Image source @ Visual China
Text | Lu Jiu Finance
The cost remains high, the Android ecosystem does not support it, and battery life is also a challenge. What's more, everyone is waiting for Apple to enter the pit, but Apple will certainly not come in.
Android phones that do not do folding screens are embarrassed to claim to be big factories.
Recently, at the Boao Forum, Hu Baishan, vice president and chief operating officer of Vivo, said in an interview that folding screens are a new segment of the incremental market in the next 2-3 years of the smart phone market, and the growth rate will be very fast.
But in fact, the sales of folding phones are not optimistic.
On April 28, Huawei will also release a flagship folding mobile phone - Mate Xs2, according to Yu Chengdong, the new version of the folding screen mobile phone has a major improvement, thickness and weight close to ordinary mobile phones, fall resistance has been greatly improved. With virtually no creases, WiF performance is a huge breakthrough and support for more applications.
According to DSCC data, in the third quarter of 2021, Samsung folding screen mobile phone shipments accounted for 93%, according to this proportion speculation, in 2021, all brands of domestic mobile phone folding screens added up, shipments of up to 630,000 units.
After communicating with insiders of a number of mobile phone manufacturers, Lujiu Finance found that in fact, folding mobile phones have an open secret in the industry - manufacturers do folding mobile phones for brand image, layout, and muscle.
From the perspective of demand, many consumers buy folding mobile phones in order to "have face". Folding phones are a "vanity product" for showing off.
In addition, the folding screen cannot overcome the inherent problems such as high cost, awkward positioning, and poor system adaptation.
Lack of confidence in manufacturers, insufficient driving force for buyers, is there a future for folding screens?
01 fold: The big factory also has to fold for the sake of face
The history of folding screen mobile phones is not long, only 4 years, but more and more volume. The five giants of the domestic Android camp, Huawei, Xiaomi, Glory, OPPO, and Vivo have met in the folding screen market to launch a positive PK.
"Whoever doesn't have a folding screen, you're embarrassed to say you're an Android manufacturer." An industry insider said.
Let's briefly review the development of folding screen phones.
In 2018, Royole launched the first Flex Pai folding phone, followed by Samsung and Huawei. In September 2019, the Galaxy Fold, a Samsung folding screen mobile phone, was officially launched, and two months later, the Motorola Razr and Huawei Mate X were officially released.
At that time, the price of folding screen mobile phones was generally around 16,000.
Two years later, in March 2021, Xiaomi released the folding screen mobile phone MIX FOLD, pulling the price below 10,000 yuan.
At the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022, OPPO, vivo and glory have entered the folding screen market, especially the Find N folding screen mobile phone released by OPPO on December 15, priced at only 7699 yuan, in just three days, the first batch of 100,000 units have all been booked, and the market welcome has exceeded expectations.
Minsheng Securities believes that OPPO released a folding screen mobile phone, "the program has far-reaching significance, and the prologue of 'close to the people' may be opened." According to media disclosures, on April 28, Huawei will release a new generation of folding flagship - Mate Xs2, and Xiaomi will release a MIX FOLD 2 folding screen mobile phone in June.
Folding screen models are mainly sold in China
The market has not yet risen, and folding screen manufacturers have "rolled up".
First of all, in terms of price, folding screen mobile phones have entered the era of thousands of yuan, and the new models recently released by Huawei, Honor and Vivo are around 9000. Compared with two years ago, it has basically discounted 60% or even 50%.
In addition, in order to seek the market, mobile phone manufacturers are deliberately looking for product function positioning, focusing on product functions. For example, vivo's X Fold, which went on sale on April 23, once held a financial private meeting with Futu, focusing on stock speculation.
The launch of folding screen mobile phones by various manufacturers (Figure: Huatai Research collation)
According to Counterpoint, global folding screen mobile phone shipments are expected to reach 15-20 million units in 2022. Major institutions have predicted that the folding screen will be a new wave of mobile phone incremental market, is the opportunity to pull the existing users to take the initiative to change the machine, but also the domestic mobile phone curve overtaking, impact the high-end mobile phone "stepping stone".
But a fact that cannot be ignored is the ultra-low sales of folding screen mobile phones.
According to Counterpoint data, the global shipment of folding screen mobile phones in 2021 will be about 9 million units, mainly for Samsung's overseas sales.
According to DSCC data, in the third quarter of 2021, Samsung folding screen mobile phone shipments accounted for 93%, according to this proportion speculation, in 2021, all brands of domestic mobile phone folding screens added up, shipments of up to 630,000 units.
Jingdong folding screen mobile phone sales in December 2021
"The folding screen is purely the market public relations behavior of major manufacturers, which is to enhance the brand tone." Major manufacturers have to introduce new concepts every year, which is the same as stock trading, all in order to fool market consumers. Zhang Weiming (pseudonym), a veteran of the chip industry, said, "On the folding screen, Huawei, Xiaomi, and OV are not opponents, but partners." ”
"Two five- or six-inch screens, folding it back into a nine-inch, ten-inch Pad, is not ergonomic in itself." Zhang Weiming said, "The folding screen is suitable for playing, and it is actually quite fun to turn it over at the beginning." But if you have to use a mobile phone for ten hours a day, to turn it over one or two hundred times, it is a little tired, and most of the folding screen mobile phones are about 300 grams, slightly heavier. ”
"In addition, the cost is also a problem, the cost of the folding screen is too high, one is that the process design is more special, in addition, its accessory yield is also low, so the price can not go down." It is certainly a high-end market, but it is not destined to become mainstream. Zhang Weiming said.
"At present, the major brands do folding screen mobile phones is a showmanship, and we all expect that it will not have too much market." Li Zhiming (pseudonym), a veteran of the mobile phone industry, said, "For brand manufacturers, competitors have launched folding screens, and whoever wants to have them, everyone thinks that you are not the head of the enterprise, because you do not even have a folding screen." So you have to occupy this pit, show that you have this technology, show that you have such an appeal to high-end users, business elites. ”
In addition, Li Zhiming believes that the launch of folding screen mobile phones by various manufacturers also has market strategy factors: "This is a problem of product layout, and products in various price segments have layout pits, which is the basic strategy of merchants." ”
02 Stack: The mobile phone of the rich must be honorable
"At the beginning, I saw the folding screen mobile phone, and I really liked it." The screen is large, which can be displayed in front of friends and can also become a topic of conversation when gathering with partners. Zhao Lijun (pseudonym) is an executive of an electronics industry company, he bought a Samsung folding screen mobile phone, because he often needs to travel to work, he feels that the folding screen mobile phone can be used as half a computer.
In theory, folding screen mobile phones can indeed cater to some users with special needs.
Li Zhiming believes that, first, the folding screen is a problem of consumption concept, and some people feel that mobile phones are enough, and the demand is not enough. The second is the problem of application scenarios, some people are willing to broaden their actual application scenarios, and some people are unwilling.
"Whether it is said to install X, there are still real needs, some people just want to extend the use of habits, do not have to switch between multiple devices." Ordinary communication uses small screens, audio-visual entertainment or office business, and large screens are used. The folding screen can be switched seamlessly. For this part of the population, he felt that this was a very good innovation. ”
Li Zhiming believes that for this part of the people, the folding screen is to reduce the cost of equipment, the original need for mobile phone + Pad, and now a folding screen is done. In addition, it is easy to carry, although the folding screen mobile phone weighs about 300 grams, but compared to the two devices, it is still a lot more portable.
According to the current market analysis, li zhiming has about three types of folding screen mobile phone users.
The first is the business crowd.
"That's the target group that everyone wants to do." Their application scenarios are instant messaging and large-screen offices. This kind of business elite is also the group that major brands want to fight for the most. ”
The second is the enthusiast.
In fact, Li Zhiming said, the business crowd is only a small part. Tech enthusiasts may be more.
"These people prefer this cutting-edge technology and like to try it early, especially after the price has recently come down, more people have bought it." These people for folding screen products, while buying while scolding, if a new one is produced, they will want to experience it, to see if there is progress. Enthusiasts are an indispensable user group for folding screens. ”
The third is female users.
"A lot of female users are planted with folding screens, and they like to buy vertical folding because the phone looks small, like powder and makeup mirrors."
Li Zhiming believes that although the market of folding screen mobile phones has not been good in the past two years, it does not mean that the future has been bad.
"In any case, folding screens are a technological advancement. Because before our screen was all hard, in order to prevent falling we tried our best, and now the material process has improved, making the screen flexible and solving the fragile pain point. Although it is a little expensive, the cost is also falling now. ”
He believes that the folding screen cannot be killed by a stick.
Folding: Loss-making manufacturing shortage markup
Zhang Weiming said that at present, the folding screen mobile phones of major brands are sold at a loss.
"These companies do not expect the folding screen to be profitable, and everyone tacitly agrees." This is market behavior. Zhang Weiming said, "You think, now OV, Xiaomi all mobile phone annual sales are one or two hundred million, folding screens sell tens of thousands of units a year hundreds of thousands of units, this point is insignificant, and research and development costs, marketing costs compared, must be a loss." ”
Li Zhiming believes that the cost of folding screen mobile phones has decreased, and there are two difficulties.
The first screen itself, because the current scale has not yet gone up, so the progress of screen technology is relatively slow. "To promote technological innovation and achieve rapid iteration, it takes a lot of market and user demand to have sufficient motivation to drive, and now it is manufacturers to drive themselves." Like the crease problem of the screen, even if the screen is flexible, it cannot be completely absent. ”
After all, the folding screen is two or three screens, and the cost determines that its price will not be low.
The second is the problem of stacking.
"The current folding screen is equivalent to two mobile phones together. If the folding screen is too thick, holding it in your hand is the feeling of two mobile phones. If you want to make thin, the hinge inside the mobile phone, the steel plate behind the screen, as well as the camera and components, the stacking here is still very complicated. ”
This complex stacking makes the folding screen mobile phone suffer some losses in weight. Zhao Lijun mentioned above, after using the folding screen mobile phone for half a year, still changed back to the iPhone.
"It is still a little inconvenient to use, one is that it is a bit troublesome to carry, a little heavy, not suitable for placing in the pocket, in addition, every time it is opened and closed, it is also troublesome, and one hand cannot complete it." Zhao Lijun said.
The third is the problem of mass production.
"Now the shipment volume is not too large, resulting in a cost that cannot be reduced much." Because no matter what product, it is evenly shared by the amount of products, the larger the amount of products, the lower your cost. Li Zhiming said, for example, a folding screen product has made 10,000 units, and the research and development cost may be several hundred million, which is impossible to price according to the cost at this time, and it is doomed to lose money.
The technical difficulty is high, the mass production is too small, and the price of the folding screen is much higher than that of ordinary mobile phones. There is a folding screen mobile phone price once sold to 50,000.
What are the strategies of major manufacturers in terms of price and cost?
Li Zhiming said that the price of 50,000 mentioned above is actually not the pricing of the manufacturer, but the hype of the channel. "Because things are scarce and expensive, when the supply exceeds the demand, the price of the product will be much higher." In this piece, many brand manufacturers are trading. ”
"Like a certain brand that happened some time ago, they don't produce an absolute amount, but they have this sense of trading." They find ways to make consumers unable to buy in formal channels, so that everyone feels that the goods are strange, and then increase the price in external channels. Li Zhiming said that in this way, of course, it is the external channels that make money, but the brand side can do market or word-of-mouth effect.
Lujiu Finance got a channel-specific PPT that was said to be leaked by a certain brand. In this page of PPT, the brand's strategy of folding screen mobile phones with a price of about 9,000 is to "establish a brand and do a premium", and the strategy of 7,000 price points is to "attack business and re-collaborate". Two strategies at different price points show that the strategy of the brand manufacturer at the 9000 price point is to build the brand, in fact, the main focus is the 7000 price point.
In response to the strategy of "establishing a brand and doing premium", the practice given by the brand is to "narrow the channels on the cabinet, maintain the tight supply of goods, and form a premium effect". The meaning is obvious, that is, through the shortage of manufacturing supplies, and then the channel can increase the price.
Idle fish is a channel for many folding screen mobile phones at a higher price. Lu Jiu Finance saw that on the page of a seller, the vivo X Fold 12+256 product that had just been launched less than a week ago was already on sale, the original price was 8999, and the seller was on sale at a price increase of 600 yuan.
"This will give everyone the impression that a certain brand of mobile phone is also worth 10,000 or 20,000." Li Zhiming said.
03 Question: We are all waiting for Apple to go down
In addition, the system and software adaptation of folding screen mobile phones are also a big problem.
Gao Jianlun, CTO of the Prequel Internet Division, believes that the software ecology is inherently unsuitable for folding screen mobile phones, which is a major problem that the folding screen itself cannot solve.
"The problem with the folding screen is the software, because the mobile app is straight, but when it is cut to the large screen, it will become the same as the computer, the ratio of 3:4 or 6:9, become horizontal. In the horizontal straight conversion process, the software adaptation of the folding screen is not good, which is the biggest problem at present. Gao Jianlun said.
He believes that the folding screen is neither a tablet nor a mobile phone, but a "four-different thing".
Apps that switch between straight horizontals can cause the display to be distorted, and clicking a button deforms, sometimes even failing to press.
Such a large screen, if the game experience is good, but the folding screen play game is not good.
"First, game manufacturers have not specifically adapted to the size of the folding screen. In addition, its screen is also a little awkward, a slightly larger game console is about seven inches to eight inches, and the folding screen is only about seven inches, but the screen midline will not be very flat, which also affects the experience. Gao Jianlun said.
He believes that the folding screen may eventually become an ink screen, and the market is positioned as an e-reader.
Folding screen mobile phones have fallen below ten thousand yuan, into the thousand yuan era, Android giants in addition to fighting a price war, and strive to seek new use scenarios for products, are also looking forward to Apple's entry into the folding screen market.
The research reports of major brokers have a general view that whether the folding screen can break the game in the future and when Apple will launch it will be a turning point. They believe that once Apple enters the game, App software developers will also support the folding screen design, which is of great benefit to the improvement of the Android folding screen ecology. Some brokers even found the patent application of Apple's folding screen, believing that Apple has been continuously researching and developing the folding screen patent, and it is only a matter of time before it enters the folding screen.
Li Zhiming believes that Apple has almost no possibility of doing folding screens in the short term.
"Apple has never done cutting-edge technology, it has always only done the most mature supply chain and the most mature product form." Li Zhiming said, "For so many years, Android has been using a hole-digging screen and a full screen, but Apple is still a bang screen." ”
He believes that Apple pursues a stable user experience and will not risk pursuing the ultimate leading technology.
"The focus of Apple's next generation may be the replacement innovation of Liu Haiping, it may be the hole-digging screen, and he will do this enough." The information I understand is that Apple doesn't have a folding screen, and it shouldn't be this year and next year.