■China Economic Times reporter Liu Hui
On May 12, the "China Economic Security Outlook Report 2024: Seeking Progress While Maintaining Stability and Promoting Stability" was released at the School of Economics of Peking University. This report is edited by Liu Wei, former president of Chinese Renmin University, as academic advisor, and edited by Su Jian, director of the Center for National Economic Research of Peking University, and Qi Zike, deputy director of the Center for National Economic Research of Peking University. The report provides an outlook for China's economy in 2024, and analyzes the risks faced by the real estate, banking and urban investment sectors, as well as the RMB exchange rate, the A-share market, the power supply and demand situation, the coal supply and demand security, the oil market and China's integration construction.
According to the report, the main factors affecting China's economy in 2024 are demographic issues, changes in market expectations, and changes in the international environment. Looking ahead to 2024, China's macroeconomic operation is generally safe, and the natural trend will continue to show a pattern of both supply and demand recovery, but it is still lower than the potential growth rate. It is estimated that in 2024, GDP will increase by 5.1% year-on-year, CPI will increase by 1.2% year-on-year, PPI will increase by -0.4% year-on-year, industrial added value will increase by 5.8% year-on-year, total retail sales of consumer goods will increase by 7.7% year-on-year, fixed asset investment will increase by 3.0% year-on-year, exports will increase by 3.8% year-on-year, and imports will increase by 1.8% year-on-year, and the annual trade balance will be 897.7 billion US dollars.
1
Adopt a policy of both demand and supply expansion
According to the report, the natural growth rate of China's macro economy will remain lower than the potential growth rate in 2024. In view of this, China should adopt a policy of both demand and supply expansion, and focus on promoting market-oriented reforms to improve the market environment.
First, we need to implement an expansionary demand management policy. Demand expansion is dominated by monetary policy, and the implementation is strengthened under the premise of "stability" to ensure precision and effectiveness, and fiscal policy is mainly focused on improving quality and efficiency, focusing on controllable and sustainable risks. The first is to expand consumer demand. Continue to stabilize income expectations, especially property income. The second is to stabilize investment and support investment and construction in key areas. The third is to stabilize exports. In recent years, exports have accounted for about 20% of China's GDP, and stabilizing exports is one of the main areas of macroeconomic control. Fourth, promote fertility. The government can formulate differentiated policies to provide birth subsidies for families with different incomes to reduce the cost of childbirth and parenting. Improve preferential tax policies. Fifth, fiscal expansion should be carried out in the direction of improving people's livelihood. It is necessary to accurately identify the real needs of the people, such as urgent livelihood problems, improvement needs, and the needs of poor areas and low-income people. Fiscal expansion will be carried out to improve people's livelihood, and by improving employment, residents' incomes will be raised, so that residents can share more in the fruits of development and stabilize expectations.
Second, we should implement an expansionary supply management policy. With the goal of ensuring the healthy and stable development of China's economy, improving the quality and efficiency of the economy, and upgrading the structure, the supply expansion should further promote the supply-side structural reform, encourage the independent research and development of high and new technologies, and expand the opening up to the outside world. The first is to encourage the independent research and development of high and new technologies, improve the quality and efficiency of the supply system, and improve the adaptability of the supply structure to effective demand. Establish a science and technology financial system that promotes innovation and accelerate the transformation of scientific and technological achievements. Nurturing human capital. The second is to promote employment. The key to increasing the employment rate is to solve the structural contradiction of employment in which it is difficult to recruit and find employment, encourage and guide grassroots employment, and increase vocational skills training. The third is to reduce the production and operation costs of enterprises. Fourth, we should further open up to the outside world.
2
What will happen to the real estate, stock market, and oil markets?
The report analyzes the outlook for the development of the real estate market. In 2023, the mainland real estate market will basically show the characteristics of "rising forward, suppressing and stabilizing". At present, in the context of major changes in the supply and demand of the real estate market, it is necessary to objectively understand the problems and demand potential of the development of the real estate market. Strengthen the prevention and resolution of risks in the real estate market, continue to optimize the regulation and control policies of the real estate market, reduce the cost of buying a house, and meet reasonable housing demand. With the "three major projects" as the starting point, we will build a new model of housing development and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
The report does not expect significant changes in the overall valuation of the A-share market in 2024. In 2024, the equity market will not change the index to a large extent, and the whole year may be dominated by shocks.
According to the report, global oil demand has experienced a round of rapid growth in 2023, with global oil consumption increasing by 2.5 million barrels per day for the whole year, setting a record for annual oil consumption. Based on the current economic situation, global oil consumption will still increase slightly in 2024, with an increase estimated at about 1 million barrels per day. Global oil supply is expected to grow at a moderate rate (+1.6 million barrels per day) in 2024 to a high of 103.4 million barrels per day.
Looking forward to the trend of the RMB exchange rate, the report believes that the RMB exchange rate is expected to rise steadily in the context of China's economy returning to the potential level. With the continuous advancement of high-level financial opening-up and RMB internationalization, the attractiveness of RMB assets to international capital will be further enhanced, and the inflow of foreign capital will increase, providing important support for the recovery of the RMB exchange rate. In the next step, it is necessary to maintain the basic stability of the renminbi at a reasonable and balanced level, continue to pay attention to the changes and impacts of the external situation, improve the regulatory mechanism for foreign exchange market risks and cross-border capital flows, and maintain the smooth operation of the foreign exchange market.
Chief Producer丨Wang Hui and Che Haigang
Producer丨Li Piguang, Wang Yu, Liu Weimin
Editor-in-Chief丨Mao Jinghui Editor丨Gu Yun