Three months after China completely suspended imports of Japanese aquatic products, what happened to the market?

Issue 241

Text | NTU New Biography Future Editorial Department - Nuclear Record Student

Huang Yuhan, Li Wenyu, Guo Sihang

Cartography |

Edit | Wu Yuhang, Wang Tingting

Typography | Wang Tingting

Three months ago, on August 24, Japan began discharging nuclear-contaminated water from Fukushima into the sea. As of noon local time on September 11, the first round of discharge of nuclear-contaminated water from Japan's Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant into the sea was completed, and a total of 7,788 tons of nuclear sewage were discharged into the Pacific Ocean. On the day of the start of the discharge, the General Administration of Customs of China announced that it would completely suspend the import of Japanese aquatic products in order to fully prevent the risk of radioactive contamination caused by the discharge of nuclear sewage from Fukushima into the sea in Japan, protect the health of Chinese consumers, and ensure the safety of imported food [1].

After three months, what is the future of Japan's aquatic products? What are the consequences of the complete suspension of imports on Japanese aquatic products? What impact will it have on the mainland's seafood market? The "Records of the Verification of the Truth" have verified the above issues.

Check point 1: China has completely suspended imports, and Japanese aquatic products have encountered a cold winter?

To clarify this question, the first question that should be clarified is: how dependent is Japanese seafood on the Chinese market?

According to the latest statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries of Japan, from 2020 to 2022, among the top four exporters of Japanese aquatic products, the top four countries in terms of trading volume are China (the data of the Macao Special Administrative Region is not included in the statistics), the United States, Vietnam and South Korea. In the past three years, the proportion of aquatic products exported to Chinese mainland, Hong Kong and Taiwan has gradually increased, accounting for 46.7% in 2020, rising to 50.6% in 2021, and reaching the highest ratio of 50.9% in the past three years in 2022, accounting for half of the total exports.

In addition, among the top 10 countries and regions in Japan's aquatic product exports from 2020 to 2022, it can be seen that Chinese mainland, Hong Kong, and Taiwan have a faster growth rate and higher quantity, leading other countries by a large gap. China has become a major destination for Japan's seafood exports.

China's total suspension of imports means that Japan has lost a huge buyer's market.

The total suspension of imports has led to a decline in the volume and value of Japan's exports of aquatic products. Data released by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries showed that in September 2023, Japan's exports of fish and seafood (including canned food and other manufactured goods) to Chinese mainland amounted to 58.68 million yen, down 99.3% from the same period last year. In terms of specific product categories, the export value of previously major products such as scallops, sea cucumbers, and tuna to China is zero, and only non-edible products such as pearls, corals, and koi fish are still exported to China [2].

The total suspension of imports has also led to an oversupply of Japanese seafood, causing domestic seafood prices to plummet. In the past five years, scallops have been the largest seafood export volume and value of seafood exports from Japan to China[3], and shipments have continued to grow, but due to the stagnation of exports to China, the supply of scallops in Japan has increased significantly, which has led to a decline in the scallop market. According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, the price of fresh scallops produced in Miyagi Prefecture (Japan's largest seafood prefecture) at Toyosu Market (Japan's largest seafood market) in Koto Ward, Tokyo is 2,500 to 3,500 yen (about 123.57 to 173.01 yuan) per kilogram, which is 30% cheaper than the same period in September last year. In addition to the loss of the Chinese market, many Japanese consumers are hesitant to buy domestic aquatic products due to the impact of the discharge of nuclear sewage into the sea [4]. 

While purchases from China, the largest buyer of seafood, have plummeted, the Japanese seafood industry is looking for new sales channels to secure alternative sales destinations to China. According to Nikkei Chinese, Japan's aquaculture industry is aiming to open up markets in the United States and Southeast Asia [5].

In general, the dependence of Japanese seafood on the Chinese market is undoubtedly very large. As Japan's largest export partner of aquatic products in the past five years, China's ban on the import of aquatic products is a very important factor that has led to the decline in the volume and value of Japan's aquatic product exports and the collapse of Japanese aquatic product market prices.

At the same time, we also note that as early as July, the Chinese government began to test all Japanese aquatic products for 100% radioactive substances, replacing the previous method of sampling testing. If importers import seafood from Japan in violation of laws and regulations, they will face a variety of severe consequences, including penalties and possibly prison sentences for false declarations, smuggling goods prohibited by the country, and non-compliance with food safety. This move has increased the time for imported seafood from Japan to be stranded at customs for testing, resulting in a decrease in the freshness of some products and the inability to sell them in a timely manner [6]. It can be seen that the mainland has made full preparations and responses before the discharge of nuclear-contaminated water from Japan, and has also formulated a series of strict measures to prevent it [7].

Check point 2: China's aquatic product market is affected by the complete suspension of imports?

We checked the domestic seafood production and import data, and found that the amount of aquatic products imported by China from Japan is small compared to China's own production of aquatic products. Specifically, in 2022, China's total output of aquatic products will be 68.6591 million tons, excluding 3.7095 million tons of exports, there will still be 64.9496 million tons of self-produced aquatic products circulating in the domestic market, accounting for 94.6% of the total output. Japan's exports of 263,000 tons of aquatic products to China (mainland and Hong Kong) are about 247 times that of Chinese aquatic products in the domestic market [8][9].

In addition, in terms of import volume, Japan ranks only ninth among China's aquatic product importers. According to the International Trade Center (ITC), China's aquatic product imports reached US$19.13 billion in 2022, with a total import of about 4.19 million tons. Of this, imports from Japan accounted for only 5.07% of the total value [10].

After the restriction of Japan's seafood imports, the consumer market began to look for alternative products. For example, Dalian sea urchin is used instead of Hokkaido sea urchin in Japanese restaurants, and Arctic sweet shrimp from Russia, Canada, Denmark and other places are used instead of sweet shrimp [11]. Specifically, in the first 10 months of this year, China imported 25,887 tonnes of cold-water shrimp from Canada, an increase of 7.1% from 24,162 tonnes in the same period last year, and the number of sweet shrimp imported from Greenland in October increased by 30% compared to the same period last year [12].

In addition, as a result of this incident, sales of domestic seafood and aquatic products have risen rapidly [13]. According to data from the Pinduoduo platform, Zhoushan pike crabs ushered in a wave of hot sales after the fishing just started on August 6, and then the market was cold for a while. However, on August 24, the day Japan discharged nuclear wastewater, the price and sales of pike crabs rebounded, with sales increasing by more than 122%. Similarly, sales of seafood such as large yellow croaker increased by 148%, and even sales of fresh pick-up vouchers for freshwater crabs such as hairy crabs increased by more than 730% [14].

In general, China's self-production of aquatic products is large, and there are many importing countries, and it does not rely on the Japanese market, so the "total suspension of imports" has little negative impact on the Chinese market.

summary

To sum up, on the question of "China's complete suspension of imports, Japan's aquatic products suffer a cold winter?", our answer is yes. Due to Japan's high dependence on exports, China is the main destination of Japan's aquatic products exports, after the Fukushima nuclear sewage discharge incident, the Chinese side issued a comprehensive suspension of the import of Japanese aquatic products, which has greatly reduced the export value and unit price of Japanese aquatic products, which has had a huge impact on the Japanese aquatic products market.

As for "is China's aquatic product market affected by the total suspension of imports?", it can only be said that "the negative impact is very small". This is mainly due to the high self-production of domestic seafood products and the low dependence on imported Japanese aquatic products.

Resources

[1] Aquatic products are aquatic products, which generally refer to all consumer goods derived from aquatic ecosystems. These include seafood (seafood). - Wikipedia aquatic product entry https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hans/%E6%B0%B4%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A

[2] "Japan Release: Exports of Aquatic Products to China Decreased by 99% in September", https://news.bjd.com.cn/2023/10/28/10604137.shtml

[3] Tokyo Central Wholesale Market Statistical Information (Monthly and Annual Reports): https://www.shijou-tokei.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/

[4] "Japanese supermarkets have also stopped buying, and the mentality of Japanese companies has collapsed: why are their own people like this?!", https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7gglstDFzGPhaU8I2NKo-Q

[5] "One Month After China's Embargo on Japanese Aquatic Products," https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/B5UXp2nOi8x0brxoR8lgSA

[6] "Japan's Exports of Aquatic Products to China Fell by 23% in July, and the Wholesale Price of Scallops Fell by 3%", https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xaq1YJGqAcIFJFDbqC4UPQ

[7] "Completely Suspend the Import of Japanese Aquatic Products!" From the Perspective of "Compliance", Can Japanese Food Still Be Eaten?"

 https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20231008A082OP00

[8] "China's seafood imports in 2022 exceed those in 2019, and the shrimp and crab market grows significantly", https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/pGaFJyB5KcMJ6vb8Uo4n6Q

[9] "Japan's Seafood Imports Hit a Record High in 2022"

https://www.nippon.com/cn/japan-data/h01715/

[10] International Trade Centre (ITC) https://intracen.org/

[11] China has suspended imports of Japanese aquatic products, can domestic aquaculture companies fill this part http://www.customs.gov.cn/customs/302249/zfxxgk/2799825/302274/302277/302276/5380155/index.html of the market?

[12] "China's cold-water shrimp imports hit a record high in October 2023, up 15.3% year-on-year!", https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dnTBAeqTvgAxnBpdRnx2Rg

[13] Sina Finance, "Online Domestic Seafood, Aquatic Products and Other Sales Rise Rapidly", https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2023-08-28/doc-imzishya0021504.shtml

[14] Tencent News, "Domestic seafood is selling out! Has the price gone up? Update https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20230827A076T900

[15] Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Japan, https://www.maff.go.jp/j/tokei/kouhyou/kokusai/index.html#h

[16] Ministry of Finance of Japan, Trade Statistics https://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/suii/html/data/y4.pdf

[17] http://www.customs.gov.cn/customs/302249/zfxxgk/2799825/302274/302277/4899681/index.html of the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China 

[18] Nikkei Chinese.com https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xaq1YJGqAcIFJFDbqC4UPQ

[19] CCTV Chinese International, "Japanese Media: Has Affected Many Industries in Japan", https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RbyTR-V5fQmSEPcaZTz2vQ

[20] National aquaculture & capture production in 2022 (Fisheries and Fishery Administration of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People's Republic of China) http://www.yyj.moa.gov.cn/kjzl/202306/t20230628_6431131.htm

[21] In the first seven months of 2022, the top 10 import sources of aquatic products and products in mainland China (China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Foodstuffs, Native Produce and Animal Husbandry https://www.cccfna.org.cn/maoyitongji/hangyetongji/ff80808185059a5d0186037905501135.html

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