After holding a 19-day joint exercise with the United States and Australia, the scale of the "largest in history," the Philippines has finally come up with a provocative method that has been brewing for a long time. According to the Global Times, in the past two days, a Philippine "non-governmental organization" will gather a group of so-called "local fishermen" to go to the vicinity of China's Huangyan Island to seek trouble.
In this regard, American maritime expert Powell disclosed that China is sending a large team to blockade Scarborough Shoal, with at least four coast guard ships and 26 large maritime militia ships.
In other words, the maritime forces of China and the Philippines are gathering at Scarborough Shoal, and after the Philippines has been planning through exercises for a long time, it is possible that they will take aggressive actions in this confrontation and force a showdown between the two sides. In this regard, we will talk about three topics.
First, why did the Philippines choose Scarborough Shoal for a new round of provocations? This could be for three reasons.
First of all, Scarborough Shoal is the closest Chinese reef to the mainland of the Philippines. According to the data, Scarborough Shoal is only 220 kilometers away from Luzon Island in northern Philippines, while Manila, the capital of the Philippines, is exactly on Luzon Island, and is almost parallel to Scarborough Shoal in a straight line, just like China's "eye" staring at the Philippines, which makes the Philippine side feel particularly unbearable, so what the most hope in my heart is Scarborough Shoal.
Not only that, Scarborough Shoal is also at the throat of the Subic Bay in the Philippines, and it is 300 kilometers away from the famous Subic Naval Base in the Philippines through satellite maps. What is interesting is that this is also a long-term leased base of the US military in the Philippines. In this way, not only the Philippines, but also the United States wants to take Scarborough Shoal. Moreover, the so-called "South China Sea arbitration" between the United States and the Philippines was aimed at Scarborough Shoal, and the first large-scale confrontation between China and the Philippines was also at Scarborough Shoal.
Secondly, the geological conditions of Huangyan Island are very suitable for "island building". It is said to be an "island", but in fact Scarborough Shoal is not a large land mass above the sea, it is just a triangular coral island. According to the survey data, Scarborough Shoal has a reef area of about 150 square kilometers – including 80 square kilometers of reef flats and 70 square kilometers of surrounding lagoons.
Moreover, a very favorable condition is that the reef around the northern and southern ends of Scarborough Shoal is only 0.5 meters deep, which is very suitable for land reclamation. If it is upgraded, it can fill in a large island of 40 square kilometers and accommodate 200,000 people for a long time. China is globally recognized as an "infrastructure maniac", and it is not difficult to fill out a large island if you want to, but for the Philippines, it is tantamount to a "nightmare".
Finally, the cruise missiles introduced by the Philippine side are mainly aimed at Scarborough Shoal. At the end of last month, after the "BrahMos" cruise missile imported by the Philippines from India was in place, it was deployed by the Philippine side to the west side of Luzon Island, to put it bluntly, it is the position of "facing Scarborough Shoal", and the subtext is already very clear, although India does not want to provoke China too much, and limits the range to 290 kilometers, but as mentioned earlier, Luzon Island is only 220 kilometers away from Scarborough Shoal, which is completely sufficient for the Philippines.
Moreover, in the "shoulder-to-shoulder" joint exercise, the United States, the Philippines and Australia also used Scarborough Shoal as a "model" for reference. In the eyes of the Philippines, Scarborough Shoal is "inevitable".
Second, the "non-governmental organization" dispatched by the Philippine side is actually not simple, and even has an "American background".
In the past, fishermen from the Philippines have trespassed into the waters of Huangyan Dao, because the surrounding area is not only rich in fishery resources, but also the only natural island in the relevant waters around the Zhongsha Islands that can dock ships to avoid typhoons. However, after the Marcos administration began to provoke China in the South China Sea, the Philippines began to send fishery administration ships to forcibly enter Scarborough Shoal after entering 2024.
The observation also found that the Philippine "non-governmental organization" that was preparing to make trouble at Huangyan Dao this time was not simple, and its name was very strange, "this is ours." The Philippine side chose it to go to Huangyan Dao to stir up trouble, and I am afraid that this name is also partly due to this name. A review of the data also found that this "non-governmental organization" has actually been funded by the United States for many years to stir up trouble on the South China Sea issue and use it to influence the Philippine government's South China Sea policy. Now, the Philippine government has chosen it, indicating that the United States and the Philippines have fully agreed to provoke China in the South China Sea.
It is said that this Philippine "non-governmental organization" organized more than 200 people to take more than 100 boats to Scarborough Shoal and drop "symbolic buoys" with provocative slogans written on them in the adjacent waters. If, as US maritime experts have said, if the Chinese side uses 30 ships to block it, it may not be able to keep busy at all, and it is not difficult to imagine what kind of chaotic scene will occur at that time, and if the Philippine side carries "other contents", the situation may intensify at that time, leading to a direct showdown between the two sides.
Third, not only did the Chinese side respond at a lower and lower temperature, but also took more and more tough actions, with CCTV sending three messages in a row.
As for the dispute between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, at the beginning, the Chinese side still hoped to resolve it through communication, and also reached a "gentlemen's agreement", but the Marcos government was not trustworthy at all, not only did not implement it, but also did not admit that it had reached an agreement with China. Against this backdrop, the Chinese side is no longer polite, not only releasing the recording of the dialogue when the two sides reached a consensus, but also directly naming names, saying which high-level Philippine side agrees. Such a direct "slap in the face" action also made the Philippine side a little angry, so this deliberate provocation will not be small.
A noteworthy development, in response to Huangyan Island, CCTV issued three important news in one day on May 13. In the morning, "the China Coast Guard carried out regular training in the waters of Huangyan Dao", at noon it was "the first disclosure of aerial images of Huangyan Dao", and in the evening, it was "disclosure of the details of the training of the Chinese Coast Guard Chuanshan in the waters of Huangyan Dao in recent days". The three pieces of information are not only related to Scarborough Shoal, but also related to each other, which is probably also an "early warning" signal, indicating that if something happens to Scarborough Shoal next, it will not be a trivial matter.
In fact, in recent times, China has not only responded colder and colder to the Philippines, but also let 055 carry a four-ship formation to the South China Sea before the US-Philippine-Australia exercise has not ended, and carry out actual combat exercises under the noses of the United States and the Philippines. These four warships are the 055 Zunyi ship, the 052C Haikou ship, the 052D Kunming ship and the 054A Xianning ship, with 256 vertical hair units alone, and they can carry out all-dimensional strikes, and the tough attitude is very obvious.
Moreover, the Philippine side also disclosed to the outside world that China has started an "island-building" project at Xianbin Reef. According to the data, Xianbin Reef is on the east side of Ren'ai Reef, closer to the Philippines, and in the current context, the news of the Philippine side may not be "groundless". In this way, if the Philippines continues to wantonly provoke, the day of a showdown between the two sides in the South China Sea may really be getting closer and closer.