Import, export
In terms of exports, exports in April continued the moderate recovery trend in the previous period and returned to the positive growth range. In terms of products, the export growth rate of mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products rebounded, which was the main source of the rebound in export growth in April. Among them, mobile phones, automatic data processing equipment and their parts, integrated circuits and other products in the computer and electronics industry chain drove the overall export growth rate up by 0.3, 0.2 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and labor-intensive products such as clothing and clothing accessories, textile yarn and other labor-intensive products together drove the mainland's export growth up by 3.1 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of sub-regions, the regional pattern of mainland exports has further shown the characteristics of "rising in the east and falling in the west", and the proportion of exports to ASEAN in the total export value of the mainland has further increased.
On the import side, the increase in import demand for export-related intermediate goods and the recovery in the price of crude oil and other commodities led to a rebound in the import reading. Among them, the export growth of the computer electronics industry chain and the automobile industry chain has rebounded, and the import demand for related intermediate goods such as integrated circuits and auto parts has rebounded. At the same time, the volume and price of crude oil imports rose together, driving the overall import growth rate to rise by 2.4 percentage points from the previous month.
Looking ahead, the rebound of the global manufacturing industry will continue to be superimposed on the low base, and the improvement in the growth rate of mainland exports and imports is expected to continue.
affair
In US dollar terms, China's exports in April 2024 were 1.5% year-on-year, the previous value was -7.5%, and the market expected 1.3%; Imports were 8.4% year-on-year, the previous value was -1.9%, and the market expected 4.7%. The trade surplus was 72.35 billion US dollars, the previous value was 58.55 billion US dollars, and the market expected 81 billion US dollars.
Comments
1. Exports: moderate recovery
Benefiting from the improvement in global demand and the subsidence of the Spring Festival disturbances, exports rose by 9.0 percentage points to 1.5% in April compared with the previous month, and mainland exports continued to recover moderately. In terms of products, the rebound in the export growth rate of mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products is the main source of the mainland's export growth rebound. Specifically:
From the perspective of mechanical and electrical products, the export of mechanical and electrical products in April rebounded by 10.3 percentage points from the previous month to 1.4%, driving the overall growth rate to rise by 6.0 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of detailed products, the export growth of the computer electronics industry chain and the automobile industry chain is the confidence for the rebound of the export of mechanical and electrical products. On the one hand, benefiting from the recovery of demand in the global computer electronics industry chain, the export growth rate of high-tech products represented by mobile phones, automatic data processing equipment and their parts, and integrated circuits rose by 6.0, 4.8 and 3.4 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month, and the overall export growth rate rose by 0.3, 0.2 and 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous month. On the other hand, the export growth rate of automobiles and auto parts remained at a high level of 28.8% in April, which also supported the moderate recovery of the mainland's export growth rate.
From the perspective of labor-intensive products, with the fading of the impact of the Spring Festival, the export growth rate of the "old three" represented by clothing, furniture and household appliances has rebounded. Among them, in April, the export growth rate of traditional labor-intensive products such as clothing and clothing accessories, textile yarns, plastic products, household appliances, furniture and its parts, lamps, shoes, toys, bags and similar products rebounded by more than 10% month-on-month, and the total growth rate of mainland exports rose by 3.1 percentage points compared with the previous month.
In terms of sub-regions, in the context of deepening industrial cooperation between the mainland and ASEAN, the regional pattern of mainland exports has further shown the characteristics of "rising in the east and falling in the west", and the growth of exports to ASEAN has become the main source of export growth in the mainland. In April, the growth rate of mainland exports to ASEAN rebounded by 14.4 percentage points from the previous month to 8.2%, driving the overall export growth rate of the mainland to rebound by 2.2 percentage points from the previous month. The proportion of mainland exports to ASEAN in the mainland's total exports rose further to 16.9% in April, the highest since May 2023. At the same time, the narrower decline in exports to the United States and the European Union also contributed to the recovery of the mainland's export growth, which drove the mainland's overall export growth rate back by 1.9 and 1.7 percentage points respectively from the previous month.
2. Imports: both volume and price rose
Benefiting from the rebound in export demand and rising commodity prices, imports rebounded by 10.3 percentage points year-on-year to 8.4% in April.
From the perspective of the rebound in export demand, the recovery of exports has led to a rebound in the import demand for related intermediate goods. In the context of the division of labor in the global industrial chain, the export recovery of the computer electronics industry chain has led to a rebound in the import demand for related intermediate goods. Especially for industries with long production chains, such as computers, electronics and automobiles, the recovery of export demand will help drive the import demand for related intermediate goods such as integrated circuits and auto parts to rebound. Combined with the mainland's imported products, the imports of integrated circuits, automatic data processing equipment and their parts in April rose by 14.2 and 22.0 percentage points year-on-year respectively from the previous month, driving the overall import growth rate up by 1.9 and 0.4 percentage points respectively from the previous month. At the same time, imports of auto parts rebounded by 16.9% to 19.6% year-on-year from the previous month, driving the overall import growth rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
In terms of rising commodity prices, the RJ/CRB commodity price index rose to 8.8% year-on-year in April, the highest value since February 2023, which helped drive the year-on-year improvement in mainland import prices. Represented by crude oil, the mainland's crude oil imports in April rebounded by 18.4 percentage points year-on-year to 15.0% compared with the previous month, driving the mainland's overall import growth rate to rise by 2.4 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of volume and price separation, the volume and price of crude oil imports rose in April, with the import volume and average import price increasing by 5.5% and 8.2% year-on-year respectively.
In addition, import demand for products related to domestic consumption demand also increased in April. Among them, the imports of agricultural products, beauty cosmetics and toiletries rebounded by 21.0 and 18.9 percentage points year-on-year respectively from the previous month, driving the overall import growth rate of the mainland to rise by 0.7 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the previous month.
To sum up, benefiting from the rebound in the global manufacturing boom and the rise in commodity prices, the growth rate of mainland exports and imports both rebounded in April. Looking ahead, the rebound of the global manufacturing industry will continue to be superimposed on the low base, and the improvement in the growth rate of mainland exports and imports is expected to continue.
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