Xinhua All Media +丨Observing China's economy, these indicators in April are promising

BEIJING, May 17 (Xinhua) -- Looking at China's economy, these indicators in April are promising

Xinhua News Agency reporters Wei Yukun and Han Jianuo

After achieving a "good start" in the first quarter, how did China's economy perform in April?

On May 17, the National Bureau of Statistics released the latest economic operation data, giving the answer: although the growth rate of some indicators has slowed down due to factors such as the wrong month of holidays and the high base of the same period last year, the main indicators such as industry and exports have generally improved, and the national economic operation has been generally stable, continuing to rise for the better.

How to understand this judgment?

Let's start with macro indicators. For the world's second-largest economy, keeping the economy running smoothly is crucial. Generally speaking, to observe whether the economy is stable or not, we mainly look at the four major macro indicators, namely economic growth, employment, prices, and balance of payments.

The reporter combed through these four macro indicators and found that China's economic market continued to remain stable:

Look at the "troika" that supports economic growth. In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods and the total import and export of goods increased by 2.3% and 8% respectively year-on-year; In the first four months, the country's fixed asset investment increased by 4.2% year-on-year.

Judging from the data, the growth rate of consumption and investment has slowed. In this regard, Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed at the press conference of the State Council Information Office held on the same day that the number of holidays was mainly affected by the decrease of 2 days in the same month compared with the same month and the high base in the same period, and the growth rate of the social zero fell compared with the previous month; The rain and flood disasters in some areas of the south have affected the construction progress, but with the support of large-scale equipment renewal and other policies, the investment in fixed assets has maintained a steady growth trend.

Different from the performance of domestic demand, the development trend of foreign trade is improving. In the first four months, the growth rate of imports and exports on the mainland accelerated by 0.7 percentage points compared with the first quarter, and the scale hit a new high in the same period in history, especially in April, the growth rate of imports and exports in a single month turned from negative to positive.

Let's look at employment and prices. In April, the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas nationwide was 5 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and declining for two consecutive months, while the national consumer price index (CPI) turned from a decline to an increase of 0.3 percent year-on-year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month. This "one drop and one rise" indicates an overall improvement in the indicator.

Finally, look at foreign exchange reserves. As of the end of April, the mainland's foreign exchange reserves were US$3,200.8 billion, down from the end of March, but still stable at about US$3.2 trillion.

Stability is the overall situation and foundation. It should be noted that against the backdrop of rising external instability and uncertainty and insufficient momentum for world economic recovery, it is commendable that the mainland's macroeconomic market remains stable.

From the perspective of indicators related to the quality of development, the "gold content" of China's economic development is also rising.

China's economy has become stronger. In the first four months, the equipment manufacturing industry above designated size accounted for 32.4% of all industries above designated size, and the added value of high-tech manufacturing accounted for 15.4%; The output of new energy vehicles and solar cells increased by 33.2% and 18.2% year-on-year respectively; Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 11.1%.

These double-digit growth indicators send a clear signal that China's new drivers are rapidly forming and growing day by day, and the stamina and resilience of economic development are increasing.

The rebound is not only reflected in the country's "big account", but also in thousands of industries and thousands of lights.

Each business entity connects the economic lifeline and the urban-rural cycle, and is related to people's firewood, rice, oil, salt, three meals and four seasons. In April, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.4%, which was in the expansion range for two consecutive months; The SME Development Index rose to 89.4, higher than the same period in 2022 and 2023. The development expectation is good, which conveys that the enterprise director is more "energetic" to start a business.

Behind the changes in economic indicators is the accumulation of growth potential energy, and it is also the transmission of development confidence. As pointed out at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on April 30, "the mainland's economic foundation is stable, there are many advantages, strong resilience and great potential, and a good start and recovery are the basic characteristics and trends of the current economic operation."

Some foreign media and international institutions have also captured the positive changes in China's economy. Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao reported that China's economic growth momentum stabilized in the second quarter, and a number of economic indicators improved or maintained expansion in April. BNP Paribas' latest research report upgraded the outlook for the MSCI China Index from a benchmark scenario to a bullish scenario.

However, while we are firmly developing our confidence, we must also keep a clear head.

A closer look at this "report card" shows that problems such as insufficient domestic effective demand, greater pressure on business operations, and many hidden risks still exist, and the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment have increased significantly...... While feeling the warmth, it is undeniable that China's economy is still facing some difficult challenges.

"Persist in taking advantage of the momentum and avoid tightening up before and loosening later" -- the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on April 30 put forward clear requirements for economic work.

The reporter combed and found that since the second quarter, macro policies have been moving forward, the policy toolbox has continued to be updated, and various departments and localities have seized the time window to accelerate the implementation of various policies and measures to stabilize growth.

On the day of the release of the data, two important actions attracted attention:

First, this year's ultra-long-term special treasury bonds were officially issued. According to the notice of the Ministry of Finance, the maturity of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to be issued this year is 20 years, 30 years, and 50 years respectively, and the first issuance will be issued on May 17 and the issuance will be completed in mid-November.

Second, the People's Bank of China issued two notices, respectively clarifying the cancellation of the lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans for the first and second houses at the national level, and clarifying that the interest rate on personal housing provident fund loans will be lowered by 0.25 percentage points from May 18.

Face the development problems and make precise and symptomatic moves. The series of deployments aims to make up for shortcomings, strengths and weaknesses, prevent risks, expand effective domestic demand, and stimulate the vitality of business entities.

"With the gradual emergence of the effect of macro combination policies, the continuous repair of internal vitality, the continuous improvement of social expectations, and the accumulation and increase of factors that promote the sustained economic recovery, the economic recovery trend will be further consolidated and strengthened." Liu Aihua said.

Source: Xinhua News Agency

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