A list of major economic events in the week of May 13-May 17, the following are Beijing time: There will be many blockbuster data and events this week: China's 70-city housing prices and economic data in April, US April CPI and retail sales data, German April CPI data, US April PPI data, and Japan's first-quarter GDP data will be released. In addition, a number of Federal Reserve officials will speak intensively, and the financial report disclosure of Hong Kong stocks and Chinese concept stocks will enter the peak period, and Alibaba, Tencent, JD.com and Baidu will release results. OpenAI, Google will hold a press conference, OpenAI may release a new multimodal AI model with visual and auditory functions, Google will announce new progress in the model at the I/O conference, and it is rumored to release a personal assistant called Pixie.
China's 70 city house prices and economic data in April
- May 17 09:30 Housing prices in 70 cities in China
China's National Bureau of Statistics will release its monthly report on the sales price index of commercial residential properties for April on Friday. According to previous data, the transaction volume of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in March increased compared with the previous period, and the month-on-month decline in the sales price of commercial housing in all tiers of cities narrowed slightly and expanded. Specifically, the sales prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while the sales prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in second- and third-tier cities decreased by 0.3% and 0.4% month-on-month respectively, with the same rate of decline as the previous month. The month-on-month decline in second-hand housing narrowed, and the year-on-year decline across the board and the overall decline expanded. Last week, Hangzhou and Xi'an announced that they would completely cancel the property market purchase restriction policy. As one of the important means of property market regulation, "purchase restrictions" are gradually withdrawing from the historical stage, and at present, in addition to the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, only Hainan Province and Tianjin are still in a state of partial liberalization of purchase restrictions.
- May 17 China's economic data for April
On May 17, the National Bureau of Statistics will release China's economic data such as industrial added value, fixed asset investment, and total retail sales of consumer goods from January to April. A number of institutions expect that as the fundamentals continue to repair, the year-on-year growth of consumption and industry-related data in April is expected to rebound significantly, and manufacturing and infrastructure investment will remain relatively resilient. Hua Chuang Securities believes that the fundamental positive factors reflected in the April economic data may increase, and a number of sub-readings are expected to improve. On the production front, April's PMI pointed to an accelerated expansion in manufacturing production, with industrial growth expected to rise slightly to more than 5%. From the perspective of demand, the export reading is expected to recover from a low base, continuing the trend of weak recovery, and the support of import prices for the reading may weaken; In terms of investment, the high-frequency data related to infrastructure investment in April was more positive, especially the month-on-month increase in the price of investment products, and the growth rate of fixed assets may rise to about 4.8%. In addition, it is expected that the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods may be around 4.5%. Huatai Securities expects the year-on-year growth rate of industrial production in April to rebound slightly to about 5.5% from 4.5% in March. The year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods rebounded to 4.5% from 3.1% in March, of which experiential consumption such as tourism was strong, but bulk consumption such as automobiles weakened. The growth rate of fixed asset investment in January and April may increase marginally to 4.6% from 4.5% in January to March. In a single month, the year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in April may rebound to 4.3%, partially boosted by the low base. Zheshang Securities believes that the industrial production boom in April was generally stable, and it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in April may be 5.3%. The total retail sales of consumer goods in April are expected to be +8.8% year-on-year (previous value of 3.1%). In April, the growth rate of fixed asset investment may be relatively stable, manufacturing and infrastructure investment remain relatively resilient, and the driving effect of large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in policies on the automobile manufacturing industry is also continuing to be released.
The U.S. April CPI will be released at 20:30 on Wednesday night, and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release April CPI inflation data, which will play an important role in "determining the path of monetary policy and the market's pricing in that path". The market expects that the CPI may cool down in April, and the US CPI may slow from 3.5% to 3.4% year-on-year, but it may remain at 0.4% month-on-month due to gasoline prices hitting a six-month high. Core inflation is likely to slow for the first time in six months, with the core CPI, which excludes food and fuel, expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month and slow to 3.6% year-on-year, the smallest increase in three years. This offers a glimmer of hope that price pressures are starting to ease again after a series of upward movements, but CPI is still rising too fast and may not be able to reassure Fed policymakers who want to see evidence of a sustained slowdown in inflation as they argue about the timing of rate cuts. Inflation in the United States was stubborn in the first quarter, and the cost of basic services remained high despite a sharp pullback in core goods prices. The US March CPI released last month accelerated faster than expected year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth rate higher than expected for five consecutive months, and the three-month growth rate of core CPI was higher than expected, hitting the market's interest rate cut expectations hard. It is worth mentioning that the CPI data will play an important role in "determining the path of monetary policy and the market's pricing in that path". All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher last week, and the CPI may put the market to the test again. Morgan Stanley Michael Wilson said that given that the impact of price action on investor sentiment is so great against the backdrop of an uncertain macro environment, the market reaction after the release of the CPI data may be more important than the data itself. At the same time, comments from Fed officials will continue to affect markets, with a number of officials coming out loud next week, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell scheduled to speak at a foreign bankers' event in Amsterdam on Tuesday, as are 2024 FOMC members, Cleveland Regional Fed President Mester and 2024 FOMC members, Atlanta Fed President Bostic. In addition, part of the Fed's difficulty in bringing inflation down to its 2% target is the resilience of the US consumer, with US retail sales growing steadily in February and March, with economists' forecasts for April pointing to a slight slowdown, with US retail sales due on Wednesday to be released alongside CPI data.
OpenAI, Google ignite AI competitionOpenAI announced on social media X that it will release updates on ChatGPT and GPT-4 live on its official website at 10 a.m. on Monday (1 a.m. Beijing time on Tuesday). However, the company also said that it will not release GPT-5 at that time, nor will it release a search engine product. To the surprise of the market, Sam Altman quoted the above news on the X platform and said that GPT-5 will not be released next Monday, nor will it release the AI search engine. He added, "We've been trying to develop something new that we think people will enjoy, and it feels like magic to me." In other words, OpenAI once again did not launch its much-anticipated AI-based search product as the timeline of market revelations. Judging by the announcement, OpenAI will revolve around the update of its fiery chatbot ChatGPT and its AI model next Monday. It's been more than a year since OpenAI released its last flagship model, GPT-4, and the release of the new model is highly anticipated. So what exactly is this new product? It is reported that OpenAI's new product may be a new multimodal AI model with visual and auditory functions, and has better logical reasoning capabilities than current chatbots. In addition, more details have been dug up, ChatGPT may implement the telephone function, to achieve telephone calls, at least the following key capabilities are required: speech recognition; speech synthesis; 3. Real-time interaction; OpenAI has all these technologies, and now it's up to the final product. Under pressure from OpenAI, Google will unveil new developments in the model at the I/O conference, as well as the platform to be more deeply embedded in various products and applications. It is also rumored to release a personal digital assistant called Pixie, powered by Gemini. The I/O Developer Conference is Google's most important annual event of the year, and Google is also expected to showcase a range of AI-related products.
Tencent and Alibaba will release financial reports, Hong Kong stocks and Chinese concept stocks will usher in a peak period of performance disclosure, and Internet giants Alibaba, Tencent, JD.com and Baidu will release results. Guohai Securities expects Tencent to achieve operating income of 159.3 billion yuan in 2024Q1, including 78.7 billion yuan in value-added services, 24.8 billion yuan in online advertising business, and 54.8 billion yuan in financial technology and enterprise services; NON-IFRS net profit attributable to the parent company was 44 billion yuan, an increase of 35% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month; Gross margin was 49%, non-IFRS operating margin was 34%, and non-IFRS net profit margin attributable to the parent was 28%. Guohai Securities expects that Alibaba's revenue in the first quarter of this year may reach 219.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, but adjusted EBITA will decline by 2% year-on-year to 24.8 billion yuan; JD.com's total revenue in the first quarter was 258.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company under non-US general standards was 7.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%.
Other important data, meetings and events 125 billion yuan of MLF maturity Wind data statistics show that the central bank of China will have 10 billion yuan of reverse repurchase due in the open market next week, of which 2 billion yuan will be due every day from Monday to Friday. In addition, 125 billion yuan of MLF is due on the 15th. In order to ensure the smooth and smooth development of the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, the Treasury Department of the Ministry of Finance decided to convene a mobilization and deployment meeting for the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, which is scheduled for May 13. On May 15-20, 2024, the 23rd Qingdao International Automobile Industry Exhibition and New Energy Vehicles Countryside Tour (Qingdao Station) will be held at Qingdao International Convention and Exhibition Center (Laoshan District). The 2024 Qingdao International Auto Show will be the next stop for major brand manufacturers, such as BYD Qin L, FAW Hongqi Guoyue, Mercedes-Benz EQG, Deep Blue G318, and FAW-Volkswagen New Magotan ...... A number of the latest models that ushered in the world premiere at the Beijing Auto Show will come to Qingdao to start the blockbuster launch in Shandong. Li Bin, founder and CEO of Weilai, said that the ONVO brand will be officially released at 19:30 on May 15, and the first model is Ledao L60, focusing on the 250,000-yuan family intelligent pure electric SUV market. Li Bin said that the first model, Ledao L60, is benchmarked against Tesla Model Y, and the cost will be about 10% lower than that of Tesla Model Y; The second product will be an SUV model for large families. Li Bin once said on the earnings call that the NIO brand will continue to focus on maintaining a high gross profit margin to ensure the company's profitability, and the new product line of the second brand will mainly undertake the task of sales growth, and the priority of sales in the early stage is higher than the gross profit margin. According to the Global Times, citing Reuters, people familiar with the matter said that the full announcement of the new tariffs on China will be announced as soon as the 14th. It is unclear exactly how much or what type of tariffs will be levied, but the Biden administration is said to have focused on strategic competition and national security. Bloomberg said that this is the decision made by the Biden administration after reviewing the previous administration's Section 301 tariffs on China.
There will be five new listings in the week of the IPO (May 13-May 17). Reddy's will be listed on the Growth Enterprise Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on the 13th, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on the 16th, the Hongying City Services will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on the 17th, and Kindly MD, Inc. and Games Global Inc will be listed on the NASDAQ and the New York Stock Exchange respectively.
Click on the picture to view the Mini Program version, and a total of 27 new funds (Class A and Class C combined statistics) were issued that week.
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