the Internet attribute of the film product. Peng Jian, a researcher at the School of Cultural Industry Management of Communication University of China, told Jiupai financial reporters: "If the film is regarded as an industrialized product, once the Matthew effect occurs in the industry, the strong will easily defeat the weak, which is not conducive to the balance and richness of the film, but it is also inevitable." ”
An Yugang, CEO of Yingxing World, also told reporters: """No Name" and "Deep Sea", which ranked 4th and 5th during the Spring Festival last year, finally achieved a box office of nearly 1 billion. The special situation of the withdrawal of 4 films this year shows that films, as a cultural commodity, are closer to the competitive logic of traditional commodities, and the industry tends to be in the era of head concentration after mature development. At present, several major films are competing against each other, and they have not formed a monopoly. ”
[1] The new trend of the film market: the concentration of heads
The film market tends to be the head of the market, which stems from its Internet and social attributes.
Peng Jian believes that in the past, movies played an entertainment and aesthetic role in daily life, which needed to be colorful and diverse, but now, the Internet is deeply influencing the reasons why audiences enter the theater, and movies have gradually become a social tool. As long as a movie can form an Internet topic, it can attract more people to enter the theater in order to participate in this social topic, which will further spark discussions, forming a typical Matthew effect, so there will be hits out of the circle every schedule.
Also under the influence of the Internet, Peng Jian pointed out that in the past, the industry could judge the box office performance according to the Douban score that reflects the artistic quality of a film, which is basically proportional; It is impossible to generate four or five social topics in the same schedule.
According to the report of Maoyan Research Institute, in the 2024 Spring Festival, 84.2% of the audience will only watch one movie, 13.3% of the audience will watch two movies, and only 2.2% of the audience will watch three movies. An Yugang believes that the chances of each audience choosing more than two movies in a holiday are very small, and people do not have the energy and financial resources to watch multiple films on the same holiday, but prefer to choose the most popular films that have been verified by the market.
Another major factor in the development of head concentration is the market-oriented competition of theater scheduling.
According to the data of Maoyan Professional Edition, 3 days before the withdrawal of the film "Mr. Red Carpet" starring Andy Lau, the film scheduling rate in theaters across the country was only 1.9%, 1.8%, and 1.5% respectively. During the 8-day Spring Festival holiday, the box office of the four films "Hot and Hot", "Flying Life 2", "Bear Infested: Reversing Time and Space" and "Article 20" accounted for 97.8% of the total box office, and the proportion of films scheduled was very different.
(Source: Maoyan Professional Edition)
Regarding the competition for film scheduling, An Yugang pointed out, "The withdrawal is nothing more than that the film company has not received the expected commercial returns, the core reason is that the theater is the most cost pressure in the film industry chain, and the daily rent is high. ”
From a more upstream perspective, there is also a trend of centralization in the investment, financing, and distribution links of the film industry.
Peng Jian pointed out that at present, there are generally more than 15 producers and 4 to 5 distributors behind the top blockbusters, bundled with listed companies such as Maoyan, Wanda, and China Film, with luxurious production teams, distribution resources, online platforms and cinema resources. According to the reporter's statistics, the producers of "Hot and Hot" include Xinli Media, China Film Co., Ltd., Alibaba Pictures, China Literature Group, Tencent Penguin Film and Television, etc.;
"At present, the concentration of industry resources on top films is indeed not conducive to small and medium-sized production companies," Peng Jian said, "However, we also need head films to create huge topics and IPs for the society, and take on the role of entertaining the whole people and expanding the market." ”
[2] The strategy of fixing and removing files should be more mature
In recent years, the withdrawal of films has gradually become the "norm", and industry insiders believe that this is the positive development of the film industry towards flexibility and marketization.
In fact, in the past, during major schedules every year, there were small and medium-sized films that were "pressed" by the top films, and the final box office was dismal. Peng Jian revealed that there were some Spring Festival films that found out that they were about to lose money one day after their release, but at that time they lacked the awareness of withdrawing and had a lot of concerns.
However, Peng Jian believes that in the future, the withdrawal of files cannot be just a "withdrawal" word, but to consider "how to withdraw", it is necessary to choose a more mature plan.
Recently, "Let's Shake the Sun Together" mentioned in the withdrawal statement that "there was a major mistake in the selection of schedules", and "Huang Pi: The God of Wealth Cat" emphasized in the statement that "I have to say goodbye to you in advance", and some netizens questioned that the withdrawn film is "run away if you can't beat it".
In fact, "Let's Shake the Sun Together" has an excellent reputation, and the previous work in the series has received more than one billion box office. Peng Jian believes that for such high-quality works, they can congratulate and pay tribute to competitors in the withdrawal statement to show respect, and emphasize their own differentiated characteristics, such as "choosing another time point to show everyone alternative inspirational", turning the withdrawal into a new expectation for the audience to welcome the second release of the film.
From the perspective of early file selection, the "withdrawal tide" also warns that medium-sized films should pay more attention to small long holidays and weekend schedules when selecting files.
"Although the Spring Festival file is longer, the number of films it can accommodate is almost the same as that of the small long holiday. Peng Jian pointed out, "If it weren't for industrialized and high-cost films such as "The Wandering Earth" and "Fengshen", ordinary films would be better than running in the top 4 during the Spring Festival. Like if you can't cut the first four pieces of a large cake, you might as well cut the first two pieces of a small cake, which is actually a competitive consideration. ”
[3] The way out for small and medium-cost films
Under the trend of head centralization, how should small and medium-cost films adjust their production and distribution strategies in the future?
In the film industry, low-budget films can provide newcomers with the feasibility of exploration, and can also meet the viewing needs of niche vertical markets, which is the embodiment of the industrialization of the industry. An Yugang believes that small-scale films should control costs, consider the input-output ratio, and get the corresponding income for each magnitude of projects.
Peng Jian pointed out that at present, some small-scale films are only screened in the theaters of the Art Alliance, and at the same time sell the rights to film channels or online platforms, and participate in the screening of one or two foreign film festivals or overseas film foundations, which can also make a profit after sharing the account; in the future, they can also be released in some theaters and regions through branch distribution. Although the success of small-scale films is accidental, finding some differentiated strategies and creating topics can still make a profit or even become a dark horse.
In contrast, Peng Jian believes that the most "squeezed" at present is the waist movies with a cost of 50 million to 80 million yuan, which can only be profitable if the box office reaches at least about 200 million, but it may become "cannon fodder" in the fierce competition of the Spring Festival stalls.
As a key special schedule to determine the one-year box office, the cost of films released during the Spring Festival is higher than usual. According to Peng Jian, the cost of publicity and ticket compensation for the head film of the Spring Festival file is 60 million to 80 million yuan, while the box office of "Mr. Red Carpet" was only 84 million yuan before the withdrawal, and only about 35 million yuan after the account was divided, which may not even cover the publicity and distribution fee.
In addition to paying attention to the small long holiday schedule when selecting files, Peng Jian believes that waist films and their companies have two options in the production stage, "One is to do small productions in Chinese production, and control the cost of a single film at 20 or 30 million, so that as long as the box office reaches 80 million, there will be a profit." Another option is to take the route of industrial large-scale production, and really further improve the production specifications of each link, and make each rivet rivet mother very exquisite. In short, we need large, medium and small films in the industry to find their own strategies and tracks, each has its own place, and forms a balanced structure. ”
Jiupai financial reporter Xia Wenqi
[Source: Jiupai News]